{"locations":[{"code":"IDN","name":"Indonesia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/indonesia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.11 in 1950 → 2.13 in 2023 (−58%). Peak: 5.59 in 1965; the latest value is 62% lower. The trend broke around 1969 and 1994: +0.03 → −0.12 → −0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.109,"last":2.127,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":5.593},"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":0.0265,"slope_after":-0.119},{"year":1994,"slope_before":-0.119,"slope_after":-0.0196}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 2.78M in 1950 → 4.48M in 2023 (+61%). Peak: 5.16M in 2012; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1970 and 2014: +97.3k → +1.93k → −51.5k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2783,"last":4482,"peak":{"year":2012,"value":5158},"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":97.3,"slope_after":1.93},{"year":2014,"slope_before":1.93,"slope_after":-51.5}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 72.8% in 2024 (+73 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2010, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2016–2021: 25.4% → 62.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":72.7808,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2010,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2016,"to":2021,"start":25.4474,"end":62.1045}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 14.6% in 1960 → 59.4% in 2025 (+45 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2011. The trend broke around 1980: change sped up (+0.35 → +1 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":14.6077,"last":59.3929,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.353,"slope_after":1.03}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 4,873 PPP dollars in 1990 → 15,091 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.1). The trend broke around 1996 and 2002: +286 → −92 → +378 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":4873.0538,"last":15091.0089,"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":286,"slope_after":-92.2},{"year":2002,"slope_before":-92.2,"slope_after":378}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1976–1986: 4.92 → 3.53. Over the same years: births 4.84M → 4.79M; urban share 19.5% → 26.9%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":4.921,"end":3.53,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":4844,"end":4791},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":19.5063,"end":26.8625},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.44 → 2.13; births 5.03M → 4.48M; internet 14.9% → 69.2%; urban share 51.8% → 58.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 10,122 PPP dollars → 13,890 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.441,"end":2.127,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":5026,"end":4482},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":14.94,"end":69.2084},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":51.8307,"end":58.1179},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":10121.8142,"end":13889.9495}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.54); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.76). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.535,"r_changes":0.763,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.76); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.19). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.765,"r_changes":-0.185,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.47). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.943,"r_changes":-0.468,"effective_pairs_changes":9,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.23). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.833,"r_changes":0.235,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (13,890 PPP dollars) typically have 2.21; here it is 2.13, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":13890,"yv":2.127,"expected":2.21,"pct":45,"lower":89,"higher":107,"z":-0.15}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (14,470 PPP dollars) typically have 70.5%; here it is 72.8%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":14470,"yv":72.78,"expected":70.5,"pct":56,"lower":99,"higher":77,"z":0.21}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1992; urban majority: 2011; half the population online: 2020. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1992,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":2011,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2020,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +7.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":7.2},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":7.2},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.012,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":11.88},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.887,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":19.3},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.878,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":19.87},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.88,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":19.74},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.942,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":15.92},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.22,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":1.4},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.357,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":-4.49},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.32,"actual":2.2511,"gap_pct":-2.97},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.134,"actual":2.127,"gap_pct":-0.33}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":7.2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (2.13) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.127,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"year_expected_by":null,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.13, 2023) only by 2024: reality is at least 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.127,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"year_expected_by":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.85 (−13% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.73 (−19% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.23.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.127},"values":{"2050":1.848,"2100":1.731},"low_2100":1.231}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +8.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4321.454,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":8.52},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4337.311,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":8.12},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4160.07,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":12.73},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3805.858,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":23.22},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3857.205,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":21.58},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3746.155,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":25.18},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4047.91,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":15.85},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4537.928,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":3.34},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4907.692,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":-4.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4882.397,"actual":4689.5,"gap_pct":-3.95},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4434.122,"actual":4482,"gap_pct":1.08}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":8.52,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (4.48M) already around 2004: reality is 19 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4482,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2004,"year_expected_by":null,"years":19,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 3.93M (−12% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.83M (−37% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.06M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4482},"values":{"2050":3933,"2100":2826},"low_2100":1064}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1958–1961 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 33 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Azerbaijan, Trinidad and Tobago, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Tajikistan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −2.8%, 1–5 years after it −2.6%, 6–10 years after +7%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.18, 1–5 years after it −0.08, 6–10 years after +0.60.","data":{"episode":"IDN-1958","kind":"modern","from":1958,"to":1961,"battle_deaths":33444,"peers":["AZE","TTO","KGZ","ARM","TJK","UZB","PAN","LSO","HKG","MUS"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-2.78,"own":-2.37,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":-2.63,"own":-8.05,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":6.96,"own":-17.93,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.181,"own":-0.065,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.079,"own":-0.191,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.596,"own":-0.47,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.28,"own":-1.43,"years":4},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.55,"own":-4.68,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.7,"own":-9.96,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1976–1981 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 8,500 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Kyrgyzstan, Dominican Republic, Kosovo, Gabon, Ecuador and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −0.5%, 1–5 years after it −5.1%, 6–10 years after −9.7%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.12, 1–5 years after it −0.51, 6–10 years after −0.91.","data":{"episode":"IDN-1976","kind":"modern","from":1976,"to":1981,"battle_deaths":8500,"peers":["KGZ","DOM","XKX","GAB","ECU","NPL","ALB","GUY","JAM","BRA"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-0.48,"own":-0.46,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":-5.08,"own":-4.61,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-9.71,"own":-12.15,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.124,"own":-0.201,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.507,"own":-0.579,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.906,"own":-0.923,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.42,"own":0.53,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.89,"own":0.54,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.85,"own":0.17,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=IDN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}