{"locations":[{"code":"NIC","name":"Nicaragua","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/nicaragua/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.12 in 1950 → 2.22 in 2023 (−69%). The trend broke around 1975 and 2002: −0.02 → −0.14 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.12,"last":2.218,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":-0.0243,"slope_after":-0.141},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-0.141,"slope_after":-0.031}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 72.1k in 1950 → 132k in 2023 (+83%). Peak: 153k in 1991; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1983: direction reversed (+2.95k → −0.51k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":72.05,"last":132.2,"peak":{"year":1991,"value":152.7},"breaks":[{"year":1983,"slope_before":2.95,"slope_after":-0.508}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 61.4% in 2024 (+61 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2010, above 50% since 2021. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 30.4% → 59.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":61.3955,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":30.4,"end":59.38}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 39.2% in 1960 → 59.4% in 2025 (+20 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1977. The trend broke around 1971 and 1984: +0.85 → +0.34 → +0.17 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":39.1711,"last":59.4436,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1977,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.847,"slope_after":0.338},{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.338,"slope_after":0.173}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,218 PPP dollars in 1990 → 7,933 PPP dollars in 2025 (+88%). Low: 3,934 PPP dollars in 1993; +102% since then.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4217.6086,"last":7933.4889,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":3934.0925}}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 5.07 → 3.47. Over the same years: births 152k → 144k; internet 0.2% (1997); urban share 52.9% → 54.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,408 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":5.073,"end":3.473,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":151.8,"end":144.4},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":0.206},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":52.8736,"end":54.7839},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":4408.3286}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.49 → 2.22; births 139k → 132k; internet 15.5% → 60.3%; urban share 57.4% → 59.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 6,494 PPP dollars → 7,497 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.492,"end":2.218,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":138.8,"end":132.2},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":15.5,"end":60.3012},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":57.4274,"end":59.1251},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":6494.1492,"end":7496.5306}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.68); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.676,"r_changes":0.29,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.67); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.35).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.667,"r_changes":-0.35,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.66). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.924,"r_changes":0.66,"effective_pairs_changes":3,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.886,"r_changes":0.087,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (7,497 PPP dollars) typically have 2.74; here it is 2.22, lower than in 81% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":7497,"yv":2.218,"expected":2.74,"pct":19,"lower":38,"higher":158,"z":-0.79}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (7,661 PPP dollars) typically have 58.1%; here it is 61.4%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":7661,"yv":61.4,"expected":58.1,"pct":59,"lower":104,"higher":72,"z":0.29}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1977; fertility below 3: 2001; half the population online: 2021. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1977,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":2001,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2021,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −0.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.681,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":-11.83},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.66,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":-11.13},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.692,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":-12.19},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.413,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":-2.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.373,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":-0.38},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.373,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":-0.38},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.304,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":2.6},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.334,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":1.28},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.161,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":9.39},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.161,"actual":2.3639,"gap_pct":9.39},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.252,"actual":2.218,"gap_pct":-1.51}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-0.38,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (2.22, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.218,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.22, 2023) only by 2025: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.218,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.86 (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−23% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.218},"values":{"2050":1.858,"2100":1.718},"low_2100":1.218}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −0.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":180.573,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":-24.57},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":177.946,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":-23.46},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":175.45,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":-22.37},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":151.767,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":-10.26},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":137.489,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":-0.94},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":137.167,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":-0.7},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":132.174,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":3.05},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":134.781,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":1.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":118.285,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":15.15},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":118.261,"actual":136.2,"gap_pct":15.17},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":138.073,"actual":132.2,"gap_pct":-4.25}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-0.94,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected today's level (132k, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":132.2,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (132k, 2023) only after 2030: reality is at least 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":132.2,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":8,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 114k (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 78.1k (−41% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 26.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":132.2},"values":{"2050":114.4,"2100":78.14},"low_2100":26.78}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1978–1979 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 10 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Republic of the Congo, United Arab Emirates, Guinea, Namibia, Honduras and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −1.2%, 1–5 years after it −4.9%, 6–10 years after −9.8%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.03, 1–5 years after it +0.04, 6–10 years after −0.14.","data":{"episode":"NIC-1978","kind":"modern","from":1978,"to":1979,"battle_deaths":10000,"peers":["COG","ARE","GIN","NAM","HND","TJK","BWA","SLE","CAF","PNG"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-1.16,"own":-1.28,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-4.9,"own":-5.23,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-9.76,"own":-13.9,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.029,"own":-0.09,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":0.037,"own":-0.247,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.141,"own":-0.574,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.2,"own":-0.42,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.58,"own":-1.69,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-4.32,"own":-4.3,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1983–1988 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 29 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Gabon, Mongolia, United Arab Emirates, Bolivia, Honduras and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −3.9%, 1–5 years after it −8.3%, 6–10 years after −13%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.01, 1–5 years after it −0.04, 6–10 years after +0.03.","data":{"episode":"NIC-1983","kind":"modern","from":1983,"to":1988,"battle_deaths":29000,"peers":["GAB","MNG","ARE","BOL","HND","BWA","NAM","CAF","TKM","GIN"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-3.88,"own":-5.71,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":-8.32,"own":-14.86,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-12.79,"own":-26.02,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.01,"own":-0.149,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.036,"own":-0.468,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.033,"own":-0.791,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.11,"own":-1.58,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.24,"own":-3.93,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.96,"own":-6.74,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=NIC&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}