{"locations":[{"code":"JPN","name":"Japan","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/japan/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.62 in 1950 → 1.14 in 2025 (−68%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1974, below 1.5 since 1992. The trend broke around 1956: change slowed down (−0.21 → −0.02 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.615,"last":1.14,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1974,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1992,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1956,"slope_before":-0.213,"slope_after":-0.0177}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.46M in 1950 → 709k in 2024 (−71%). The trend broke around 1957 and 1969: −109k → +23.1k → −21.5k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":2462,"last":709.051,"breaks":[{"year":1957,"slope_before":-109,"slope_after":23.1},{"year":1969,"slope_before":23.1,"slope_after":-21.5}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 85.5% in 2024 (+86 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2004. Fastest growth in 1999–2004: 21.4% → 62.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0203,"last":85.5415,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1998,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2004,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":21.4,"end":62.3939}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 63.3% in 1960 → 92.3% in 2025 (+29 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1974. The trend broke around 1974 and 1993: +0.86 → +0.11 → +0.56 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":63.2581,"last":92.3001,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1974,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.864,"slope_after":0.108},{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.108,"slope_after":0.563}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 36,138 PPP dollars in 1990 → 48,283 PPP dollars in 2025 (+34%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":36137.8443,"last":48283.3724}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1950–1960: 3.62 → 1.98. Over the same years: births 2.46M → 1.67M; urban share 63.3% (1960); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":3.615,"end":1.981,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":2462,"end":1672},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1960,"value":63.2581},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.42 → 1.14; births 995k → 709k; internet 91.1% → 85.5%; urban share 91.4% → 92.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 44,589 PPP dollars → 48,283 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.415,"end":1.14,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":994.9,"end":709.051},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":91.058,"end":85.5415},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":91.3533,"end":92.3001},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":44589.3033,"end":48283.3724}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.89); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.95). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":0.892,"r_changes":0.951,"effective_pairs_changes":55,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.55); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.553,"r_changes":0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.814,"r_changes":0.088,"effective_pairs_changes":65,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.66); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.665,"r_changes":0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (47,390 PPP dollars) typically have 1.45; here it is 1.20, lower than in 78% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":47390,"yv":1.2,"expected":1.45,"pct":22,"lower":44,"higher":152,"z":-0.71}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (47,480 PPP dollars) typically have 93.4%; here it is 85.5%, lower than in 78% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":47480,"yv":85.54,"expected":93.4,"pct":21,"lower":38,"higher":138,"z":-0.71}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1952; fertility below 2.1: 1957; urban majority: already in 1960; half the population online: 2004. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1952,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1957,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"internet50":{"year":2004,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −20%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.73,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-29.46},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.528,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-20.13},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.49,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-18.09},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.58,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-22.76},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.345,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-9.26},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.345,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-9.26},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.582,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-22.86},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.536,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-20.55},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.52,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-19.71},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.535,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-20.5},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.367,"actual":1.2204,"gap_pct":-10.72},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.33,"actual":1.14,"gap_pct":-14.29}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-19.92,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.35 (+18% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.47 (+29% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.97.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.14},"values":{"2050":1.349,"2100":1.472},"low_2100":0.972}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −9.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1079.804,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":-14.82},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":985.955,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":-6.71},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":966.33,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":-4.82},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1027.668,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":-10.5},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":881.083,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":4.39},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":873.891,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":5.25},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1025.524,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":-10.31},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1017.043,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":-9.56},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1015.768,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":-9.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1027.895,"actual":919.78,"gap_pct":-10.52},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":815.536,"actual":709.051,"gap_pct":-13.06}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-9.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2015 projection did not expect today's level (709k, 2024) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2015","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":709.051,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 709k, 6% below the UN 2024 medium variant (751k).","data":{"year":2024,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":750.6,"actual_births_k":709.051,"gap_pct":-5.5,"un_lower95_births_k":650.8,"below_lower95":false,"source":"MHLW: births in Japan incl. foreigners","source_url":"https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/tokusyu/gaikoku26/xls/zuhyou_r08.xlsx"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 728k (+3% vs 2024), 2100 — 558k (−21% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 208k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":709.051},"values":{"2050":727.9,"2100":558.2},"low_2100":208.3}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=JPN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}