{"locations":[{"code":"SDN","name":"Sudan","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/sudan/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.66 in 1950 → 4.32 in 2023 (−35%). Peak: 7.02 in 1971; the latest value is 38% lower. The trend broke around 1961 and 1971: 0 → +0.04 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.662,"last":4.323,"peak":{"year":1971,"value":7.019},"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.000764,"slope_after":0.0365},{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.0365,"slope_after":-0.0501}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 297k in 1950 → 1.68M in 2023 (×5.7). The trend broke around 2014: change sped up (+18.8k → +32.2k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":296.9,"last":1682,"breaks":[{"year":2014,"slope_before":18.8,"slope_after":32.2}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 18.6% in 2017 (+19 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2002–2007: 0.4% → 8.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"first":0,"last":18.6,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2002,"to":2007,"start":0.4395,"end":8.66}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 11.7% in 1960 → 34.9% in 2025 (+23 pp). The trend broke around 1985 and 1991: +0.38 → +1.5 → +0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":11.7196,"last":34.9349,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.375,"slope_after":1.52},{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.52,"slope_after":0.101}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,460 PPP dollars in 1990 → 1,873 PPP dollars in 2025 (−24%). Peak: 4,468 PPP dollars in 2011; the latest value is 58% lower. The trend broke around 2007 and 2018: +117 → −34 → −319 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2460.1887,"last":1873.3856,"peak":{"year":2011,"value":4467.626},"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":117,"slope_after":-34.5},{"year":2018,"slope_before":-34.5,"slope_after":-319}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2012–2022: 5.03 → 4.38. Over the same years: births 1.35M → 1.66M; urban share 33.1% → 34.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,146 PPP dollars → 3,132 PPP dollars; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":5.031,"end":4.384,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":1351,"end":1656},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":33.1426,"end":34.721},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2012,"to":2022,"start":4145.9316,"end":3132.0771}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.949,"r_changes":0.098,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2017, 16 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.48). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2017,"years":16,"r_levels":-0.909,"r_changes":-0.475,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.903,"r_changes":0.046,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.33); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.333,"r_changes":-0.089,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (2,181 PPP dollars) typically have 4.19; here it is 4.32, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":2181,"yv":4.323,"expected":4.19,"pct":56,"lower":111,"higher":85,"z":0.12}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in 3; median gap +10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.122,"actual":4.7218,"gap_pct":14.55},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.128,"actual":4.7218,"gap_pct":14.38},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.434,"actual":4.7218,"gap_pct":6.49},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.323,"actual":4.323,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":10.44,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (4.32) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.323,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"year_expected_by":null,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected this level (4.32) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.323,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"year_expected_by":null,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.00 (−31% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.15 (−50% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.65.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.323},"values":{"2050":3,"2100":2.147},"low_2100":1.647}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 4 revisions (2012–2022) and above in 4; median gap +13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1334.755,"actual":1523.7,"gap_pct":14.16},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1355.334,"actual":1523.7,"gap_pct":12.42},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1330.301,"actual":1523.7,"gap_pct":14.54},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1566.537,"actual":1682,"gap_pct":7.37}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":13.29,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection did not expect today's level (1.68M, 2023) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1682,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.68M, 2023) only after 2030: reality is at least 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1682,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":8,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.97M (+17% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.92M (+14% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 949k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1682},"values":{"2050":1972,"2100":1916},"low_2100":948.8}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1983–1990 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 29 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Eswatini, Madagascar, Central African Republic, Namibia, Botswana and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −3.1%, 1–5 years after it −12%, 6–10 years after −17%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.21, 1–5 years after it +0.75, 6–10 years after +1.05.","data":{"episode":"SDN-1983","kind":"modern","from":1983,"to":1990,"battle_deaths":28929,"peers":["SWZ","MDG","CAF","NAM","BWA","HND","ZMB","BEN","GAB","JOR"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-3.05,"own":-5.59,"years":8},"p1_5":{"gap":-11.6,"own":-16.04,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-17.25,"own":-23.94,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.211,"own":-0.029,"years":8},"p1_5":{"gap":0.747,"own":0.061,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.049,"own":0.041,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":1.98,"own":0.41,"years":8},"p1_5":{"gap":3.77,"own":0.38,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":4.45,"own":-0.59,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1995–2006 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 15 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Tanzania, Equatorial Guinea, Gambia, Madagascar, Togo and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +2%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.09. The war lasted more than 10 years: its first 10 years are compared, the years after it are not (the pre-war trend is too old).","data":{"episode":"SDN-1995","kind":"modern","from":1995,"to":2006,"battle_deaths":15115,"peers":["TZA","GNQ","GMB","MDG","TGO","ZMB","BEN","MWI","GHA","OMN"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":2,"own":-0.63,"years":10}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.087,"own":-0.095,"years":10}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.54,"own":-1.17,"years":10}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2010–2016 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 7,801 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar, Sierra Leone and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +2.1%, 1–5 years after it +18%, 6–10 years after +23%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.18, 1–5 years after it +0.31, 6–10 years after +0.28.","data":{"episode":"SDN-2010","kind":"modern","from":2010,"to":2016,"battle_deaths":7801,"peers":["LBR","GNB","GNQ","MDG","SLE","MWI","ZMB","GIN","COM","GMB"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":2.07,"own":-1.48,"years":7},"p1_5":{"gap":17.77,"own":2.22,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":23.29,"own":2.49,"years":2}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.178,"own":-0.004,"years":7},"p1_5":{"gap":0.313,"own":-0.079,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.284,"own":-0.166,"years":2}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.46,"own":-0.61,"years":7},"p1_5":{"gap":2.55,"own":-0.42,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":3.22,"own":-0.43,"years":2}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=SDN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}