{"locations":[{"code":"QAT","name":"Qatar","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/qatar/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.54 in 1950 → 1.73 in 2023 (−74%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2011. The trend broke around 1968 and 2009: 0 → −0.11 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.544,"last":1.729,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2011,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":-0.00212,"slope_after":-0.106},{"year":2009,"slope_before":-0.106,"slope_after":-0.0405}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.17k in 1950 → 29.5k in 2023 (×25). The trend broke around 2007 and 2014: +0.23k → +1.68k → +0.45k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1.17,"last":29.52,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":0.232,"slope_after":1.68},{"year":2014,"slope_before":1.68,"slope_after":0.45}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 98.1% in 2024 (+98 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2009, above 90% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 24.7% → 69%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":98.0854,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":24.7335,"end":69}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 65% in 1960 → 99.4% in 2025 (+34 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1968. The trend broke around 1994: change slowed down (+0.8 → +0.14 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":65,"last":99.3593,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1968,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.797,"slope_after":0.144}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 75,304 PPP dollars in 1990 → 110,136 PPP dollars in 2025 (+46%). Peak: 149,025 PPP dollars in 2011; the latest value is 26% lower. The trend broke around 2012: direction reversed (+3,112 → −2,243 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":75303.5602,"last":110135.6963,"peak":{"year":2011,"value":149025.1163},"breaks":[{"year":2012,"slope_before":3110,"slope_after":-2240}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1988–1998: 4.52 → 3.21. Over the same years: births 10.2k → 10.2k; internet 3.5% (1998); urban share 91.8% → 95.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 96,676 PPP dollars (1998).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":4.515,"end":3.211,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":10.16,"end":10.16},{"id":"internet_users","year":1998,"value":3.52},{"id":"urban_population","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":91.7637,"end":95.9064},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1998,"value":96675.8125}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.03 → 1.73; births 23.1k → 29.5k; internet 85.3% → 98.2%; urban share 98.8% → 99.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 138,047 PPP dollars → 116,159 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.032,"end":1.729,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":23.11,"end":29.52},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":85.3,"end":98.1523},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":98.8358,"end":99.2835},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":138046.5963,"end":116159.1426}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.39).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.919,"r_changes":0.391,"effective_pairs_changes":51,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.942,"r_changes":-0.16,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.952,"r_changes":0.021,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.834,"r_changes":-0.267,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (116,200 PPP dollars) typically have 1.06; here it is 1.73, higher than in 95% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":116200,"yv":1.729,"expected":1.06,"pct":95,"lower":187,"higher":9,"z":1.82}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (111,300 PPP dollars) typically have 110%; here it is 98.1%, lower than in 87% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":111300,"yv":98.09,"expected":110,"pct":13,"lower":23,"higher":153,"z":-1.06}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 3: 2003; half the population online: 2009; fertility below 2.1: 2011. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr3":{"year":2003,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2009,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2011,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −17%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.282,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-21.1},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.28,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-21.03},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.369,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-24},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.441,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-26.24},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.357,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-23.61},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.165,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-16.84},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.045,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-11.96},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.924,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-6.42},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.949,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-7.62},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.881,"actual":1.8005,"gap_pct":-4.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.773,"actual":1.729,"gap_pct":-2.48}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-16.84,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.73, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.729,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (1.73, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.729,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.62 (−6% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.63 (−6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.13.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.729},"values":{"2050":1.623,"2100":1.625},"low_2100":1.125}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +55%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.27,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":140.12},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":10.663,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":153.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.19,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":141.84},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.028,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":92.91},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.612,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":98.81},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":17.477,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":54.84},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.699,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":44.72},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":24.043,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":12.56},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":26.984,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":0.29},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":26.234,"actual":27.062,"gap_pct":3.16},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":23.932,"actual":29.52,"gap_pct":23.35}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":54.84,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (29.5k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":29.52,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (29.5k, 2023) only after 2030: reality is at least 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":29.52,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":8,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 49.2k (+66% vs 2023), 2100 — 90k (×3 vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 48.1k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":29.52},"values":{"2050":49.15,"2100":90.03},"low_2100":48.1}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=QAT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}