{"locations":[{"code":"SLV","name":"El Salvador","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/el-salvador/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.30 in 1950 → 1.78 in 2023 (−72%). Peak: 6.69 in 1963; the latest value is 73% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2015. The trend broke around 1964 and 2005: +0.03 → −0.11 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.296,"last":1.775,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":6.69},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2015,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.0345,"slope_after":-0.106},{"year":2005,"slope_before":-0.106,"slope_after":-0.0405}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 103k in 1950 → 99.4k in 2023 (−3%). Peak: 182k in 1989; the latest value is 45% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 1991: +2.78k → +0.39k → −2.89k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":102.5,"last":99.43,"peak":{"year":1989,"value":182.2},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":2.78,"slope_after":0.386},{"year":1991,"slope_before":0.386,"slope_after":-2.89}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 66.5% in 2024 (+66 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 29% → 57.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":66.4777,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":28.9971,"end":57.2638}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 38.4% in 1960 → 75.5% in 2025 (+37 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1992, above 75% since 2024. The trend broke around 1975: change sped up (+0.12 → +0.56 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":38.3841,"last":75.5237,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1992,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.124,"slope_after":0.559}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 5,976 PPP dollars in 1990 → 12,050 PPP dollars in 2025 (+102%). The trend broke around 2019: change sped up (+141 → +300 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":5976.0176,"last":12050.0283,"breaks":[{"year":2019,"slope_before":141,"slope_after":300}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1976–1986: 5.59 → 4.19. Over the same years: births 173k → 175k; urban share 41% → 46.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":5.59,"end":4.194,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":173.3,"end":175.3},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":40.9528,"end":46.3719},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.16 → 1.78; births 118k → 99.4k; internet 23.1% → 62.6%; urban share 68.1% → 74.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 9,329 PPP dollars → 11,404 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.155,"end":1.775,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":117.8,"end":99.43},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":23.1093,"end":62.6199},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":68.0879,"end":74.6081},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":9329.462,"end":11404.3342}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.25); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.50). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.25,"r_changes":0.504,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.795,"r_changes":0.048,"effective_pairs_changes":15,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.45). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.959,"r_changes":-0.449,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.945,"r_changes":0.086,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (11,400 PPP dollars) typically have 2.37; here it is 1.78, lower than in 87% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":11400,"yv":1.775,"expected":2.37,"pct":13,"lower":25,"higher":171,"z":-1.08}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (11,650 PPP dollars) typically have 66.3%; here it is 66.5%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":11650,"yv":66.48,"expected":66.3,"pct":51,"lower":90,"higher":86,"z":0.02}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1992; fertility below 3: 2001; fertility below 2.1: 2015; half the population online: 2019. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1992,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":2001,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2015,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2019,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.314,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":-17.96},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.31,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":-17.82},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.314,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":-17.96},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.37,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":-19.9},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.37,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":-19.9},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.13,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":-10.87},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.031,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":-6.53},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.078,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":-8.64},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.873,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":1.36},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.053,"actual":1.8984,"gap_pct":-7.53},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.775,"actual":1.775,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-10.87,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.78, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.775,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (1.78, 2023) only after 2035: reality is at least 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.775,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":12,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.66 (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.62 (−9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.12.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.775},"values":{"2050":1.655,"2100":1.619},"low_2100":1.119}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":159.006,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":-33.15},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":158.164,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":-32.8},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":148.177,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":-28.27},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":162.045,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":-34.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":152.546,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":-30.32},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":126.119,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":-15.72},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":122.542,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":-13.26},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":125.505,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":-15.31},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":104.388,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":1.82},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":117.231,"actual":106.29,"gap_pct":-9.33},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":99.67,"actual":99.43,"gap_pct":-0.24}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-15.72,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (99.4k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":99.43,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (99.4k, 2023) only by 2024: reality is at least 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":99.43,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"year_expected_by":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 71.8k (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 40.2k (−60% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 11.3k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":99.43},"values":{"2050":71.79,"2100":40.24},"low_2100":11.32}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1969–1969 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,054 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Ecuador, Sierra Leone, Uzbekistan, Republic of the Congo, Mexico and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −2.4%, 1–5 years after it −3.9%, 6–10 years after −7.2%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.14, 1–5 years after it −0.23, 6–10 years after −0.40.","data":{"episode":"SLV-1969","kind":"modern","from":1969,"to":1969,"battle_deaths":1054,"peers":["ECU","SLE","UZB","COG","MEX","NAM","HTI","PNG","PRY","GMB"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-2.4,"own":-2.79,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-3.9,"own":-4.11,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-7.22,"own":-7.3,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.142,"own":-0.211,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.225,"own":-0.411,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.403,"own":-0.859,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.02,"own":-1.27,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.13,"own":-1.38,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.82,"own":-1.56,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1981–1989 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 50 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Bolivia, Turkmenistan, Dominican Republic, Gabon, Brazil and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −6.7%, 1–5 years after it −7.4%, 6–10 years after −6.9%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.05, 1–5 years after it +0.28, 6–10 years after +0.58.","data":{"episode":"SLV-1981","kind":"modern","from":1981,"to":1989,"battle_deaths":49925,"peers":["BOL","TKM","DOM","GAB","BRA","ARE","KGZ","CAF","HND","FJI"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-6.67,"own":-8.26,"years":9},"p1_5":{"gap":-7.42,"own":-15.73,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-6.93,"own":-23.89,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.049,"own":-0.136,"years":9},"p1_5":{"gap":0.275,"own":0.036,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.576,"own":0.212,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.6,"own":-1.66,"years":9},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.69,"own":-3.42,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":2,"own":-4.31,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=SLV&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}