{"locations":[{"code":"NOR","name":"Norway","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/norway/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.52 in 1950 → 1.48 in 2025 (−41%). Peak: 2.96 in 1964; the latest value is 50% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1975, below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 1965 and 1977: +0.03 → −0.1 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.523,"last":1.48,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.962},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1975,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.0311,"slope_after":-0.0967},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.0967,"slope_after":-0.00414}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 62.8k in 1950 → 55.4k in 2025 (−12%). Peak: 67.7k in 1969; the latest value is 18% lower. The trend broke around 1970 and 1976: +0.28k → −1.99k → +0.07k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":62.83,"last":55.401,"peak":{"year":1969,"value":67.72},"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.285,"slope_after":-1.99},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-1.99,"slope_after":0.0655}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.7% in 1990 → 99% in 2024 (+98 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1996, above 50% since 2000, above 90% since 2008. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 22.6% → 78.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.707,"last":99,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1996,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2008,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":22.6,"end":78.13}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 48.7% in 1960 → 83.6% in 2025 (+35 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1962, above 75% since 1998. The trend broke around 1971: change slowed down (+1.9 → +0.26 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":48.7021,"last":83.5706,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1962,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1998,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":1.88,"slope_after":0.258}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 56,608 PPP dollars in 1990 → 95,173 PPP dollars in 2025 (+68%). The trend broke around 2006 and 2012: +1,866 → −275 → +816 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":56608.2548,"last":95173.4308,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":1870,"slope_after":-275},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-275,"slope_after":816}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 2.79 → 1.76. Over the same years: births 66.2k → 51k; urban share 60.5% → 69.7%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":2.786,"end":1.759,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":66.18,"end":50.95},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":60.5094,"end":69.7417},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.73 → 1.48; births 58.6k → 55.4k; internet 96.8% → 99%; urban share 81.2% → 83.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 87,688 PPP dollars → 95,173 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.728,"end":1.48,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":58.61,"end":55.401},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":96.8103,"end":99},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":81.2378,"end":83.5706},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":87688.1197,"end":95173.4308}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.81); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.86). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.81,"r_changes":0.864,"effective_pairs_changes":38,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.51); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.512,"r_changes":0.207,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.888,"r_changes":-0.148,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.65); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.01).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.65,"r_changes":-0.009,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (94,360 PPP dollars) typically have 1.14; here it is 1.40, higher than in 78% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":94360,"yv":1.4,"expected":1.14,"pct":78,"lower":153,"higher":43,"z":0.76}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (94,800 PPP dollars) typically have 107%; here it is 99%, lower than in 77% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":94800,"yv":99,"expected":107,"pct":23,"lower":40,"higher":136,"z":-0.7}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; urban majority: 1962; fertility below 2.1: 1975; half the population online: 2000. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1962,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1975,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2000,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −21%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.98,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-26.2},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.8,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-18.82},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.801,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-18.87},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-21.02},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-21.02},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-21.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.986,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-26.42},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.932,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-24.37},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.823,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-19.85},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.833,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-20.28},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.7,"actual":1.4612,"gap_pct":-14.05},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.522,"actual":1.48,"gap_pct":-2.76}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-20.65,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.50 (+1% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.55 (+5% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.05.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.48},"values":{"2050":1.498,"2100":1.551},"low_2100":1.051}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 4 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in 2; median gap −3.6%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 1.86 for 2024; the outcome was 1.45.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.86,"actual":1.45,"gap":-22.043,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.7484,"actual":1.45,"gap":-17.065,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.5353,"actual":1.45,"gap":-5.555,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.4733,"actual":1.45,"gap":-1.581,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.38,"actual":1.45,"gap":5.072,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.42,"actual":1.45,"gap":2.113,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap":-3.568,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":56.942,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":-6.11},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":52.976,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":0.92},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":53.319,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":0.27},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.395,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":-8.44},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.328,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":-11.38},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.92,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":-13.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":65.727,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":-18.66},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":68.328,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":-21.75},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":66.824,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":-19.99},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":66.535,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":-19.65},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.733,"actual":53.4637,"gap_pct":-13.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":55.275,"actual":55.401,"gap_pct":0.23}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-12.39,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 55.4k, 5% above the UN 2024 medium variant (53k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":52.98,"actual_births_k":55.401,"gap_pct":4.6,"un_lower95_births_k":46.21,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Statistics Norway tables 05803 (births) and 04232 (TFR)","source_url":"https://data.ssb.no/api/v0/en/table/05803"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 51.1k (−8% vs 2025), 2100 — 44.3k (−20% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 18k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":55.401},"values":{"2050":51.1,"2100":44.29},"low_2100":17.97}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=NOR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}