{"locations":[{"code":"IND","name":"India","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/india/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.73 in 1950 → 1.9 in 2024 (−67%). Peak: 5.98 in 1964; the latest value is 68% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2020. The trend broke around 1964: direction reversed (+0.02 → −0.07 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":5.732,"last":1.9,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":5.979},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.0165,"slope_after":-0.075}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 15.3M in 1950 → 23.2M in 2023 (+52%). Peak: 29.3M in 2001; the latest value is 21% lower. The trend broke around 1988 and 2002: +335k → +72.2k → −293k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":15288,"last":23219,"peak":{"year":2001,"value":29325},"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":335,"slope_after":72.2},{"year":2002,"slope_before":72.2,"slope_after":-293}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 70% in 2025 (+70 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2011, above 50% since 2022. Fastest growth in 2018–2023: 20.1% → 60.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":70,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2022,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2018,"to":2023,"start":20.0813,"end":60.2523}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 17.9% in 1960 → 35.7% in 2025 (+18 pp).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":17.925,"last":35.6892}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 2,140 PPP dollars in 1990 → 10,039 PPP dollars in 2025 (×4.7). The trend broke around 2002: change sped up (+94 → +211 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":2139.8275,"last":10039.0709,"breaks":[{"year":2002,"slope_before":94.2,"slope_after":211}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1969–1979: 5.68 → 4.81. Over the same years: births 21.4M → 24.8M; urban share 19.5% → 23.2%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":5.684,"end":4.808,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":21386,"end":24834},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1969,"to":1979,"start":19.4733,"end":23.1692},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 2.29 → 1.9; births 25.1M → 23.2M; internet 13.5% → 64.9%; urban share 32.2% → 35.4%; GDP per person (PPP) 5,905 PPP dollars → 9,416 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":2.293,"end":1.9,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2023,"start":25051,"end":23219},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":13.5,"end":64.9435},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":32.2288,"end":35.3789},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":5905.1062,"end":9416.0514}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.67); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.16).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.675,"r_changes":0.156,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.78); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.12). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.783,"r_changes":-0.122,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.38). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.994,"r_changes":-0.381,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.955,"r_changes":0.229,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (8,871 PPP dollars) typically have 2.58; here it is 1.9, lower than in 89% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":8871,"yv":1.9,"expected":2.58,"pct":11,"lower":22,"higher":174,"z":-1.15}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (9,416 PPP dollars) typically have 62.1%; here it is 64.9%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":9416,"yv":64.94,"expected":62.1,"pct":58,"lower":102,"higher":74,"z":0.25}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 2005; fertility below 2.1: 2020; half the population online: 2022. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":2005,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2020,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2022,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −4.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":4.28},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":4.28},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.279,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":-3.91},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.288,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":-4.29},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.322,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":-5.69},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.302,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":-4.87},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.384,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":-8.15},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.365,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":-7.41},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.343,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":-6.54},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.303,"actual":2.1898,"gap_pct":-4.92},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.982,"actual":1.9,"gap_pct":-4.14}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-4.87,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected today's level (1.9, 2024) only after 2035: reality is at least 11 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":11,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (1.9, 2024) only after 2030: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":1.9,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.76 (−7% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.69 (−11% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.19.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.9},"values":{"2050":1.764,"2100":1.693},"low_2100":1.193}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −2.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":21858.171,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":12.3},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":21801.97,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":12.59},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":24095.054,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":1.88},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":24477.512,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":0.28},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":25597.551,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":-4.1},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":25375.209,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":-3.26},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":26393.178,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":-6.99},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":25061.24,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":-2.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":25770.913,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":-4.75},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":25224.048,"actual":24547,"gap_pct":-2.68},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":23056.737,"actual":23219,"gap_pct":0.7}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-2.05,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (23.2M) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":23219,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"year_expected_by":null,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (23.2M, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":23219,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 19M (−18% vs 2023), 2100 — 13.2M (−43% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 4.67M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":23219},"values":{"2050":18962,"2100":13155},"low_2100":4666}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1962–1965 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 3,710 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Azerbaijan, South Korea, Central African Republic, Mauritius, Panama and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +2.1%, 1–5 years after it +7.7%, 6–10 years after +15%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.03, 1–5 years after it +0.10, 6–10 years after +0.24.","data":{"episode":"IND-1962","kind":"modern","from":1962,"to":1965,"battle_deaths":3710,"peers":["AZE","KOR","CAF","MUS","PAN","BRA","PNG","LSO","COG","TJK"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":2.06,"own":-0.07,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":7.7,"own":-2.23,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":15.49,"own":-3.4,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.034,"own":0.005,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":0.095,"own":-0.237,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.243,"own":-0.639,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":1.01,"own":-0.05,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":3.24,"own":-0.62,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":5.28,"own":-0.74,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1971–1971 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 5,694 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Nepal, Kosovo, Lesotho, Paraguay, Kyrgyzstan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +1%, 1–5 years after it +1%, 6–10 years after −0.7%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.01, 1–5 years after it −0.09, 6–10 years after −0.40.","data":{"episode":"IND-1971","kind":"modern","from":1971,"to":1971,"battle_deaths":5694,"peers":["NPL","XKX","LSO","PRY","KGZ","GUY","JAM","HTI","VEN","CAF"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":0.95,"own":0.44,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":1.02,"own":0.87,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.66,"own":0.95,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.011,"own":-0.081,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.089,"own":-0.226,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.4,"own":-0.507,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.34,"own":0.25,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.06,"own":0.42,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.83,"own":0.35,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1988–1992 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 12 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Kyrgyzstan, Tunisia, Mongolia, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +4.3%, 1–5 years after it +12%, 6–10 years after +22%; fertility (children per woman) during the war 0.00, 1–5 years after it +0.06, 6–10 years after −0.01.","data":{"episode":"IND-1988","kind":"modern","from":1988,"to":1992,"battle_deaths":12275,"peers":["KGZ","TUN","MNG","TKM","ARE","MYS","BOL","DOM","BWA","FJI"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":4.27,"own":-4.5,"years":5},"p1_5":{"gap":12.33,"own":-10.46,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":22.4,"own":-15.71,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.002,"own":-0.083,"years":5},"p1_5":{"gap":0.063,"own":-0.162,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.008,"own":-0.161,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.7,"own":-1.34,"years":5},"p1_5":{"gap":0.45,"own":-2.78,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.1,"own":-3.64,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2000–2005 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 11 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Bhutan, Qatar, Botswana, Turkmenistan, Nicaragua and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −3.9%, 1–5 years after it −18%, 6–10 years after −27%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.11, 1–5 years after it −0.34, 6–10 years after −0.67.","data":{"episode":"IND-2000","kind":"modern","from":2000,"to":2005,"battle_deaths":11246,"peers":["BTN","QAT","BWA","TKM","NIC","SLV","KWT","BHR","GUY","PRY"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-3.94,"own":-0.74,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":-18.33,"own":-7.34,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-27.04,"own":-13.09,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.106,"own":0.054,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.337,"own":0.016,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.671,"own":0.054,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.47,"own":0.33,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":-2.54,"own":-0.2,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-5.46,"own":-0.09,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=IND&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}