{"locations":[{"code":"HRV","name":"Croatia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/croatia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.93 in 1950 → 1.47 in 2023 (−50%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1968, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 1959 and 2001: −0.07 → −0.02 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.933,"last":1.468,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1968,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1959,"slope_before":-0.0673,"slope_after":-0.019},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.019,"slope_after":0.0019}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 97.1k in 1950 → 31.5k in 2023 (−68%). The trend broke around 1969 and 1975: −1.7k → +0.89k → −0.86k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":97.11,"last":31.45,"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":-1.7,"slope_after":0.892},{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.892,"slope_after":-0.861}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 83.6% in 2024 (+84 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2009. Fastest growth in 1999–2004: 4.4% → 30.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":83.6324,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2009,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":4.41,"end":30.91}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 30.1% in 1960 → 57.8% in 2025 (+28 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1984. The trend broke around 1990: change slowed down (+0.7 → +0.07 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":30.1288,"last":57.8145,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1984,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":0.702,"slope_after":0.0658}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 23,400 PPP dollars in 1990 → 44,172 PPP dollars in 2025 (+89%). Low: 15,570 PPP dollars in 1993; ×2.8 since then. The trend broke around 2008 and 2015: +735 → −65 → +1,517 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":23399.6397,"last":44172.0442,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":15570.3388},"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":735,"slope_after":-65.3},{"year":2015,"slope_before":-65.3,"slope_after":1520}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1950–1960: 2.93 → 2.24. Over the same years: births 97.1k → 78.9k; urban share 30.1% (1960); no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":2.933,"end":2.239,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1950,"to":1960,"start":97.11,"end":78.92},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","year":1960,"value":30.1288},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.46 → 1.47; births 39.7k → 31.5k; internet 66.7% → 83.2%; urban share 55.4% → 57.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 28,398 PPP dollars → 41,320 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.46,"end":1.468,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":39.66,"end":31.45},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":66.7476,"end":83.2412},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":55.3659,"end":57.2432},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":28397.9821,"end":41320.258}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.959,"r_changes":0.936,"effective_pairs_changes":56,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.26); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.257,"r_changes":0.082,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.939,"r_changes":-0.094,"effective_pairs_changes":47,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.17); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.28).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.171,"r_changes":0.275,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (41,320 PPP dollars) typically have 1.52; here it is 1.47, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":41320,"yv":1.468,"expected":1.52,"pct":46,"lower":90,"higher":106,"z":-0.13}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (42,830 PPP dollars) typically have 91.5%; here it is 83.6%, lower than in 77% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":42830,"yv":83.63,"expected":91.5,"pct":23,"lower":41,"higher":135,"z":-0.7}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; fertility below 2.1: 1968; urban majority: 1984; half the population online: 2009. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1968,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1984,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2009,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −6.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.69,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":-14.37},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.743,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":-16.98},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.71,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":-15.37},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.486,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":-2.62},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.486,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":-2.62},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.541,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":-6.09},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.574,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":-8.06},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.547,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":-6.46},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.477,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":-2.02},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.446,"actual":1.4471,"gap_pct":0.08},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.448,"actual":1.468,"gap_pct":1.38}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-6.09,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (1.47) already around 2016: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.468,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"year_expected_by":null,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (1.47, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.468,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.52 (+3% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.56 (+6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.06.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.468},"values":{"2050":1.516,"2100":1.557},"low_2100":1.057}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 4 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in 1; median gap −1.9%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 1.57 for 2024; the outcome was 1.46.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.57,"actual":1.46,"gap":-7.006,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.4856,"actual":1.46,"gap":-1.724,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.4553,"actual":1.46,"gap":0.324,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.4912,"actual":1.46,"gap":-2.094,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.5,"actual":1.46,"gap":-2.667,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.46,"actual":1.46,"gap":0,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap":-1.909,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −13%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":43.524,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-18.93},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":49.264,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-28.38},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":43.779,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-19.4},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":40.501,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-12.88},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":40.682,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-13.27},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":41.666,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-15.31},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":42.629,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-17.23},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":39.488,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-10.64},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":38.554,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-8.48},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":37.63,"actual":35.285,"gap_pct":-6.23},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":33.537,"actual":31.45,"gap_pct":-6.22}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-13.27,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (31.5k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":31.45,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (31.5k, 2023) only by 2029: reality is at least 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":31.45,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"year_expected_by":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 25.2k (−20% vs 2023), 2100 — 15.5k (−51% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 5k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":31.45},"values":{"2050":25.16,"2100":15.53},"low_2100":5.004}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1991–1991 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 2,933 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Belgium, Netherlands, Serbia, Denmark, Switzerland and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −7.3%, 1–5 years after it −3%, 6–10 years after +0.2%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.12, 1–5 years after it 0.00, 6–10 years after +0.13.","data":{"episode":"HRV-1991","kind":"modern","from":1991,"to":1991,"battle_deaths":2933,"peers":["BEL","NLD","SRB","DNK","CHE","PRT","FIN","FRA","AUT","GRC"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-7.25,"own":-3.98,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-3,"own":-2.4,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.18,"own":-4.77,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.123,"own":-0.054,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.004,"own":0.059,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.133,"own":0.189,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.67,"own":-0.28,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.39,"own":0.58,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":2.24,"own":1.61,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1995–1995 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Serbia, Switzerland, Belarus, Belgium, Austria and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +14%, 1–5 years after it +17%, 6–10 years after +17%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.24, 1–5 years after it +0.30, 6–10 years after +0.29.","data":{"episode":"HRV-1995","kind":"modern","from":1995,"to":1995,"battle_deaths":826,"peers":["SRB","CHE","BLR","BEL","AUT","NLD","UKR","LTU","PRT","CZE"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":13.92,"own":7.15,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":17.14,"own":7.85,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":17.44,"own":11.17,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.235,"own":0.161,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.295,"own":0.245,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.29,"own":0.344,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":1.87,"own":1.14,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":2.36,"own":1.74,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":2.4,"own":2.58,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=HRV&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}