{"locations":[{"code":"HUN","name":"Hungary","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/hungary/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.62 in 1950 → 1.31 in 2025 (−50%). Peak: 2.96 in 1954; the latest value is 56% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1978, below 1.5 since 2024. The trend broke around 1960 and 2009: −0.06 → −0.02 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.615,"last":1.31,"peak":{"year":1954,"value":2.964},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1978,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2024,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":-0.0632,"slope_after":-0.0172},{"year":2009,"slope_before":-0.0172,"slope_after":0.0136}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 196k in 1950 → 73.3k in 2025 (−63%). Peak: 223k in 1954; the latest value is 67% lower. The trend broke around 1963 and 1973: −6.39k → +2.6k → −1.7k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":196.3,"last":73.264,"peak":{"year":1954,"value":222.7},"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":-6.39,"slope_after":2.6},{"year":1973,"slope_before":2.6,"slope_after":-1.7}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 93.8% in 2024 (+94 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2007, above 90% since 2023. Fastest growth in 2003–2008: 21.6% → 61%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":93.779,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2007,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2023,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2003,"to":2008,"start":21.63,"end":61}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 53.4% in 1960 → 70.7% in 2025 (+17 pp). The trend broke around 1998 and 2013: +0.27 → +0.48 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":53.436,"last":70.6937,"breaks":[{"year":1998,"slope_before":0.273,"slope_after":0.476},{"year":2013,"slope_before":0.476,"slope_after":0.0188}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 21,297 PPP dollars in 1990 → 41,161 PPP dollars in 2025 (+93%). Low: 18,113 PPP dollars in 1993; +127% since then. The trend broke around 2014: change sped up (+558 → +1,056 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":21297.0006,"last":41160.6419,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":18113.3369},"breaks":[{"year":2014,"slope_before":558,"slope_after":1060}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1954–1964: 2.96 → 1.82. Over the same years: births 223k → 132k; urban share 54.1% (1964); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1954,"to":1964,"start":2.964,"end":1.815,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1954,"to":1964,"start":222.7,"end":131.6},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1964,"value":54.0725},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.45 → 1.31; births 92k → 73.3k; internet 72.8% → 93.8%; urban share 70.5% → 70.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 31,486 PPP dollars → 41,161 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.446,"end":1.31,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":91.98,"end":73.264},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":72.8347,"end":93.779},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":70.4848,"end":70.6937},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":31485.5675,"end":41160.6419}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.97); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.97). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.967,"r_changes":0.97,"effective_pairs_changes":43,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.16); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.36).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.158,"r_changes":0.357,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.80); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.805,"r_changes":-0.026,"effective_pairs_changes":54,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.12); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.119,"r_changes":0.083,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (40,330 PPP dollars) typically have 1.53; here it is 1.55, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":40330,"yv":1.55,"expected":1.53,"pct":53,"lower":104,"higher":92,"z":0.04}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (40,750 PPP dollars) typically have 90.5%; here it is 93.8%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":40750,"yv":93.78,"expected":90.5,"pct":59,"lower":105,"higher":71,"z":0.29}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; fertility below 2.1: 1959; urban majority: already in 1960; half the population online: 2007. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1959,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"internet50":{"year":2007,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap −0.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.522,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":-0.69},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.475,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":2.47},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.51,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":0.1},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.455,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":3.88},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.455,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":3.88},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.518,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":-0.43},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.589,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":-4.88},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.527,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":-1.02},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.458,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":3.67},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.45,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":4.24},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.54,"actual":1.5115,"gap_pct":-1.85},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.587,"actual":1.31,"gap_pct":-17.45}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":-0.16,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (1.31) already around 2014: reality is 11 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.31,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"year_expected_by":null,"years":11,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (1.31) already around 2011: reality is 14 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.31,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2011,"year_expected_by":null,"years":14,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.55 (+18% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.59 (+22% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.09.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.31},"values":{"2050":1.552,"2100":1.592},"low_2100":1.092}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −9.3%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2015 expected 1.64 for 2024; the outcome was 1.41.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.55,"actual":1.41,"gap":-9.032,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.6425,"actual":1.41,"gap":-14.155,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.5583,"actual":1.41,"gap":-9.517,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.6357,"actual":1.41,"gap":-13.8,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.55,"actual":1.41,"gap":-9.032,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.55,"actual":1.41,"gap":-9.032,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-9.274,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +0.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":77.578,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":11.68},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.029,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":13.95},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.648,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":10.16},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":81.32,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":6.54},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":84.381,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":2.68},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":91.164,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":-4.96},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":97.699,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":-11.32},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":92.727,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":-6.57},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":87.427,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":-0.9},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":84.907,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":2.04},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":88.965,"actual":86.6382,"gap_pct":-2.62},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":96.962,"actual":73.264,"gap_pct":-24.44}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":0.57,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (73.3k, 2025) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":73.264,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":5,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (73.3k, 2025) only after 2050: reality is at least 26 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":73.264,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2051,"year_expected_by":2100,"years":26,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 73.3k, 13% below the UN 2024 medium variant (84.3k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":84.3,"actual_births_k":73.264,"gap_pct":-13.1,"un_lower95_births_k":73.47,"below_lower95":true,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births); KSH (TFR, preliminary)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=HU"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 78.1k (+7% vs 2025), 2100 — 63.7k (−13% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 25.5k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":73.264},"values":{"2050":78.07,"2100":63.71},"low_2100":25.45}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1956–1956 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 3,171 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Norway, Finland, Belarus, Romania, Denmark and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −13%, 1–5 years after it −35%, 6–10 years after −49%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.39, 1–5 years after it −1.04, 6–10 years after −1.72.","data":{"episode":"HUN-1956","kind":"modern","from":1956,"to":1956,"battle_deaths":3171,"peers":["NOR","FIN","BLR","ROU","DNK","SVN","HRV","CZE","LTU","GEO"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-13.06,"own":-12.07,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-34.86,"own":-36.38,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-48.75,"own":-51.3,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.387,"own":-0.342,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.037,"own":-1.065,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-1.724,"own":-1.7,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-2.81,"own":-2.6,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-7.8,"own":-8.02,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-11.14,"own":-11.96,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=HUN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}