{"locations":[{"code":"MEX","name":"Mexico","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/mexico/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.71 in 1950 → 1.91 in 2023 (−72%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2016. The trend broke around 1968 and 1991: 0 → −0.16 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.709,"last":1.91,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2016,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.00451,"slope_after":-0.159},{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.159,"slope_after":-0.0418}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.36M in 1950 → 2.04M in 2023 (+50%). Peak: 2.48M in 1993; the latest value is 18% lower. The trend broke around 1972 and 1994: +47.2k → +6.7k → −13.7k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1359,"last":2038,"peak":{"year":1993,"value":2479},"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":47.2,"slope_after":6.7},{"year":1994,"slope_before":6.7,"slope_after":-13.7}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 83.1% in 2024 (+83 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2010–2015: 31.1% → 57.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":83.1223,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":31.05,"end":57.431}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 50.7% in 1960 → 80% in 2025 (+29 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 2001. The trend broke around 1980 and 1997: +0.79 → +0.45 → +0.18 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":50.7473,"last":80.0409,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":2001,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.789,"slope_after":0.449},{"year":1997,"slope_before":0.449,"slope_after":0.183}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 17,170 PPP dollars in 1990 → 21,912 PPP dollars in 2025 (+28%). The trend broke around 2000: change slowed down (+293 → +78 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":17169.5926,"last":21911.9293,"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":293,"slope_after":77.5}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1972–1982: 6.28 → 4.43. Over the same years: births 2.33M → 2.39M; urban share 60.6% → 67.5%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":6.281,"end":4.425,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":2325,"end":2385},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1972,"to":1982,"start":60.5942,"end":67.4918},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.27 → 1.91; births 2.31M → 2.04M; internet 43.5% → 81.2%; urban share 76.8% → 79.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 20,805 PPP dollars → 21,865 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.269,"end":1.91,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2314,"end":2038},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":43.46,"end":81.1832},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":76.7956,"end":79.4735},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":20805.348,"end":21864.9236}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.58); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.46).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.582,"r_changes":0.463,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.903,"r_changes":0.155,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.987,"r_changes":-0.083,"effective_pairs_changes":6,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.902,"r_changes":-0.091,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (21,860 PPP dollars) typically have 1.89; here it is 1.91, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":21860,"yv":1.91,"expected":1.89,"pct":52,"lower":102,"higher":94,"z":0.03}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (21,970 PPP dollars) typically have 78.5%; here it is 83.1%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":21970,"yv":83.12,"expected":78.5,"pct":66,"lower":117,"higher":59,"z":0.41}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 3: 1996; half the population online: 2015; fertility below 2.1: 2016. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr3":{"year":1996,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2015,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2016,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.149,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":-4.7},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.15,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":-4.74},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.04,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":0.4},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.953,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":4.87},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.893,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":8.19},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.893,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":8.19},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.072,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":-1.15},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.059,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":-0.53},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.139,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":-4.25},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.136,"actual":2.0481,"gap_pct":-4.12},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.79,"actual":1.91,"gap_pct":6.7}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.53,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (1.91, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.91,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (1.91, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.91,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.70 (−11% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.67 (−13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.17.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.91},"values":{"2050":1.701,"2100":1.669},"low_2100":1.169}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +4.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2115.573,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":1.02},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2115.954,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":1},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2052.192,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":4.14},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1978.544,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":8.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1853.924,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":15.27},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1792.287,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":19.24},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2052.508,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":4.12},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2182.47,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":-2.08},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2311.861,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":-7.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2291.582,"actual":2137.1,"gap_pct":-6.74},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1857.407,"actual":2038,"gap_pct":9.72}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":4.12,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.04M) already around 2018: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2038,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"year_expected_by":null,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (2.04M, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2038,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.64M (−19% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.1M (−46% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 363k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2038},"values":{"2050":1644,"2100":1098},"low_2100":362.5}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=MEX&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}