{"locations":[{"code":"KAZ","name":"Kazakhstan","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/kazakhstan/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.56 in 1950 → 2.57 in 2025 (−44%). Low: 1.90 in 2000; +35% since then. The trend broke around 2001 and 2019: −0.05 → +0.06 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":4.56,"last":2.57,"trough":{"year":2000,"value":1.898},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.0548,"slope_after":0.0578},{"year":2019,"slope_before":0.0578,"slope_after":-0.0437}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 239k in 1950 → 335k in 2025 (+40%). Peak: 460k in 2021; the latest value is 27% lower. The trend broke around 1988 and 1997: +4.62k → −18.7k → +6.16k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":239.1,"last":335.005,"peak":{"year":2021,"value":459.5},"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":4.62,"slope_after":-18.7},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-18.7,"slope_after":6.16}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 93.4% in 2024 (+93 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2011, above 90% since 2021. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 4% → 61.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":93.3917,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":4.02,"end":61.9066}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 44.7% in 1960 → 62.4% in 2025 (+18 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1969. The trend broke around 1988 and 2011: +0.43 → −0.17 → +0.65 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":44.7324,"last":62.3856,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.434,"slope_after":-0.169},{"year":2011,"slope_before":-0.169,"slope_after":0.646}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 16,838 PPP dollars in 1990 → 37,851 PPP dollars in 2025 (+125%). Low: 10,600 PPP dollars in 1995; ×3.6 since then. The trend broke around 1997 and 2011: −894 → +1,341 → +552 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":16837.6907,"last":37850.5791,"trough":{"year":1995,"value":10600.3302},"breaks":[{"year":1997,"slope_before":-894,"slope_after":1340},{"year":2011,"slope_before":1340,"slope_after":552}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 3.12 → 1.97. Over the same years: births 446k → 264k; internet 0.1% (1997); urban share 57.1% → 56.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 11,299 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":3.122,"end":1.97,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":445.6,"end":264.4},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":0.0646},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":57.0745,"end":56.4887},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":11298.5805}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 2.76 → 2.57; births 407k → 335k; internet 70.8% → 93.4%; urban share 56.1% → 62.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 30,894 PPP dollars → 37,851 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":2.755,"end":2.57,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":407.1,"end":335.005},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":70.8299,"end":93.3917},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":56.1106,"end":62.3856},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":30893.7595,"end":37850.5791}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.10); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.93). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":-0.097,"r_changes":0.934,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.14). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":32,"r_levels":0.856,"r_changes":0.144,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.67); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.671,"r_changes":0.089,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.793,"r_changes":0.172,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (34,700 PPP dollars) typically have 1.61; here it is 2.96, higher than in 98% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":34700,"yv":2.96,"expected":1.61,"pct":98,"lower":193,"higher":3,"z":2.28}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (35,970 PPP dollars) typically have 88.1%; here it is 93.4%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":35970,"yv":93.39,"expected":88.1,"pct":68,"lower":120,"higher":56,"z":0.48}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1969; fertility below 3: 1989; fertility below 2.1: 1996; half the population online: 2011. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1969,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1989,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1996,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2011,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +37%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":42.67},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":57.68},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":61.95},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":61.95},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.026,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":47.88},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.026,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":47.88},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.385,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":25.62},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.285,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":31.12},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.436,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":22.99},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.458,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":21.89},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.622,"actual":2.996,"gap_pct":14.26},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":2.975,"actual":2.57,"gap_pct":-13.61}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":36.9,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected this level (2.57) already around 2024: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":2.57,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2024,"year_expected_by":null,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.57, 2025) only after 2030: reality is at least 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":2.57,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.39 (−7% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.94 (−25% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.44.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":2.57},"values":{"2050":2.393,"2100":1.938},"low_2100":1.438}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +44%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":260.654,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":53.85},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":217.716,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":84.19},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":199.482,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":101.03},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":201.382,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":99.13},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":242.165,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":65.6},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":247.265,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":62.18},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":304.528,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":31.69},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":297.181,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":34.94},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":330.547,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":21.32},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":332.504,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":20.61},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":343.845,"actual":401.0193,"gap_pct":16.63},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":384.906,"actual":335.005,"gap_pct":-12.96}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":44.39,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 335k, 15% below the UN 2024 medium variant (395k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":395,"actual_births_k":335.005,"gap_pct":-15.2,"un_lower95_births_k":333.2,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Bureau of National Statistics (ASPR), dynamic tables 'Number of births (by years)' (updated 13.07.2026) and 'Total fertility rate (by years)","source_url":"https://stat.gov.kz/api/iblock/element/40407/file/en/"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 450k (+34% vs 2025), 2100 — 384k (+15% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 176k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":335.005},"values":{"2050":450.1,"2100":383.9},"low_2100":175.9}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=KAZ&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}