{"locations":[{"code":"IRL","name":"Ireland","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/ireland/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.50 in 1950 → 1.50 in 2025 (−57%). Peak: 4.08 in 1964; the latest value is 63% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1991. The trend broke around 1970 and 1990: +0.03 → −0.1 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.497,"last":1.5,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":4.079},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1991,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.0287,"slope_after":-0.0966},{"year":1990,"slope_before":-0.0966,"slope_after":-0.011}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 66.9k in 1950 → 54.3k in 2025 (−19%). Peak: 76k in 2009; the latest value is 29% lower. The trend broke around 2001 and 2009: −0.25k → +2.5k → −1.5k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":66.94,"last":54.293,"peak":{"year":2009,"value":76.01},"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.253,"slope_after":2.5},{"year":2009,"slope_before":2.5,"slope_after":-1.5}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 97.2% in 2024 (+97 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2006, above 90% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2002–2007: 25.9% → 61.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":97.1877,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2002,"to":2007,"start":25.85,"end":61.1583}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 44.9% in 1960 → 64.6% in 2025 (+20 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1967. The trend broke around 1969 and 1975: +0.74 → +0.44 → +0.21 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":44.8696,"last":64.5876,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1967,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.743,"slope_after":0.437},{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.437,"slope_after":0.212}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 29,505 PPP dollars in 1990 → 131,338 PPP dollars in 2025 (×4.5). The trend broke around 2006 and 2012: +2,512 → −1,352 → +5,716 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":29504.8773,"last":131338.4447,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":2510,"slope_after":-1350},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-1350,"slope_after":5720}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1979–1989: 3.21 → 2.08. Over the same years: births 72.5k → 52.5k; internet 0% (1990); urban share 55.2% → 56.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 29,505 PPP dollars (1990).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":3.214,"end":2.081,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":72.53,"end":52.46},{"id":"internet_users","year":1990,"value":0},{"id":"urban_population","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":55.1962,"end":56.7818},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1990,"value":29504.8773}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.86 → 1.50; births 65.6k → 54.3k; internet 83.5% → 97.2%; urban share 62.6% → 64.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 80,816 PPP dollars → 131,338 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.861,"end":1.5,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":65.61,"end":54.293},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":83.4948,"end":97.1877},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":62.6392,"end":64.5876},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":80815.6415,"end":131338.4447}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.39); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.71). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.386,"r_changes":0.715,"effective_pairs_changes":38,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.52); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.38).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.518,"r_changes":0.377,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.43).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.917,"r_changes":0.431,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.835,"r_changes":0.03,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (117,700 PPP dollars) typically have 1.06; here it is 1.50, higher than in 89% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":117700,"yv":1.5,"expected":1.06,"pct":89,"lower":175,"higher":21,"z":1.31}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (118,800 PPP dollars) typically have 111%; here it is 97.2%, lower than in 90% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":118800,"yv":97.19,"expected":111,"pct":10,"lower":18,"higher":158,"z":-1.25}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1967; fertility below 3: 1982; fertility below 2.1: 1989; half the population online: 2006. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1967,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1982,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1989,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2006,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −18%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-25.94},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.078,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-25.15},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-15.93},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-15.93},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-15.93},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-15.93},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.098,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-25.87},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.987,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-21.73},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.986,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-21.69},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.966,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-20.89},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.786,"actual":1.5553,"gap_pct":-12.92},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.754,"actual":1.5,"gap_pct":-14.48}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-18.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.60 (+7% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.61 (+7% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.11.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.5},"values":{"2050":1.6,"2100":1.607},"low_2100":1.107}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −13%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 2.00 for 2024; the outcome was 1.47.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":2,"actual":1.47,"gap":-26.5,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.9591,"actual":1.47,"gap":-24.966,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.803,"actual":1.47,"gap":-18.47,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.602,"actual":1.47,"gap":-8.238,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.51,"actual":1.47,"gap":-2.649,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.52,"actual":1.47,"gap":-3.289,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-13.354,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −6.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":55.799,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-0.95},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.818,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-7.61},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":53.872,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":2.59},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":55.496,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-0.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.442,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-10.05},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.386,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-9.97},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":66.242,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-16.57},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":64.327,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-14.09},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.559,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-5.62},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.211,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-6.66},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":56.954,"actual":55.2663,"gap_pct":-2.96},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":55.423,"actual":54.293,"gap_pct":-2.04}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-6.14,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 54.3k, 3% above the UN 2024 medium variant (52.6k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":52.62,"actual_births_k":54.293,"gap_pct":3.2,"un_lower95_births_k":45.69,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births); CSO Vital Statistics Yearly Summary 2025 (TFR, published 2 Jun 2026)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=IE"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 58.3k (+7% vs 2025), 2100 — 43.4k (−20% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 17k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":54.293},"values":{"2050":58.34,"2100":43.36},"low_2100":16.96}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=IRL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}