{"locations":[{"code":"POL","name":"Poland","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/poland/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.65 in 1950 → 1.07 in 2025 (−71%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1989, below 1.5 since 1998. The trend broke around 1965 and 2005: −0.08 → −0.03 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.654,"last":1.068,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1989,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1998,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":-0.0834,"slope_after":-0.0304},{"year":2005,"slope_before":-0.0304,"slope_after":-0.00663}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 755k in 1950 → 238k in 2025 (−68%). Peak: 781k in 1957; the latest value is 69% lower. The trend broke around 1968 and 1977: −17.9k → +17.9k → −8.73k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":754.9,"last":238.264,"peak":{"year":1957,"value":781},"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":-17.9,"slope_after":17.9},{"year":1977,"slope_before":17.9,"slope_after":-8.73}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 88.6% in 2024 (+89 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2008. Fastest growth in 2001–2006: 9.9% → 44.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":88.585,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2001,"to":2006,"start":9.9007,"end":44.58}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 48.1% in 1960 → 60.1% in 2025 (+12 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1965. The trend broke around 1986 and 2000: +0.52 → +0.06 → −0.09 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":48.056,"last":60.0853,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1965,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":0.516,"slope_after":0.0603},{"year":2000,"slope_before":0.0603,"slope_after":-0.0913}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 12,821 PPP dollars in 1990 → 46,925 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.7). Low: 11,880 PPP dollars in 1991; ×3.9 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2015: +455 → +887 → +1,568 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":12821.4636,"last":46924.5888,"trough":{"year":1991,"value":11879.7539},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":455,"slope_after":887},{"year":2015,"slope_before":887,"slope_after":1570}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1957–1967: 3.50 → 2.35. Over the same years: births 781k → 516k; urban share 50.9% (1967); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1957,"to":1967,"start":3.496,"end":2.349,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1957,"to":1967,"start":781,"end":515.7},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1967,"value":50.8883},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.32 → 1.07; births 380k → 238k; internet 68% → 88.6%; urban share 60.3% → 60.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 31,700 PPP dollars → 46,925 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.323,"end":1.068,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":379.6,"end":238.264},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":67.997,"end":88.585},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":60.3363,"end":60.0853},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":31700.3682,"end":46924.5888}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.91). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.921,"r_changes":0.911,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.60); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.45).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.597,"r_changes":0.453,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.754,"r_changes":0.208,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.64); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.01).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.636,"r_changes":-0.011,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (43,670 PPP dollars) typically have 1.49; here it is 1.20, lower than in 82% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":43670,"yv":1.2,"expected":1.49,"pct":18,"lower":36,"higher":160,"z":-0.82}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (45,150 PPP dollars) typically have 92.5%; here it is 88.6%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":45150,"yv":88.58,"expected":92.5,"pct":38,"lower":68,"higher":108,"z":-0.35}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1961; urban majority: 1965; fertility below 2.1: 1989; half the population online: 2008. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1961,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1965,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1989,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2008,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −17%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.695,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-27.1},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.557,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-20.64},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.52,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-18.71},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.411,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-12.43},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.352,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-8.61},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.392,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-11.24},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.578,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-21.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.532,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-19.35},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.333,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-7.31},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.297,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-4.73},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.467,"actual":1.2356,"gap_pct":-15.77},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.483,"actual":1.068,"gap_pct":-27.98}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-17.24,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.40 (+31% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.49 (+40% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.99.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.068},"values":{"2050":1.397,"2100":1.492},"low_2100":0.992}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −18%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2015 expected 1.50 for 2024; the outcome was 1.14.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.42,"actual":1.14,"gap":-19.718,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.5028,"actual":1.14,"gap":-24.139,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.3639,"actual":1.14,"gap":-16.414,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.4078,"actual":1.14,"gap":-19.023,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.28,"actual":1.14,"gap":-10.938,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.15,"actual":1.14,"gap":-0.87,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-17.718,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":386.219,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-24.23},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":351.509,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-16.75},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":345.715,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-15.36},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":321.736,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-9.05},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":302.867,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-3.38},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":319.692,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-8.47},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":398.711,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-26.61},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":381.262,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-23.25},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":326.317,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-10.33},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":309.918,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-5.58},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":344.937,"actual":292.6194,"gap_pct":-15.17},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":374.563,"actual":238.264,"gap_pct":-36.39}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-15.27,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (238k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":238.264,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (238k, 2025) only after 2050: reality is at least 26 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":238.264,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2051,"year_expected_by":2100,"years":26,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 238k, 20% below the UN 2024 medium variant (297k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":297.4,"actual_births_k":238.264,"gap_pct":-19.9,"un_lower95_births_k":254.5,"below_lower95":true,"source":"GUS Local Data Bank (BDL) API, variables 59 (live births) and 59049 (TFR)","source_url":"https://bdl.stat.gov.pl/api/v1/data/by-variable/59?unit-level=0&format=json"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 235k (−1% vs 2025), 2100 — 124k (−48% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 34.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":238.264},"values":{"2050":234.7,"2100":123.6},"low_2100":34.84}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=POL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}