{"locations":[{"code":"PSE","name":"Palestine","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/palestine/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.84 in 1950 → 3.31 in 2023 (−58%). The trend broke around 1989: change sped up (−0.03 → −0.14 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.838,"last":3.311,"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.0274,"slope_after":-0.137}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 45.7k in 1950 → 146k in 2023 (×3.2). The trend broke around 1980 and 1996: +0.65k → +3.1k → +1.39k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":45.68,"last":146.4,"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.65,"slope_after":3.1},{"year":1996,"slope_before":3.1,"slope_after":1.39}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 86.6% in 2023 (+87 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2014. Fastest growth in 2004–2009: 4.4% → 32.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"first":0,"last":86.6377,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2004,"to":2009,"start":4.4009,"end":32.23}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 44.2% in 1960 → 87.4% in 2025 (+43 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1966, above 75% since 2002. The trend broke around 2000 and 2007: +0.62 → +1.6 → +0.23 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":44.183,"last":87.3819,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1966,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2002,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":0.616,"slope_after":1.56},{"year":2007,"slope_before":1.56,"slope_after":0.226}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 3,967 PPP dollars in 1994 → 4,272 PPP dollars in 2025 (+8%). Peak: 6,464 PPP dollars in 2016; the latest value is 34% lower. The trend broke around 2003 and 2017: −6.8 → +175 → −275 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1994,"to":2025,"first":3966.6888,"last":4272.4576,"peak":{"year":2016,"value":6464.1335},"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":-6.85,"slope_after":175},{"year":2017,"slope_before":175,"slope_after":-275}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1993–2003: 6.50 → 5.06. Over the same years: births 108k → 124k; internet 4.1% (2003); urban share 66.5% → 77.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 3,967 PPP dollars → 3,789 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":6.5,"end":5.062,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":107.7,"end":124.4},{"id":"internet_users","year":2003,"value":4.1306},{"id":"urban_population","from":1993,"to":2003,"start":66.538,"end":77.2865},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1994,"to":2003,"start":3966.6888,"end":3788.9265}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.05 → 3.31; births 142k → 146k; internet 46.6% → 86.6%; urban share 84.8% → 86.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 6,142 PPP dollars → 5,562 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.049,"end":3.311,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":142,"end":146.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":46.6,"end":86.6377},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":84.8178,"end":86.8577},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6142.202,"end":5562.4244}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.974,"r_changes":0.123,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 24 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.91); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":24,"r_levels":-0.914,"r_changes":0.27,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.30). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.966,"r_changes":-0.303,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1994–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1994,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.822,"r_changes":0.055,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (5,562 PPP dollars) typically have 3.03; here it is 3.31, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":5562,"yv":3.311,"expected":3.03,"pct":64,"lower":127,"higher":69,"z":0.33}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1966; half the population online: 2014. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1966,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2014,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 10 revisions (2000–2022) and above in 1; median gap −5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.434,"actual":3.7334,"gap_pct":-15.8},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.09,"actual":3.7334,"gap_pct":-8.72},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.85,"actual":3.7334,"gap_pct":-3.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.931,"actual":3.7334,"gap_pct":-5.03},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.931,"actual":3.7334,"gap_pct":-5.03},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.93,"actual":3.7334,"gap_pct":-5},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.727,"actual":3.7334,"gap_pct":0.17},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.946,"actual":3.7334,"gap_pct":-5.39},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.91,"actual":3.7334,"gap_pct":-4.52},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.379,"actual":3.311,"gap_pct":-2.01}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-5.02,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (3.31, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.311,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (3.31, 2023) only by 2025: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.311,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.34 (−29% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.82 (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.32.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.311},"values":{"2050":2.338,"2100":1.823},"low_2100":1.323}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 10 revisions (2000–2022) and above in 1; median gap −6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":190,"actual":148.3,"gap_pct":-21.95},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":175.208,"actual":148.3,"gap_pct":-15.36},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":158.238,"actual":148.3,"gap_pct":-6.28},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":164.099,"actual":148.3,"gap_pct":-9.63},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":164.099,"actual":148.3,"gap_pct":-9.63},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":154.915,"actual":148.3,"gap_pct":-4.27},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":141.502,"actual":148.3,"gap_pct":4.8},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":157.272,"actual":148.3,"gap_pct":-5.7},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":155.866,"actual":148.3,"gap_pct":-4.85},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":146.578,"actual":146.4,"gap_pct":-0.12}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-5.99,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (146k) already around 2005: reality is 18 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":146.4,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2005,"year_expected_by":null,"years":18,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (146k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":146.4,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"year_expected_by":null,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 153k (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 119k (−18% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 49.5k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":146.4},"values":{"2050":152.9,"2100":119.4},"low_2100":49.49}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1967–1967 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,477 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Saudi Arabia, Mongolia, Côte d'Ivoire, Libya, Kuwait and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −3.4%, 1–5 years after it −10%, 6–10 years after −9.2%; fertility (children per woman) during the war 0.00, 1–5 years after it +0.02, 6–10 years after +0.10.","data":{"episode":"PSE-1967","kind":"modern","from":1967,"to":1967,"battle_deaths":1477,"peers":["SAU","MNG","CIV","LBY","KWT","AFG","KEN","NER","RWA","SEN"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-3.4,"own":-3.72,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-10.04,"own":-10.47,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-9.23,"own":-9.05,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.003,"own":-0.019,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.017,"own":-0.093,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.1,"own":-0.238,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.24,"own":0,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.81,"own":-1.33,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-2.59,"own":-3.26,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2014–2014 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 2,358 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Timor-Leste, Gabon, Zimbabwe, Ghana, Solomon Islands and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +1.1%, 1–5 years after it +3.1%, 6–10 years after +2.8%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.09, 1–5 years after it +0.22, 6–10 years after +0.34.","data":{"episode":"PSE-2014","kind":"modern","from":2014,"to":2014,"battle_deaths":2358,"peers":["TLS","GAB","ZWE","GHA","SLB","PNG","NAM","MDG","COM","LBR"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":1.09,"own":-0.28,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":3.09,"own":-2.51,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":2.84,"own":-10.59,"years":4}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.092,"own":0.022,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.218,"own":0.1,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.344,"own":0.169,"years":4}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.46,"own":-0.01,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":1.01,"own":-0.59,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.51,"own":-2.75,"years":4}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=PSE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}