{"locations":[{"code":"MAR","name":"Morocco","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/morocco/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.14 in 1950 → 2.23 in 2023 (−64%). Peak: 7.05 in 1962; the latest value is 68% lower. The trend broke around 1969 and 2000: +0.04 → −0.14 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.14,"last":2.23,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":7.046},"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.0424,"slope_after":-0.141},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.141,"slope_after":-0.0208}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 436k in 1950 → 630k in 2023 (+45%). Peak: 788k in 1982; the latest value is 20% lower. The trend broke around 1982 and 1997: +10.1k → −8.43k → −0.1k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":435.6,"last":629.8,"peak":{"year":1982,"value":788},"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":10.1,"slope_after":-8.43},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-8.43,"slope_after":-0.0957}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 91.2% in 2024 (+91 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2012, above 90% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 15.1% → 52%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":91.2,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2012,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":15.0844,"end":52}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 29.4% in 1960 → 63.1% in 2025 (+34 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1993. The trend broke around 1994: change slowed down (+0.72 → +0.41 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":29.3546,"last":63.1279,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1993,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.723,"slope_after":0.414}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,419 PPP dollars in 1990 → 9,495 PPP dollars in 2025 (+115%). The trend broke around 1999 and 2013: +63 → +207 → +111 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4418.6602,"last":9495.4053,"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":62.8,"slope_after":207},{"year":2013,"slope_before":207,"slope_after":111}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1983–1993: 5.41 → 3.55. Over the same years: births 785k → 693k; urban share 43.3% → 50.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 4,380 PPP dollars (1993); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":5.41,"end":3.548,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":784.7,"end":692.6},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":43.2884,"end":50.4392},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1993,"value":4379.7642}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.48 → 2.23; births 687k → 630k; internet 56% → 91%; urban share 59.9% → 62.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 7,839 PPP dollars → 8,915 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.478,"end":2.23,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":687.3,"end":629.8},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":56,"end":91},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":59.9083,"end":62.6738},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":7839.0322,"end":8915.3516}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.25); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.72). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.246,"r_changes":0.722,"effective_pairs_changes":12,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.73); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.36). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.731,"r_changes":0.362,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.54). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.985,"r_changes":-0.541,"effective_pairs_changes":11,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.847,"r_changes":0.275,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (8,915 PPP dollars) typically have 2.58; here it is 2.23, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":8915,"yv":2.23,"expected":2.58,"pct":28,"lower":56,"higher":140,"z":-0.55}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (9,163 PPP dollars) typically have 61.6%; here it is 91.2%, higher than in 98% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":9163,"yv":91.2,"expected":61.6,"pct":98,"lower":173,"higher":3,"z":2.65}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1993; fertility below 3: 1999; half the population online: 2010. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1993,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1999,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2010,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +4.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":12.68},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":12.68},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.271,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":4.19},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.302,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":2.79},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.158,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":9.65},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.158,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":9.65},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.029,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":16.62},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.563,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":-7.68},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.381,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":-0.62},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.425,"actual":2.3662,"gap_pct":-2.42},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.273,"actual":2.23,"gap_pct":-1.89}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":4.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.23) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.23,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"year_expected_by":null,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.23, 2023) only by 2025: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.23,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.87 (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.74 (−22% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.24.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.23},"values":{"2050":1.865,"2100":1.736},"low_2100":1.236}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":618.973,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":7.74},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":672.606,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-0.85},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":687.671,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-3.03},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":697.053,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-4.33},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":645.146,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":3.37},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":645.146,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":3.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":590.699,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":12.89},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":706.192,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-5.57},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":676.682,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-1.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":689.039,"actual":666.86,"gap_pct":-3.22},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":637.479,"actual":629.8,"gap_pct":-1.2}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-1.2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2006 projection expected this level (630k) already around 2019: reality is 4 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2006","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":629.8,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2019,"year_expected_by":null,"years":4,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (630k, 2023) only by 2025: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":629.8,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2025,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 531k (−16% vs 2023), 2100 — 334k (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 113k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":629.8},"values":{"2050":530.5,"2100":333.7},"low_2100":113}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1979–1980 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,300 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Lesotho, Central African Republic, Egypt, Republic of the Congo, Gabon and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +0.2%, 1–5 years after it +0.3%, 6–10 years after −3.5%; fertility (children per woman) during the war 0.00, 1–5 years after it −0.04, 6–10 years after −0.26.","data":{"episode":"MAR-1979","kind":"modern","from":1979,"to":1980,"battle_deaths":1300,"peers":["LSO","CAF","EGY","COG","GAB","GNB","NAM","NPL","ARE","GIN"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":0.2,"own":0.25,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":0.29,"own":-0.71,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-3.48,"own":-10.65,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.004,"own":-0.029,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.038,"own":-0.147,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.258,"own":-0.672,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.23,"own":0.16,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":0.35,"own":-0.11,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.12,"own":-2.64,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=MAR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}