{"locations":[{"code":"RWA","name":"Rwanda","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/rwanda/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 8.15 in 1950 → 3.70 in 2023 (−55%). The trend broke around 1981 and 2014: 0 → −0.12 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":8.152,"last":3.698,"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":-0.00428,"slope_after":-0.119},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-0.119,"slope_after":-0.0481}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 126k in 1950 → 396k in 2023 (×3.1). The trend broke around 1969 and 1982: +2.64k → +9.04k → +2.37k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":125.8,"last":395.6,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":2.64,"slope_after":9.04},{"year":1982,"slope_before":9.04,"slope_after":2.37}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 31.7% in 2024 (+32 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 12.5% → 23.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":31.7033,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":12.456,"end":23.8}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 2.6% in 1960 → 30.9% in 2025 (+28 pp). The trend broke around 1987 and 2018: +0.12 → +0.53 → +1.4 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":2.6,"last":30.9134,"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.117,"slope_after":0.526},{"year":2018,"slope_before":0.526,"slope_after":1.37}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,166 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,559 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.1). Low: 597 PPP dollars in 1994; ×6 since then. The trend broke around 1997 and 2019: −47 → +81 → +145 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1165.7261,"last":3558.68,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":597.2628},"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-47.5,"slope_after":81.2},{"year":2019,"slope_before":81.2,"slope_after":145}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2002–2012: 5.82 → 4.20. Over the same years: births 351k → 356k; internet 0.3% → 8%; urban share 16.9% → 16.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,267 PPP dollars → 2,064 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2002,"to":2012,"start":5.816,"end":4.201,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2002,"to":2012,"start":351,"end":355.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2002,"to":2012,"start":0.2928,"end":8.0239},{"id":"urban_population","from":2002,"to":2012,"start":16.8779,"end":16.941},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2002,"to":2012,"start":1267.194,"end":2063.6647}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.14 → 3.70; births 360k → 396k; internet 9% → 28.8%; urban share 17.1% → 28.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 2,110 PPP dollars → 3,168 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.136,"end":3.698,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":359.5,"end":395.6},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":9,"end":28.8058},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":17.0742,"end":28.8555},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2109.7467,"end":3168.0308}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.844,"r_changes":0.15,"effective_pairs_changes":59,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.866,"r_changes":0.004,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.49). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.952,"r_changes":0.493,"effective_pairs_changes":5,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.946,"r_changes":-0.124,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (3,168 PPP dollars) typically have 3.68; here it is 3.70, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":3168,"yv":3.698,"expected":3.68,"pct":51,"lower":100,"higher":96,"z":0.02}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (3,325 PPP dollars) typically have 42%; here it is 31.7%, lower than in 84% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":3325,"yv":31.7,"expected":42,"pct":16,"lower":28,"higher":148,"z":-0.92}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.68,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":9.96},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.47,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":-9.47},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.104,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":-1.4},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.032,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":0.36},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.809,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":-15.86},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.542,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":-10.91},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.908,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":-17.55},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.089,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":-1.04},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.617,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":11.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.781,"actual":4.0465,"gap_pct":7.02},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.692,"actual":3.698,"gap_pct":0.16}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-1.04,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.70) already around 2017: reality is 6 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.698,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2017,"year_expected_by":null,"years":6,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (3.70) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.698,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"year_expected_by":null,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.61 (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.89 (−49% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.39.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.698},"values":{"2050":2.611,"2100":1.885},"low_2100":1.385}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −3.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":341.41,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":13.2},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":393.072,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":-1.68},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":373.084,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":3.59},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":402.794,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":-4.05},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":497.706,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":-22.35},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":448.667,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":-13.86},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":488.158,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":-20.83},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":430.936,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":-10.32},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":364.593,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":372.375,"actual":386.47,"gap_pct":3.79},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":409.837,"actual":395.6,"gap_pct":-3.47}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-3.47,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection did not expect today's level (396k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":395.6,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (396k, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":395.6,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 460k (+16% vs 2023), 2100 — 401k (+1% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 187k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":395.6},"values":{"2050":460.1,"2100":400.6},"low_2100":187.3}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1990–1990 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,126 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, Malawi, South Sudan, Zambia and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −3%, 1–5 years after it −12%, 6–10 years after −13%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.21, 1–5 years after it −0.07, 6–10 years after +0.27.","data":{"episode":"RWA-1990","kind":"modern","from":1990,"to":1990,"battle_deaths":1126,"peers":["CIV","BEN","MWI","SSD","ZMB","OMN","KEN","TZA","GMB","MRT"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-3,"own":-3.68,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-12.25,"own":-14.47,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-13.41,"own":-17.26,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.212,"own":-0.247,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.069,"own":-0.201,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.271,"own":0.08,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.99,"own":-1.17,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.53,"own":0.15,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":3.12,"own":2.43,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1994–2001 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 6,140 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Benin, Malawi, Zambia, Burkina Faso, Madagascar and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −7.3%, 1–5 years after it +7.5%, 6–10 years after +3.9%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.60, 1–5 years after it +1.09, 6–10 years after +1.04.","data":{"episode":"RWA-1994","kind":"modern","from":1994,"to":2001,"battle_deaths":6140,"peers":["BEN","MWI","ZMB","BFA","MDG","GMB","TZA","GNQ","TGO","KEN"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-7.34,"own":-8.33,"years":8},"p1_5":{"gap":7.54,"own":4.44,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":3.92,"own":3.07,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.596,"own":0.591,"years":8},"p1_5":{"gap":1.093,"own":1.154,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.042,"own":1.141,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":5.8,"own":5.79,"years":8},"p1_5":{"gap":12.62,"own":12.34,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":13.21,"own":13.35,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=RWA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}