{"locations":[{"code":"LBY","name":"Libya","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/libya/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.01 in 1950 → 2.36 in 2023 (−66%). Peak: 8.10 in 1971; the latest value is 71% lower. The trend broke around 1977 and 1997: +0.05 → −0.27 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.009,"last":2.355,"peak":{"year":1971,"value":8.095},"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.0458,"slope_after":-0.266},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.266,"slope_after":-0.0205}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 55.6k in 1950 → 124k in 2023 (+124%). Peak: 158k in 2011; the latest value is 21% lower. The trend broke around 1982 and 1992: +3.03k → −2.89k → +1k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":55.56,"last":124.4,"peak":{"year":2011,"value":158},"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":3.03,"slope_after":-2.89},{"year":1992,"slope_before":-2.89,"slope_after":1}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82% in 2024 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2009, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2014–2019: 17.8% → 71.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":81.9545,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2009,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2014,"to":2019,"start":17.76,"end":71.4041}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 23.3% in 1960 → 87.9% in 2025 (+65 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1971, above 75% since 1984. The trend broke around 1978 and 1998: +2.9 → +0.91 → +0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":23.2681,"last":87.9112,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1971,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1984,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":2.95,"slope_after":0.914},{"year":1998,"slope_before":0.914,"slope_after":0.0257}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 18,127 PPP dollars in 1990 → 14,118 PPP dollars in 2025 (−22%). Peak: 22,422 PPP dollars in 2007; the latest value is 37% lower. The trend broke around 2009 and 2015: +124 → −1,164 → −35 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":18126.587,"last":14118.2064,"peak":{"year":2007,"value":22422.0118},"breaks":[{"year":2009,"slope_before":124,"slope_after":-1160},{"year":2015,"slope_before":-1160,"slope_after":-34.9}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1983–1993: 6.91 → 3.88. Over the same years: births 145k → 111k; urban share 74.3% → 82.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 18,435 PPP dollars (1993); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":6.91,"end":3.883,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":144.9,"end":110.9},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1983,"to":1993,"start":74.3337,"end":82.9072},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1993,"value":18434.6411}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.72 → 2.36; births 142k → 124k; internet 16.5% → 82.1%; urban share 88% → 87.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 16,558 PPP dollars → 12,477 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.716,"end":2.355,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":142.1,"end":124.4},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":16.5,"end":82.1047},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":88.0451,"end":87.8647},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":16557.5009,"end":12476.5975}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.35).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.545,"r_changes":0.353,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 26 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.44); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":26,"r_levels":-0.443,"r_changes":-0.117,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.824,"r_changes":0.158,"effective_pairs_changes":5,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.33); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.332,"r_changes":-0.081,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (12,480 PPP dollars) typically have 2.30; here it is 2.36, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":12480,"yv":2.355,"expected":2.3,"pct":55,"lower":108,"higher":88,"z":0.1}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (12,580 PPP dollars) typically have 67.8%; here it is 82%, higher than in 94% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":12580,"yv":81.95,"expected":67.8,"pct":94,"lower":166,"higher":10,"z":1.27}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1971; fertility below 3: 1999; half the population online: 2019. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1971,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1999,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2019,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":24.08},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":24.08},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.204,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":18.22},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.264,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":15.09},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.264,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":15.09},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.264,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":15.09},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.169,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":20.13},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.148,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":21.3},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.315,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":12.55},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.208,"actual":2.6056,"gap_pct":18.01},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.355,"actual":2.355,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":18.01,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.36) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.355,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"year_expected_by":null,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (2.36) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.355,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"year_expected_by":null,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.82 (−23% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.72 (−27% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.22.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.355},"values":{"2050":1.815,"2100":1.716},"low_2100":1.216}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +6.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":140.149,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":-2.06},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":124.086,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":10.62},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":129.406,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":6.07},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":134.247,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":2.24},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":135.681,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":1.16},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":136.478,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":0.57},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":126.541,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":8.47},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":120.119,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":14.27},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":121.407,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":13.06},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":120.945,"actual":137.26,"gap_pct":13.49},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":116.411,"actual":124.4,"gap_pct":6.86}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":6.86,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (124k) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":124.4,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"year_expected_by":null,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (124k) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":124.4,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"year_expected_by":null,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 117k (−6% vs 2023), 2100 — 90.2k (−28% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 36.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":124.4},"values":{"2050":116.5,"2100":90.17},"low_2100":36.82}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2011–2011 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 3,762 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Morocco, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Nicaragua, Ecuador and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −1.3%, 1–5 years after it −16%, 6–10 years after −23%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.09, 1–5 years after it +0.25, 6–10 years after +0.43.","data":{"episode":"LBY-2011","kind":"modern","from":2011,"to":2011,"battle_deaths":3762,"peers":["MAR","ZAF","KAZ","NIC","ECU","PAN","CPV","DOM","GUY","MNG"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-1.26,"own":-0.66,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-16.21,"own":-17.37,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-23.29,"own":-31.82,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.091,"own":0.123,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.249,"own":0.288,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.425,"own":0.298,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.84,"own":0.94,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.75,"own":-2.18,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-4.16,"own":-5.72,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2016–2019 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 3,821 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Honduras, Guyana, Kazakhstan, Botswana, Morocco and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −3.7%, 1–5 years after it −7.7%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.16, 1–5 years after it −0.39.","data":{"episode":"LBY-2016","kind":"modern","from":2016,"to":2019,"battle_deaths":3821,"peers":["HND","GUY","KAZ","BWA","MAR","PRY","DJI","SAU","LAO","ZAF"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-3.71,"own":-5.25,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":-7.73,"own":-10.96,"years":4}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.155,"own":-0.135,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.388,"own":-0.354,"years":4}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.45,"own":-1.74,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":-2.74,"own":-3.34,"years":4}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=LBY&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}