{"locations":[{"code":"SGP","name":"Singapore","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/singapore/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.23 in 1950 → 0.94 in 2023 (−85%). Peak: 6.44 in 1956; the latest value is 85% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1975, below 1.5 since 1991, below 1.0 since 2015. The trend broke around 1957 and 1976: +0.04 → −0.25 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.225,"last":0.943,"peak":{"year":1956,"value":6.444},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1975,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1991,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2015,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1957,"slope_before":0.0435,"slope_after":-0.247},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.247,"slope_after":-0.0218}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 44.9k in 1950 → 47.5k in 2023 (+6%). Peak: 61.8k in 1958; the latest value is 23% lower. The trend broke around 1958 and 1971: +2.34k → −1.36k → +0.04k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":44.93,"last":47.47,"peak":{"year":1958,"value":61.78},"breaks":[{"year":1958,"slope_before":2.34,"slope_after":-1.36},{"year":1971,"slope_before":-1.36,"slope_after":0.039}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 94.4% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2003, above 90% since 2020. Fastest growth in 1999–2004: 24.2% → 62%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":94.3776,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":24.2,"end":62}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 100% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (0 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":100,"last":100}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 45,961 PPP dollars in 1990 → 139,593 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":45961.0598,"last":139592.6122}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1959–1969: 6.12 → 3.22. Over the same years: births 61.5k → 45.1k; urban share 100% → 100%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1959,"to":1969,"start":6.121,"end":3.222,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1959,"to":1969,"start":61.53,"end":45.1},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":1969,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 0.95 → 0.94; births 45.7k → 47.5k; internet 80.9% → 94.3%; urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 105,260 PPP dollars → 130,297 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":0.949,"end":0.943,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":45.7,"end":47.47},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":80.9021,"end":94.2852},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":105259.6936,"end":130296.8438}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.66); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.84). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.662,"r_changes":0.843,"effective_pairs_changes":51,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.974,"r_changes":-0.091,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.894,"r_changes":0.207,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (130,300 PPP dollars) typically have 1.02; here it is 0.94, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":130300,"yv":0.943,"expected":1.02,"pct":41,"lower":80,"higher":116,"z":-0.31}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (134,500 PPP dollars) typically have 114%; here it is 94.4%, lower than in 97% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":134500,"yv":94.38,"expected":114,"pct":3,"lower":6,"higher":170,"z":-1.72}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 3: 1973; fertility below 2.1: 1975; half the population online: 2003. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr3":{"year":1973,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1975,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2003,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −29%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-50.23},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.525,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-37.99},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.371,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-31.02},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.44,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-34.33},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.335,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-29.16},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.335,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-29.16},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.468,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-35.58},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.306,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-27.59},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.261,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.26,"actual":0.9457,"gap_pct":-24.94},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.043,"actual":0.943,"gap_pct":-9.59}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-29.16,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.15 (+22% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.36 (+45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.86.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":0.943},"values":{"2050":1.152,"2100":1.363},"low_2100":0.863}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +2.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":46.743,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":0.93},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":46.16,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":2.2},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":41.282,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":14.28},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":44.274,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":6.55},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":41.058,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":14.9},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":43.092,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":9.48},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":52.529,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":-10.19},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":57.627,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":-18.14},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":50.392,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":-6.38},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":49.794,"actual":47.176,"gap_pct":-5.26},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":42.56,"actual":47.47,"gap_pct":11.54}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":2.2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (47.5k, 2023) only after 2035: reality is at least 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":47.47,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":12,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (47.5k, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":47.47,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 32.1k (−32% vs 2023), 2100 — 27.5k (−42% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 9.09k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":47.47},"values":{"2050":32.05,"2100":27.46},"low_2100":9.087}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=SGP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}