{"locations":[{"code":"HKG","name":"Hong Kong","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/hong-kong/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 4.26 in 1950 → 0.73 in 2025 (−83%). Peak: 5.18 in 1962; the latest value is 86% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1980, below 1.5 since 1986, below 1.0 since 2020. The trend broke around 1962 and 1983: +0.07 → −0.18 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":4.255,"last":0.733,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":5.177},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1980,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1986,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1,"year":2020,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.075,"slope_after":-0.178},{"year":1983,"slope_before":-0.178,"slope_after":-0.0131}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 78.8k in 1950 → 41.3k in 2023 (−48%). Peak: 153k in 1965; the latest value is 73% lower.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":78.77,"last":41.29,"peak":{"year":1965,"value":153.4}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 95.8% in 2024 (+96 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2003, above 90% since 2018. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 14.5% → 52.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":95.7554,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2018,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":14.5,"end":52.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 85.2% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (+15 pp). The trend broke around 1985 and 1991: +0.33 → +1.2 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":85.2,"last":100,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.331,"slope_after":1.19},{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.19,"slope_after":0.00113}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 31,599 PPP dollars in 1990 → 68,725 PPP dollars in 2025 (+117%). The trend broke around 2001 and 2013: +575 → +1,847 → +385 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":31598.7265,"last":68724.5566,"breaks":[{"year":2001,"slope_before":575,"slope_after":1850},{"year":2013,"slope_before":1850,"slope_after":385}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 4.92 → 2.63. Over the same years: births 153k → 80.2k; urban share 85.9% → 89.5%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":4.923,"end":2.627,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":153.4,"end":80.16},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":85.9387,"end":89.5174},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.23 → 0.73; births 79.8k (2015); internet 84.9% → 95.8%; urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 62,780 PPP dollars → 68,725 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.227,"end":0.733,"others":[{"id":"births","year":2015,"value":79.75},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":84.9484,"end":95.7554},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":62779.7552,"end":68724.5566}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.66); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.26).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.66,"r_changes":0.26,"effective_pairs_changes":70,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.55); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.548,"r_changes":-0.213,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.924,"r_changes":0.011,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.42); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.42).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.423,"r_changes":0.421,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (64,390 PPP dollars) typically have 1.30; here it is 0.75, lower than in 98% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":64390,"yv":0.751,"expected":1.3,"pct":2,"lower":4,"higher":192,"z":-2.08}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (66,190 PPP dollars) typically have 99.9%; here it is 95.8%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":66190,"yv":95.76,"expected":99.9,"pct":37,"lower":65,"higher":111,"z":-0.37}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 3: 1974; fertility below 2.1: 1980; half the population online: 2003. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr3":{"year":1974,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1980,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2003,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −44%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.6,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-51.37},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.556,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-49.99},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.47,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-47.07},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.17,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-33.5},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.091,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-28.68},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.109,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-29.84},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.381,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-43.66},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.29,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-39.68},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.377,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-43.49},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.422,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-45.28},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.413,"actual":0.7781,"gap_pct":-44.93},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":0.794,"actual":0.733,"gap_pct":-7.68}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-43.58,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 0.96 (+31% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.20 (+63% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 0.70.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":0.733},"values":{"2050":0.961,"2100":1.197},"low_2100":0.697}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +2.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":71.075,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":0.42},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":75.531,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":-5.5},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":69.697,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":2.41},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":58.588,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":21.83},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":54.76,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":30.35},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":55.252,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":29.18},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":69.367,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":2.9},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":67.272,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":6.1},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":72.707,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":-1.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":81.986,"actual":71.377,"gap_pct":-12.94},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":41.409,"actual":41.29,"gap_pct":-0.29}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":2.41,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (41.3k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":41.29,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (41.3k, 2023) only by 2024: reality is at least 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":41.29,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"year_expected_by":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 20.8k (−50% vs 2023), 2100 — 5.67k (−86% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 0.61k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":41.29},"values":{"2050":20.81,"2100":5.667},"low_2100":0.612}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=HKG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}