{"locations":[{"code":"LTU","name":"Lithuania","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/lithuania/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.71 in 1950 → 1.04 in 2025 (−62%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1988, below 1.5 since 2020. The trend broke around 2006 and 2017: −0.03 → +0.03 → −0.09 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.713,"last":1.04,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1988,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":-0.0255,"slope_after":0.0327},{"year":2017,"slope_before":0.0327,"slope_after":-0.0876}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 53.5k in 1950 → 17.6k in 2025 (−67%). Peak: 63k in 1961; the latest value is 72% lower. The trend broke around 1991 and 1997: −0.05k → −3.11k → −0.48k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":53.54,"last":17.642,"peak":{"year":1961,"value":63.01},"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.053,"slope_after":-3.11},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-3.11,"slope_after":-0.484}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.2% in 2024 (+89 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2008. Fastest growth in 2001–2006: 7.2% → 43.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":89.1612,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2001,"to":2006,"start":7.1794,"end":43.9}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 39.8% in 1960 → 69.1% in 2025 (+29 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1970. The trend broke around 1986: direction reversed (+1.1 → −0.04 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":39.761,"last":69.0816,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1970,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":1.08,"slope_after":-0.0412}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 20,594 PPP dollars in 1990 → 48,840 PPP dollars in 2025 (+137%). Low: 11,691 PPP dollars in 1994; ×4.2 since then. The trend broke around 1996: direction reversed (−1,303 → +1,313 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":20594.0624,"last":48839.5436,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":11690.8861},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-1300,"slope_after":1310}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1992–2002: 1.97 → 1.23. Over the same years: births 54.6k → 29.6k; internet 17.7% (2002); urban share 67.6% → 66.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 15,286 PPP dollars → 18,223 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":1.97,"end":1.231,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":54.64,"end":29.6},{"id":"internet_users","year":2002,"value":17.69},{"id":"urban_population","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":67.561,"end":66.8887},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1992,"to":2002,"start":15286.204,"end":18223.4783}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.71 → 1.04; births 31.7k → 17.6k; internet 71.4% → 89.2%; urban share 67.2% → 69.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 35,265 PPP dollars → 48,840 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.705,"end":1.04,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":31.73,"end":17.642},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":71.3781,"end":89.1612},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":67.2282,"end":69.0816},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":35264.7149,"end":48839.5436}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.91); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.90). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.906,"r_changes":0.899,"effective_pairs_changes":36,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 30 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.01); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":30,"r_levels":0.005,"r_changes":0.157,"effective_pairs_changes":16,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.795,"r_changes":0.006,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.29); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.293,"r_changes":0.288,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (46,330 PPP dollars) typically have 1.46; here it is 1.18, lower than in 81% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":46330,"yv":1.18,"expected":1.46,"pct":19,"lower":37,"higher":159,"z":-0.8}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (47,460 PPP dollars) typically have 93.4%; here it is 89.2%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":47460,"yv":89.16,"expected":93.4,"pct":36,"lower":63,"higher":113,"z":-0.38}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; urban majority: 1970; fertility below 2.1: 1978; half the population online: 2008. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1970,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1978,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2008,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.595,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-22.48},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.483,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-16.62},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.49,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-17.01},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.435,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-13.83},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.405,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-11.99},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.53,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-19.18},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.64,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-24.6},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.634,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-24.33},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.681,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-26.44},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.709,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-27.65},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.701,"actual":1.2365,"gap_pct":-27.31},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.636,"actual":1.04,"gap_pct":-36.43}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-23.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.35 (+30% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.45 (+40% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.95.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.04},"values":{"2050":1.354,"2100":1.454},"low_2100":0.954}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −27%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2015 expected 1.74 for 2024; the outcome was 1.11.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.68,"actual":1.11,"gap":-33.929,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.7374,"actual":1.11,"gap":-36.111,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.6125,"actual":1.11,"gap":-31.164,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.4504,"actual":1.11,"gap":-23.469,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.23,"actual":1.11,"gap":-9.756,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.17,"actual":1.11,"gap":-5.128,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-27.317,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −30%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":31.507,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-32.93},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":30.812,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-31.41},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":28.153,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-24.94},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":28.603,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-26.12},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":28.381,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-25.54},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":30.195,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-30.01},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":34.756,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-39.2},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":32.219,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-34.41},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":29.788,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-29.06},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":30.232,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-30.1},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":26.134,"actual":21.133,"gap_pct":-19.14},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":24.281,"actual":17.642,"gap_pct":-27.34}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-29.54,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (17.6k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":17.642,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (17.6k, 2025) only after 2050: reality is at least 26 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":17.642,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2051,"year_expected_by":2100,"years":26,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 17.6k, 20% below the UN 2024 medium variant (22.1k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":22.1,"actual_births_k":17.642,"gap_pct":-20.2,"un_lower95_births_k":18.7,"below_lower95":true,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births); State Data Agency via LRT (TFR)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=LT"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 16.2k (−8% vs 2025), 2100 — 7.41k (−58% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.71k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":17.642},"values":{"2050":16.22,"2100":7.407},"low_2100":1.713}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=LTU&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}