{"locations":[{"code":"LBN","name":"Lebanon","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/lebanon/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.81 in 1950 → 2.24 in 2023 (−61%). The trend broke around 1963 and 1996: 0 → −0.1 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.805,"last":2.24,"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.00397,"slope_after":-0.1},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.1,"slope_after":-0.012}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 55.5k in 1950 → 93.2k in 2023 (+68%). Peak: 127k in 2015; the latest value is 26% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 1996: +1.12k → −1.94k → +0.67k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":55.54,"last":93.2,"peak":{"year":2015,"value":126.6},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":1.12,"slope_after":-1.94},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-1.94,"slope_after":0.668}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 80.6% in 2024 (+81 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 22.5% → 70.5%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":80.634,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2008,"to":2013,"start":22.53,"end":70.5}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 41.7% in 1960 → 91% in 2025 (+49 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1965, above 75% since 1981. The trend broke around 1988: change slowed down (+1.1 → +0.2 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":41.6676,"last":90.9602,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1965,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":1981,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":1.13,"slope_after":0.199}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 5,346 PPP dollars in 1990 → 10,469 PPP dollars in 2024 (+96%). Peak: 17,391 PPP dollars in 2010; the latest value is 40% lower. The trend broke around 2011 and 2018: +415 → −141 → −927 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":5345.5121,"last":10469.2211,"peak":{"year":2010,"value":17390.7584},"breaks":[{"year":2011,"slope_before":415,"slope_after":-141},{"year":2018,"slope_before":-141,"slope_after":-927}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 5.57 → 4.28. Over the same years: births 77.6k → 87.8k; urban share 54.4% → 70.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":5.569,"end":4.279,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":77.64,"end":87.83},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":54.3915,"end":70.1817},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.36 → 2.24; births 104k → 93.2k; internet 70.5% → 81.7%; urban share 88.2% → 90.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 16,396 PPP dollars → 11,330 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.361,"end":2.24,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":103.5,"end":93.2},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":70.5,"end":81.7059},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":88.2165,"end":90.4524},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":16396.4969,"end":11330.2687}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.28). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.804,"r_changes":0.283,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.66). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.536,"r_changes":0.664,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.98); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.98,"r_changes":-0.021,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.792,"r_changes":0.034,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (11,330 PPP dollars) typically have 2.37; here it is 2.24, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":11330,"yv":2.24,"expected":2.37,"pct":43,"lower":85,"higher":111,"z":-0.22}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (10,470 PPP dollars) typically have 64.2%; here it is 80.6%, higher than in 96% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":10470,"yv":80.63,"expected":64.2,"pct":95,"lower":169,"higher":7,"z":1.47}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1965; fertility below 3: 1993; half the population online: 2011. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1965,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1993,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2011,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +24%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.099,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":12.25},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":24.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.921,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":22.65},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.032,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":15.95},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.032,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":15.95},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":27.36},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.684,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":39.92},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.478,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":59.42},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.709,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":37.87},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.704,"actual":2.3562,"gap_pct":38.27},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.058,"actual":2.24,"gap_pct":8.84}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":24.01,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.90 (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.75 (−22% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.25.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.24},"values":{"2050":1.904,"2100":1.747},"low_2100":1.247}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +63%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":70.394,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":58.6},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":66.401,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":68.14},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":66.135,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":68.81},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":65.72,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":69.88},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":73.055,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":52.82},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":68.367,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":63.3},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.78,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":80.71},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":67.554,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":65.27},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":90.683,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":23.11},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":91.485,"actual":111.644,"gap_pct":22.04},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":76.066,"actual":93.2,"gap_pct":22.53}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":63.3,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (93.2k, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":93.2,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 86.6k (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 66.1k (−29% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 25.3k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":93.2},"values":{"2050":86.55,"2100":66.05},"low_2100":25.26}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1958–1958 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,400 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Lesotho, Mauritius and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −0.8%, 1–5 years after it −0.9%, 6–10 years after −2.2%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.05, 1–5 years after it +0.01, 6–10 years after −0.02.","data":{"episode":"LBN-1958","kind":"modern","from":1958,"to":1958,"battle_deaths":1400,"peers":["TJK","UZB","AZE","LSO","MUS","PAN","PNG","CAF","LKA","NAM"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-0.83,"own":-0.53,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.91,"own":-0.92,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-2.22,"own":-6.39,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.046,"own":0.004,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.008,"own":0.068,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.015,"own":-0.159,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.25,"own":-0.24,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.15,"own":-0.53,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.04,"own":-2.81,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1976–1976 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 62 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Kyrgyzstan, Albania, Azerbaijan, Guyana, Jamaica and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +0.7%, 1–5 years after it +1.7%, 6–10 years after −0.8%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.03, 1–5 years after it +0.06, 6–10 years after +0.01.","data":{"episode":"LBN-1976","kind":"modern","from":1976,"to":1976,"battle_deaths":62000,"peers":["KGZ","ALB","AZE","GUY","JAM","BRA","PAN","FJI","PRY","DOM"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":0.72,"own":0.47,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":1.65,"own":2.05,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.77,"own":1,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.034,"own":-0.003,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.055,"own":0.092,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.006,"own":0.292,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.61,"own":0.75,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":1.12,"own":1.94,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.26,"own":2.85,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1984–1984 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 6,000 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Brazil, Guyana, Fiji, Kyrgyzstan, Costa Rica and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −2.7%, 1–5 years after it −2%, 6–10 years after −7.9%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.12, 1–5 years after it −0.15, 6–10 years after −0.14.","data":{"episode":"LBN-1984","kind":"modern","from":1984,"to":1984,"battle_deaths":6000,"peers":["BRA","GUY","FJI","KGZ","CRI","DOM","JAM","ALB","KAZ","ECU"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-2.71,"own":-2.21,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-2.02,"own":-4.47,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-7.85,"own":-13.21,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.121,"own":0.028,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.151,"own":0.096,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.136,"own":0.196,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.16,"own":-0.59,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.76,"own":-1.64,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-4.72,"own":-4.47,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2006–2006 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 1,189 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Kazakhstan, United Arab Emirates, Mongolia, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −4.4%, 1–5 years after it −4.9%, 6–10 years after +6.7%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.13, 1–5 years after it −0.17, 6–10 years after +0.07.","data":{"episode":"LBN-2006","kind":"modern","from":2006,"to":2006,"battle_deaths":1189,"peers":["KAZ","ARE","MNG","QAT","KGZ","BHR","ARG","JAM","SLV","VNM"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-4.38,"own":-2.82,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-4.92,"own":2.74,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":6.66,"own":30.15,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.132,"own":-0.07,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.168,"own":0.041,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.065,"own":0.395,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.94,"own":-0.45,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.53,"own":0.73,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.38,"own":3.34,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=LBN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}