{"locations":[{"code":"PHL","name":"Philippines","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/philippines/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.13 in 1950 → 1.92 in 2023 (−73%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2020. The trend broke around 1963: change sped up (−0.01 → −0.11 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.129,"last":1.916,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":-0.0121,"slope_after":-0.109}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 903k in 1950 → 1.84M in 2023 (+104%). Peak: 2.56M in 2010; the latest value is 28% lower. The trend broke around 2012: direction reversed (+19.9k → −75k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":903.4,"last":1840,"peak":{"year":2010,"value":2559},"breaks":[{"year":2012,"slope_before":19.9,"slope_after":-75}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 67.3% in 2024 (+67 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2010, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2018–2023: 44.1% → 77.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":67.263,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2018,"to":2023,"start":44.1,"end":77.867}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 30% in 1960 → 55.8% in 2025 (+26 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2014. The trend broke around 2004 and 2017: +0.23 → +1 → +0.36 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":30.011,"last":55.7733,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2014,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":0.23,"slope_after":1.02},{"year":2017,"slope_before":1.02,"slope_after":0.365}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,504 PPP dollars in 1990 → 10,748 PPP dollars in 2025 (+139%). Low: 4,283 PPP dollars in 1993; ×2.5 since then. The trend broke around 2001 and 2010: +38 → +167 → +287 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4504.4623,"last":10747.5454,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":4283.1597},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":37.7,"slope_after":167},{"year":2010,"slope_before":167,"slope_after":287}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2011–2021: 3.24 → 1.95. Over the same years: births 2.56M → 1.82M; internet 29% → 66.9%; urban share 46.7% → 54.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 6,388 PPP dollars → 8,858 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":3.236,"end":1.95,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":2555,"end":1822},{"id":"internet_users","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":29,"end":66.9078},{"id":"urban_population","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":46.6834,"end":54.4504},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2011,"to":2021,"start":6388.313,"end":8857.79}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.62). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.854,"r_changes":0.617,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.956,"r_changes":0.071,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.921,"r_changes":-0.015,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.978,"r_changes":0.118,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (9,899 PPP dollars) typically have 2.49; here it is 1.92, lower than in 86% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":9899,"yv":1.916,"expected":2.49,"pct":14,"lower":28,"higher":168,"z":-0.98}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (10,380 PPP dollars) typically have 64%; here it is 67.3%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":10380,"yv":67.26,"expected":64,"pct":58,"lower":103,"higher":73,"z":0.29}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 2014; fertility below 3: 2014; half the population online: 2020; fertility below 2.1: 2020. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":2014,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":2014,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2020,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2020,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −7.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":16.67},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":16.67},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.35,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":4.26},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.341,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":4.66},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.608,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":-6.06},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.644,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":-7.34},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.861,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":-14.37},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.894,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":-15.34},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.867,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":-14.54},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.882,"actual":2.45,"gap_pct":-14.99},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.689,"actual":1.916,"gap_pct":-28.75}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-7.34,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (1.92, 2023) only after 2035: reality is at least 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.916,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":12,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.92, 2023) only after 2050: reality is at least 28 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.916,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2051,"year_expected_by":2100,"years":28,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.74 (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.67 (−13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.17.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.916},"values":{"2050":1.735,"2100":1.674},"low_2100":1.174}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −4.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1749.227,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":23.94},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1785.587,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":21.42},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1956.107,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":10.83},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1952.727,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":11.02},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2204.689,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":-1.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2269.315,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":-4.46},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2450.061,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":-11.51},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2488.684,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":-12.89},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2378.041,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":-8.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2419.398,"actual":2168,"gap_pct":-10.39},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2500.423,"actual":1840,"gap_pct":-26.41}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-4.46,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (1.84M, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1840,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection did not expect today's level (1.84M, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1840,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.63M (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.04M (−43% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 354k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1840},"values":{"2050":1628,"2100":1041},"low_2100":353.9}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1978–1991 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 19 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Gabon, Turkmenistan, Bolivia, United Arab Emirates, Kyrgyzstan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +10%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.37. The war lasted more than 10 years: its first 10 years are compared, the years after it are not (the pre-war trend is too old).","data":{"episode":"PHL-1978","kind":"modern","from":1978,"to":1991,"battle_deaths":19480,"peers":["GAB","TKM","BOL","ARE","KGZ","DOM","NAM","MNG","BWA","BRA"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":10.05,"own":9.18,"years":10}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.374,"own":0.166,"years":10}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":2.49,"own":2.67,"years":10}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2000–2000 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,571 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Jordan, Bhutan, Oman, Syria, Paraguay and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −0.1%, 1–5 years after it −0.1%, 6–10 years after −5.6%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.12, 1–5 years after it −0.34, 6–10 years after −0.79.","data":{"episode":"PHL-2000","kind":"modern","from":2000,"to":2000,"battle_deaths":1571,"peers":["JOR","BTN","OMN","SYR","PRY","ZWE","BOL","SWZ","SAU","NAM"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-0.11,"own":0.07,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.05,"own":-0.06,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-5.6,"own":1.5,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.118,"own":-0.026,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.341,"own":-0.037,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.786,"own":0.029,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.32,"own":0.03,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.34,"own":0.4,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-1.89,"own":1.89,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2017–2017 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,627 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Saudi Arabia, Laos, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Oman and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −5.7%, 1–5 years after it −13%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.12, 1–5 years after it −0.28.","data":{"episode":"PHL-2017","kind":"modern","from":2017,"to":2017,"battle_deaths":1627,"peers":["SAU","LAO","UZB","KAZ","OMN","HND","MNG","GUY","PRY","TKM"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-5.71,"own":-7.05,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-13.38,"own":-17.5,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.118,"own":-0.144,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.284,"own":-0.309,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.68,"own":-1.21,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.19,"own":-2.6,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=PHL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}