{"locations":[{"code":"ITA","name":"Italy","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/italy/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.52 in 1950 → 1.14 in 2025 (−55%). Peak: 2.66 in 1964; the latest value is 57% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1976, below 1.5 since 1984. The trend broke around 1969 and 1986: +0.01 → −0.07 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.523,"last":1.14,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.663},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1976,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1984,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.0117,"slope_after":-0.0735},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.0735,"slope_after":-0.000035}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 913k in 1950 → 355k in 2025 (−61%). Peak: 1.01M in 1964; the latest value is 65% lower. The trend broke around 1968 and 1982: +6.87k → −26k → −4.31k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":912.8,"last":355.435,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":1006},"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":6.87,"slope_after":-26},{"year":1982,"slope_before":-26,"slope_after":-4.31}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.2% in 2024 (+89 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2010. Fastest growth in 1996–2001: 1% → 27.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0175,"last":89.2207,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1996,"to":2001,"start":1.02,"end":27.2221}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 59.3% in 1960 → 69.7% in 2025 (+10 pp). The trend broke around 1975 and 1998: +0.46 → +0.02 → +0.12 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":59.2894,"last":69.6809,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.465,"slope_after":0.0188},{"year":1998,"slope_before":0.0188,"slope_after":0.117}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 42,657 PPP dollars in 1990 → 53,606 PPP dollars in 2025 (+26%). The trend broke around 2006 and 2014: +678 → −861 → +640 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":42656.7445,"last":53606.079,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":678,"slope_after":-861},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-861,"slope_after":640}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1974–1984: 2.29 → 1.46. Over the same years: births 865k → 590k; urban share 65.7% → 66.9%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":2.292,"end":1.458,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":865.4,"end":589.7},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1974,"to":1984,"start":65.663,"end":66.8645},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.35 → 1.14; births 480k → 355k; internet 58.1% → 89.2%; urban share 69.6% → 69.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 47,312 PPP dollars → 53,606 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.345,"end":1.14,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":479.6,"end":355.435},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":58.1417,"end":89.2207},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":69.61,"end":69.6809},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":47311.8255,"end":53606.079}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.98). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.977,"r_changes":0.977,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.22); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.31).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.218,"r_changes":0.313,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.84,"r_changes":0.208,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.02); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.022,"r_changes":0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (52,840 PPP dollars) typically have 1.40; here it is 1.21, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":52840,"yv":1.21,"expected":1.4,"pct":29,"lower":57,"higher":139,"z":-0.54}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (53,280 PPP dollars) typically have 95.7%; here it is 89.2%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":53280,"yv":89.22,"expected":95.7,"pct":29,"lower":52,"higher":124,"z":-0.58}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 2.1: 1976; half the population online: 2010. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1976,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2010,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.47,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-17.37},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.346,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-9.76},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.451,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-16.29},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.515,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-19.83},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.485,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-18.21},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.485,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-18.21},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.634,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-25.67},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.614,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-24.75},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.544,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-21.33},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.542,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-21.23},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.296,"actual":1.2146,"gap_pct":-6.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.316,"actual":1.14,"gap_pct":-13.37}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-18.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.35 (+18% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.48 (+30% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.98.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.14},"values":{"2050":1.349,"2100":1.478},"low_2100":0.978}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −10%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 1.48 for 2024; the outcome was 1.18.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.48,"actual":1.18,"gap":-20.27,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.3817,"actual":1.18,"gap":-14.6,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.3447,"actual":1.18,"gap":-12.247,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.2502,"actual":1.18,"gap":-5.614,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.28,"actual":1.18,"gap":-7.813,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.2,"actual":1.18,"gap":-1.667,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-10.03,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":386.976,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":0.18},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":370.087,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":4.75},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":400.54,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":-3.21},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":429.906,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":-9.82},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":458.383,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":-15.43},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":465.743,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":-16.76},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":519.477,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":-25.37},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":531.514,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":-27.06},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":482.462,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":-19.65},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":469.987,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":-17.51},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":423.367,"actual":387.6703,"gap_pct":-8.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":402.724,"actual":355.435,"gap_pct":-11.74}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-13.59,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (355k, 2025) only after 2035: reality is at least 10 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":355.435,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":10,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 355k, 7% below the UN 2024 medium variant (383k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":382.5,"actual_births_k":355.435,"gap_pct":-7.1,"un_lower95_births_k":327,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births, provisional); Istat Indicatori demografici 2025 (TFR estimate, 31 Mar 2026)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=IT"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 342k (−4% vs 2025), 2100 — 249k (−30% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 88.8k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":355.435},"values":{"2050":341.8,"2100":249},"low_2100":88.77}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=ITA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}