{"locations":[{"code":"NZL","name":"New Zealand","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/new-zealand/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.55 in 1950 → 1.55 in 2025 (−56%). Peak: 4.31 in 1961; the latest value is 64% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2011. The trend broke around 1960 and 1978: +0.08 → −0.12 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.552,"last":1.55,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":4.306},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2011,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":0.081,"slope_after":-0.121},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.121,"slope_after":-0.00707}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 49.1k in 1950 → 57.7k in 2025 (+18%). Peak: 65k in 1961; the latest value is 11% lower. The trend broke around 1962 and 1980: +1.4k → −0.63k → +0.15k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":49.1,"last":57.705,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":65.03},"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":1.4,"slope_after":-0.629},{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.629,"slope_after":0.151}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 93.5% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2001, above 90% since 2020. Fastest growth in 1996–2001: 8% → 53.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":93.5193,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":8.04,"end":53.241}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 62.4% in 1960 → 84% in 2025 (+22 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1969. The trend broke around 1972 and 2005: +1.8 → +0.12 → −0.15 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":62.3756,"last":83.9979,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":1.82,"slope_after":0.124},{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.124,"slope_after":-0.146}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 30,786 PPP dollars in 1990 → 48,233 PPP dollars in 2025 (+57%). Low: 29,014 PPP dollars in 1991; +66% since then. The trend broke around 2005: change slowed down (+781 → +467 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":30785.7018,"last":48232.6652,"trough":{"year":1991,"value":29014.1499},"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":781,"slope_after":467}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 4.05 → 2.74. Over the same years: births 64.2k → 59.9k; urban share 65.7% → 82.3%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":4.046,"end":2.738,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":64.19,"end":59.87},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":65.6697,"end":82.263},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.98 → 1.55; births 59.9k → 57.7k; internet 85.2% → 93.5%; urban share 85.2% → 84%; GDP per person (PPP) 45,097 PPP dollars → 48,233 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.982,"end":1.55,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":59.85,"end":57.705},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":85.2,"end":93.5193},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":85.1519,"end":83.9979},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":45097.0165,"end":48232.6652}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.26); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.86). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.258,"r_changes":0.855,"effective_pairs_changes":46,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.43); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.43,"r_changes":-0.116,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.10). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.916,"r_changes":0.096,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.62); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.30).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.622,"r_changes":0.298,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (49,590 PPP dollars) typically have 1.43; here it is 1.57, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":49590,"yv":1.57,"expected":1.43,"pct":65,"lower":129,"higher":67,"z":0.36}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (48,330 PPP dollars) typically have 93.8%; here it is 93.5%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":48330,"yv":93.52,"expected":93.8,"pct":50,"lower":88,"higher":88,"z":-0.02}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 3: 1972; fertility below 2.1: 1978; half the population online: 2001. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr3":{"year":1972,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1978,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2001,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.05,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-21.49},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.82,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-11.57},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.953,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-17.59},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-13.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-13.01},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.882,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-14.48},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.127,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-24.33},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.939,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-17},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.938,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-16.96},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.925,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-16.39},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.847,"actual":1.6094,"gap_pct":-12.86},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.746,"actual":1.55,"gap_pct":-11.23}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-15.44,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.62 (+4% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.63 (+5% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.13.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.55},"values":{"2050":1.616,"2100":1.625},"low_2100":1.125}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 8 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −3.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.881,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":-4.52},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":49.421,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":17.62},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":53.291,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":9.08},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":54.546,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":6.57},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":56.284,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":3.28},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.583,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":-0.78},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":67.593,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":-14},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":62.94,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":-7.64},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.335,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":-3.66},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":62.499,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":-6.99},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.977,"actual":58.1287,"gap_pct":-3.08},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":63.615,"actual":57.705,"gap_pct":-9.29}],"actual_lower":8,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-3.37,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 57.7k, 1% below the UN 2024 medium variant (58.5k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":58.49,"actual_births_k":57.705,"gap_pct":-1.3,"un_lower95_births_k":48.8,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Stats NZ, Births and deaths: Year ended December 2025 (released 17 Feb 2026), Table 1","source_url":"https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-ended-december-2025-including-abridged-period-life-table/"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 56.1k (−3% vs 2025), 2100 — 50.3k (−13% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 21.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":57.705},"values":{"2050":56.14,"2100":50.34},"low_2100":21.4}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=NZL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}