{"locations":[{"code":"LVA","name":"Latvia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/latvia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.08 in 1950 → 1.34 in 2023 (−36%). Peak: 2.18 in 1987; the latest value is 39% lower. Threshold: below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 1989 and 1996: 0 → −0.12 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.075,"last":1.337,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":2.179},"thresholds":[{"threshold":1.5,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.00441,"slope_after":-0.121},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.121,"slope_after":0.0178}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 33k in 1950 → 14.3k in 2023 (−57%). Peak: 41.2k in 1987; the latest value is 65% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 1995: +0.2k → −2.86k → −0.09k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":33.02,"last":14.25,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":41.18},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.201,"slope_after":-2.86},{"year":1995,"slope_before":-2.86,"slope_after":-0.09}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 92.7% in 2024 (+93 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2006, above 90% since 2021. Fastest growth in 2001–2006: 7.2% → 53.6%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":92.7076,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2001,"to":2006,"start":7.2193,"end":53.63}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 57.1% in 1960 → 68.6% in 2025 (+12 pp). The trend broke around 1986 and 2001: +0.54 → −0.25 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":57.0838,"last":68.6326,"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":0.541,"slope_after":-0.245},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.245,"slope_after":0.0215}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 17,509 PPP dollars in 1990 → 38,801 PPP dollars in 2025 (+122%). Low: 10,255 PPP dollars in 1993; ×3.8 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2006: −1,005 → +1,482 → +773 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":17508.7871,"last":38800.5425,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":10255.1419},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-1000,"slope_after":1480},{"year":2006,"slope_before":1480,"slope_after":773}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 2.18 → 1.12. Over the same years: births 41.2k → 18.6k; internet 2.1% (1997); urban share 70.7% → 68.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 12,215 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":2.179,"end":1.117,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":41.18,"end":18.63},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":2.05},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":70.7111,"end":68.5431},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":12215.0152}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.53 → 1.34; births 20.9k → 14.3k; internet 75.2% → 92.2%; urban share 67.8% → 68.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 28,375 PPP dollars → 37,278 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.527,"end":1.337,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":20.86,"end":14.25},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":75.2344,"end":92.1879},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":67.8473,"end":68.3586},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":28375.1843,"end":37277.7217}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.97). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.905,"r_changes":0.966,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.54); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.13).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":0.544,"r_changes":0.127,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.22); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.36).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.221,"r_changes":0.355,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.41); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.57). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.411,"r_changes":0.573,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (37,280 PPP dollars) typically have 1.57; here it is 1.34, lower than in 74% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":37280,"yv":1.337,"expected":1.57,"pct":25,"lower":50,"higher":146,"z":-0.62}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (37,620 PPP dollars) typically have 88.9%; here it is 92.7%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":37620,"yv":92.71,"expected":88.9,"pct":62,"lower":110,"higher":66,"z":0.34}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; fertility below 2.1: already in 1950; urban majority: already in 1960; half the population online: 2006. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"internet50":{"year":2006,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +8.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.46,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":13.53},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.325,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":25.1},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.26,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":31.56},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.395,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":18.82},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.381,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":20.03},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.532,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":8.2},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.587,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":4.45},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.672,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":-0.86},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.551,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":6.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.57,"actual":1.6576,"gap_pct":5.58},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.584,"actual":1.337,"gap_pct":-15.59}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":8.2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (1.34) already around 2008: reality is 15 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.337,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2008,"year_expected_by":null,"years":15,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (1.34) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.337,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"year_expected_by":null,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.44 (+8% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.52 (+13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.02.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.337},"values":{"2050":1.443,"2100":1.516},"low_2100":1.016}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −21%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2015 expected 1.85 for 2024; the outcome was 1.24.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.64,"actual":1.24,"gap":-24.39,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.8451,"actual":1.24,"gap":-32.796,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.6096,"actual":1.24,"gap":-22.964,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.5472,"actual":1.24,"gap":-19.857,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.4,"actual":1.24,"gap":-11.429,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.33,"actual":1.24,"gap":-6.767,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-21.41,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +0.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":19.016,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":6.68},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":19.168,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":5.83},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.836,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":20.49},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":20.162,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":0.62},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":21.064,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":-3.69},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":23.347,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":-13.11},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":24.223,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":-16.25},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":22.409,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":-9.47},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":19.66,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":3.18},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":19.428,"actual":20.286,"gap_pct":4.42},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":15.996,"actual":14.25,"gap_pct":-10.92}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":0.62,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection did not expect today's level (14.3k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":14.25,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (14.3k, 2023) only by 2027: reality is at least 4 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":14.25,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2027,"year_expected_by":2027,"years":4,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 12.2k (−14% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.32k (−56% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":14.25},"values":{"2050":12.21,"2100":6.321},"low_2100":1.797}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=LVA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}