{"locations":[{"code":"MYS","name":"Malaysia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/malaysia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.43 in 1950 → 1.60 in 2024 (−75%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2013. The trend broke around 1960 and 1976: +0.01 → −0.14 → −0.06 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":6.429,"last":1.6,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2013,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":0.00622,"slope_after":-0.137},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-0.137,"slope_after":-0.059}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 273k in 1950 → 415k in 2024 (+52%). Peak: 544k in 1996; the latest value is 24% lower. The trend broke around 1976 and 1995: +2.94k → +8.25k → −2.67k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":272.7,"last":414.918,"peak":{"year":1996,"value":543.6},"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":2.94,"slope_after":8.25},{"year":1995,"slope_before":8.25,"slope_after":-2.67}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 98% in 2024 (+98 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2006, above 90% since 2021. Fastest growth in 1997–2002: 2.3% → 32.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":98.0206,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":2.31,"end":32.3382}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 26.1% in 1960 → 77.4% in 2025 (+51 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1991, above 75% since 2020. The trend broke around 1979 and 2003: +0.36 → +1.4 → +0.52 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":26.0669,"last":77.3949,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1991,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":0.358,"slope_after":1.41},{"year":2003,"slope_before":1.41,"slope_after":0.516}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 12,014 PPP dollars in 1990 → 35,461 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3). The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: +950 → +152 → +693 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":12013.6969,"last":35461.4466,"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":950,"slope_after":152},{"year":2002,"slope_before":152,"slope_after":693}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1962–1972: 6.30 → 4.82. Over the same years: births 346k → 349k; urban share 26.8% → 30.1%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":6.296,"end":4.822,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":346.4,"end":349.3},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1962,"to":1972,"start":26.8228,"end":30.138},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 2.06 → 1.60; births 513k → 415k; internet 63.7% → 98%; urban share 73% → 76.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 26,818 PPP dollars → 34,116 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":2.058,"end":1.6,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":513.4,"end":414.918},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":63.6654,"end":98.0206},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":72.9802,"end":76.917},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":26818.4317,"end":34116.2318}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.62). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":-0.853,"r_changes":0.619,"effective_pairs_changes":37,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.31). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.992,"r_changes":-0.309,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.20). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.953,"r_changes":0.205,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.952,"r_changes":0.158,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (32,860 PPP dollars) typically have 1.64; here it is 1.73, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":32860,"yv":1.73,"expected":1.64,"pct":59,"lower":117,"higher":79,"z":0.19}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (34,120 PPP dollars) typically have 87.1%; here it is 98%, higher than in 86% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":34120,"yv":98.02,"expected":87.1,"pct":85,"lower":151,"higher":25,"z":0.98}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1991; fertility below 3: 2000; half the population online: 2006; fertility below 2.1: 2013. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1991,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":2000,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2006,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2013,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-11.34},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-11.34},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.277,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-18.23},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.191,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-15.03},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.174,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-14.36},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.162,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-13.89},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.446,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-23.88},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.906,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-2.32},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.895,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-1.75},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.01,"actual":1.8618,"gap_pct":-7.37},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.764,"actual":1.6,"gap_pct":-9.3}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-11.34,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.60, 2024) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.6,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.60, 2024) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.6,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.53 (−5% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.56 (−2% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.06.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.6},"values":{"2050":1.528,"2100":1.561},"low_2100":1.061}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −9.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":491.602,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-0.6},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":490.768,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-0.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":550.011,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-11.15},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":530.107,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-7.82},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":538.238,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-9.21},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":536.919,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-8.99},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":594.946,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-17.86},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":547.93,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-10.82},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":520.639,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-6.14},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":539.771,"actual":488.67,"gap_pct":-9.47},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":504.947,"actual":414.918,"gap_pct":-17.83}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-9.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (415k, 2024) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":414.918,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (415k, 2024) only after 2050: reality is at least 27 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":414.918,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2051,"year_expected_by":2100,"years":27,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 415k, 6% below the UN 2024 medium variant (440k).","data":{"year":2024,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":439.6,"actual_births_k":414.918,"gap_pct":-5.6,"un_lower95_births_k":344.6,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), OpenDOSM data catalogue 'births_annual' and 'fertility' (via api.data.gov.my); 2024 confirmed in '","source_url":"https://api.data.gov.my/data-catalogue?id=births_annual&limit=2000"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 443k (+7% vs 2024), 2100 — 378k (−9% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 153k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":414.918},"values":{"2050":442.8,"2100":378.2},"low_2100":153.4}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=MYS&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}