{"locations":[{"code":"ROU","name":"Romania","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/romania/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.08 in 1950 → 1.39 in 2024 (−55%). Peak: 3.59 in 1967; the latest value is 61% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1990, below 1.5 since 2024. The trend broke around 1988 and 1994: −0.01 → −0.17 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":3.076,"last":1.39,"peak":{"year":1967,"value":3.588},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1990,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2024,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":-0.0145,"slope_after":-0.171},{"year":1994,"slope_before":-0.171,"slope_after":0.0163}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 417k in 1950 → 134k in 2025 (−68%). Peak: 511k in 1967; the latest value is 74% lower. The trend broke around 1963 and 1969: −13.1k → +21.6k → −5.16k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":417.3,"last":134.238,"peak":{"year":1967,"value":510.5},"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":-13.1,"slope_after":21.6},{"year":1969,"slope_before":21.6,"slope_after":-5.16}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 91.3% in 2024 (+91 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2014, above 90% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 59.5% → 83.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":91.2905,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":59.504,"end":83.5904}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 34.4% in 1960 → 52.2% in 2025 (+18 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1981. The trend broke around 1988: direction reversed (+0.56 → −0.04 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":34.4034,"last":52.1729,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1981,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.558,"slope_after":-0.039}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 16,317 PPP dollars in 1990 → 40,846 PPP dollars in 2025 (×2.5). Low: 13,195 PPP dollars in 1992; ×3.1 since then. The trend broke around 1999: direction reversed (−37 → +1,036 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":16316.8447,"last":40845.9843,"trough":{"year":1992,"value":13195.0418},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":-37.4,"slope_after":1040}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1955–1965: 3.01 → 1.90. Over the same years: births 442k → 270k; urban share 37.7% (1965); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1955,"to":1965,"start":3.011,"end":1.903,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1955,"to":1965,"start":441.7,"end":270.4},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1965,"value":37.7161},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 1.56 → 1.39; births 201k → 144k; internet 54.1% → 91.3%; urban share 53.8% → 52.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 28,156 PPP dollars → 40,504 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1.56,"end":1.39,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":201,"end":143.637},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":54.0783,"end":91.2905},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":53.8267,"end":52.1675},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":28156.1308,"end":40503.8323}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.94); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.99). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":0.937,"r_changes":0.989,"effective_pairs_changes":62,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 33 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.68); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.51). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":33,"r_levels":0.684,"r_changes":0.512,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.58); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.585,"r_changes":0.019,"effective_pairs_changes":54,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.64); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.35).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.643,"r_changes":0.347,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (40,120 PPP dollars) typically have 1.54; here it is 1.54, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":40120,"yv":1.54,"expected":1.54,"pct":50,"lower":98,"higher":98,"z":0.01}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (40,500 PPP dollars) typically have 90.4%; here it is 91.3%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":40500,"yv":91.29,"expected":90.4,"pct":52,"lower":92,"higher":84,"z":0.08}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1953; fertility below 2.1: 1962; urban majority: 1981; half the population online: 2014. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1953,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1962,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1981,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2014,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +17%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.35,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":27.95},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.476,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":17.03},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.47,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":17.5},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.361,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":26.91},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.371,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":25.99},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.395,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":23.82},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.514,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":14.09},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.477,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":16.95},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.535,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":12.53},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.54,"actual":1.7273,"gap_pct":12.16},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.739,"actual":1.39,"gap_pct":-20.07}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":17.03,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (1.39) already around 2020: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.39,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"year_expected_by":null,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (1.39) already around 2019: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.39,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"year_expected_by":null,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.68 (+21% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.67 (+20% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.17.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.39},"values":{"2050":1.683,"2100":1.666},"low_2100":1.166}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −19%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2023 expected 1.80 for 2024; the outcome was 1.39.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.76,"actual":1.39,"gap":-21.023,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.7703,"actual":1.39,"gap":-21.482,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.626,"actual":1.39,"gap":-14.516,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.8031,"actual":1.39,"gap":-22.91,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.67,"actual":1.39,"gap":-16.766,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.5,"actual":1.39,"gap":-7.333,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-18.895,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −5.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":151.984,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":10.21},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":191.638,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":-12.59},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":187.616,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":-10.72},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":167.77,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":-0.16},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":161.913,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":3.45},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":174.561,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":-4.04},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":195.931,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":-14.51},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":192.351,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":-12.92},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":160.408,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":4.42},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":178.045,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":-5.92},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":176.592,"actual":167.5048,"gap_pct":-5.15},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":197.295,"actual":134.238,"gap_pct":-31.96}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-5.54,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (134k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":134.238,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (134k, 2025) only after 2050: reality is at least 26 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":134.238,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2051,"year_expected_by":2100,"years":26,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 134k, 25% below the UN 2024 medium variant (179k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":178.5,"actual_births_k":134.238,"gap_pct":-24.8,"un_lower95_births_k":157.3,"below_lower95":true,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births) / demo_find (TFR), retrieved 2026-10-01","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=RO"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 146k (+9% vs 2025), 2100 — 87.3k (−35% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 27.3k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":134.238},"values":{"2050":146.3,"2100":87.3},"low_2100":27.26}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=ROU&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}