{"locations":[{"code":"NLD","name":"Netherlands","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/netherlands/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.10 in 1950 → 1.42 in 2025 (−54%). Peak: 3.21 in 1961; the latest value is 56% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1973, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 1965 and 1976: +0.01 → −0.14 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.104,"last":1.418,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":3.207},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1973,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1965,"slope_before":0.00633,"slope_after":-0.143},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.143,"slope_after":0.00128}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 230k in 1950 → 167k in 2025 (−28%). Peak: 250k in 1964; the latest value is 33% lower. The trend broke around 1969 and 1975: +0.85k → −9.65k → −0.16k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":230,"last":166.588,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":250.3},"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.854,"slope_after":-9.65},{"year":1975,"slope_before":-9.65,"slope_after":-0.164}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.3% in 1990 → 97% in 2024 (+97 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2010. Fastest growth in 1997–2002: 14.1% → 61.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.334,"last":97.0068,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":14.1,"end":61.29}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 59.9% in 1960 → 95.9% in 2025 (+36 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1997. The trend broke around 1994 and 2003: +0.32 → +1.4 → +0.66 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":59.94,"last":95.9386,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1997,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.317,"slope_after":1.36},{"year":2003,"slope_before":1.36,"slope_after":0.656}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 43,128 PPP dollars in 1990 → 71,378 PPP dollars in 2025 (+66%). The trend broke around 2007 and 2013: +1,186 → −96 → +860 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":43128.3072,"last":71378.4856,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":1190,"slope_after":-96.4},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-96.4,"slope_after":860}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1964–1974: 3.15 → 1.77. Over the same years: births 250k → 186k; urban share 60.9% → 64.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":3.153,"end":1.774,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":250.3,"end":185.8},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":60.858,"end":64.2199},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.66 → 1.42; births 172k → 167k; internet 91.7% → 97%; urban share 90.3% → 95.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 63,081 PPP dollars → 71,378 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.657,"end":1.418,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":172.4,"end":166.588},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":91.7241,"end":97.0068},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":90.2788,"end":95.9386},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":63081.4083,"end":71378.4856}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.90). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.918,"r_changes":0.905,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.24); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.13).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.238,"r_changes":0.134,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.53); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.528,"r_changes":0.061,"effective_pairs_changes":39,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.09); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.089,"r_changes":0.245,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (70,200 PPP dollars) typically have 1.27; here it is 1.43, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":70200,"yv":1.43,"expected":1.27,"pct":70,"lower":138,"higher":58,"z":0.46}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (70,490 PPP dollars) typically have 101%; here it is 97%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":70490,"yv":97.01,"expected":101,"pct":37,"lower":66,"higher":110,"z":-0.37}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 3: 1966; fertility below 2.1: 1973; half the population online: 2002. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr3":{"year":1966,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1973,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2002,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −15%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.72,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-13.03},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.611,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-7.14},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.766,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-15.29},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.766,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-15.29},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.795,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-16.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.847,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-19.01},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.872,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-20.09},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.81,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-17.35},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.784,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-16.15},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.764,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-15.2},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.68,"actual":1.4959,"gap_pct":-10.96},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.641,"actual":1.418,"gap_pct":-13.59}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-15.29,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.52 (+7% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.57 (+11% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.07.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.418},"values":{"2050":1.515,"2100":1.568},"low_2100":1.068}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 5 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −8.5%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 1.74 for 2024; the outcome was 1.43.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.74,"actual":1.43,"gap":-17.816,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.7355,"actual":1.43,"gap":-17.604,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.5874,"actual":1.43,"gap":-9.914,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.5386,"actual":1.43,"gap":-7.056,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.47,"actual":1.43,"gap":-2.721,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.43,"actual":1.43,"gap":0,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-8.485,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −5.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":159.384,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":7.16},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":161.788,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":5.57},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":179.792,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":-5},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":179.818,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":-5.02},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":179.49,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":-4.84},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":189.278,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":-9.77},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":186.112,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":-8.23},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":182.002,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":-6.16},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":183.491,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":-6.92},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":184.195,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":-7.28},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":175.403,"actual":170.7948,"gap_pct":-2.63},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":183.966,"actual":166.588,"gap_pct":-9.45}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-5.59,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (167k) already around 2001: reality is 24 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":166.588,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2001,"year_expected_by":null,"years":24,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 167k, 4% below the UN 2024 medium variant (174k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":174.2,"actual_births_k":166.588,"gap_pct":-4.4,"un_lower95_births_k":153.2,"below_lower95":false,"source":"CBS StatLine 85722NED Geboorte; kerncijfers (updated 21 Jul 2026)","source_url":"https://opendata.cbs.nl/ODataApi/odata/85722NED/TypedDataSet"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 164k (−2% vs 2025), 2100 — 149k (−11% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 60.6k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":166.588},"values":{"2050":164,"2100":148.5},"low_2100":60.63}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=NLD&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}