{"locations":[{"code":"ISL","name":"Iceland","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/iceland/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.85 in 1950 → 1.54 in 2023 (−60%). Peak: 4.26 in 1960; the latest value is 64% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2011. The trend broke around 1959 and 1977: +0.06 → −0.1 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.854,"last":1.54,"peak":{"year":1960,"value":4.259},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2011,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":0.0557,"slope_after":-0.105},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.105,"slope_after":-0.0131}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 4.1k in 1950 → 4.35k in 2023 (+6%). Peak: 5.07k in 2009; the latest value is 14% lower. The trend broke around 1960 and 1969: +0.09k → −0.06k → 0k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":4.103,"last":4.347,"peak":{"year":2009,"value":5.066},"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":0.0856,"slope_after":-0.0608},{"year":1969,"slope_before":-0.0608,"slope_after":0.00162}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 98.2% in 2024 (+98 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1995, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2007. Fastest growth in 1997–2002: 27.5% → 79.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":98.2092,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1995,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":27.5,"end":79.12}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 80.4% in 1960 → 94.2% in 2025 (+14 pp). The trend broke around 1972 and 1993: +0.45 → +0.25 → +0.1 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":80.3519,"last":94.2179,"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.448,"slope_after":0.255},{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.255,"slope_after":0.0986}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 43,100 PPP dollars in 1990 → 68,065 PPP dollars in 2025 (+58%). Low: 40,561 PPP dollars in 1992; +68% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2006: +200 → +1,604 → +442 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":43099.5786,"last":68064.6855,"trough":{"year":1992,"value":40560.5701},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":200,"slope_after":1600},{"year":2006,"slope_before":1600,"slope_after":442}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1960–1970: 4.26 → 2.82. Over the same years: births 4.87k → 4.06k; urban share 80.4% → 85%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":4.259,"end":2.816,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":4.867,"end":4.062},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":1970,"start":80.3519,"end":85.0412},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.94 → 1.54; births 4.33k → 4.35k; internet 96.5% → 97.9%; urban share 93.6% → 94.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 59,730 PPP dollars → 69,268 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.938,"end":1.54,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.326,"end":4.347},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":96.5468,"end":97.9486},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":93.6167,"end":94.1518},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":59729.544,"end":69268.1221}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.33); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.90). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.331,"r_changes":0.9,"effective_pairs_changes":61,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.62); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.618,"r_changes":0.002,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.941,"r_changes":0.043,"effective_pairs_changes":58,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.71); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.18). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year. Changes line up best when shifted by 2 years: \"GDP per person (PPP)\" moves first, then \"Fertility (TFR)\" (r = 0.60).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.709,"r_changes":-0.182,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":{"years":-2,"r":0.603,"leader":"gdp_per_capita_ppp"}}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (69,270 PPP dollars) typically have 1.27; here it is 1.54, higher than in 77% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":69270,"yv":1.54,"expected":1.27,"pct":77,"lower":151,"higher":45,"z":0.72}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (68,230 PPP dollars) typically have 100%; here it is 98.2%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":68230,"yv":98.21,"expected":100,"pct":46,"lower":81,"higher":95,"z":-0.2}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 3: 1969; fertility below 2.1: 1984; half the population online: 2002. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr3":{"year":1969,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1984,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2002,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −9.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.925,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-9.9},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.879,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-7.7},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-6.25},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-6.25},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.87,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-7.25},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.978,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-12.32},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.099,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-17.37},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.037,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-14.86},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.901,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-8.76},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.921,"actual":1.7344,"gap_pct":-9.71},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.72,"actual":1.54,"gap_pct":-10.47}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-9.71,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.51 (−2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.56 (+1% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.06.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.54},"values":{"2050":1.507,"2100":1.559},"low_2100":1.059}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 3 of 5 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −8.9%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 2.05 for 2024; the outcome was 1.56.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":2.05,"actual":1.56,"gap":-23.902,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.791,"actual":1.56,"gap":-12.898,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.7128,"actual":1.56,"gap":-8.92,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.56,"actual":1.56,"gap":0,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.56,"actual":1.56,"gap":0,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-8.92,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −3.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.051,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":3.17},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.929,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":6.37},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.92,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":6.61},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.105,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":1.81},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.009,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":4.25},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.779,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":-12.55},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.007,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":-16.53},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.804,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":-13},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.334,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":-3.57},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.418,"actual":4.1793,"gap_pct":-5.4},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.553,"actual":4.347,"gap_pct":-4.52}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-3.57,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection expected today's level (4.35k, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.347,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.73k (−14% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.67k (−39% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.97k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.347},"values":{"2050":3.734,"2100":2.673},"low_2100":0.968}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=ISL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}