{"locations":[{"code":"GRC","name":"Greece","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/greece/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.57 in 1950 → 1.24 in 2024 (−52%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1982, below 1.5 since 2010. The trend broke around 1979 and 1989: 0 → −0.1 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":2.574,"last":1.24,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1982,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2010,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.000607,"slope_after":-0.0954},{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.0954,"slope_after":-0.0025}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 156k in 1950 → 65.4k in 2025 (−58%). Peak: 177k in 1967; the latest value is 63% lower. The trend broke around 1980 and 1986: −0.39k → −5.23k → −0.97k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":155.7,"last":65.439,"peak":{"year":1967,"value":176.6},"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":-0.389,"slope_after":-5.23},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-5.23,"slope_after":-0.965}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 86.3% in 2024 (+86 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2010–2015: 44.4% → 66.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":86.2697,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2010,"to":2015,"start":44.4,"end":66.835}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 55.8% in 1960 → 79.2% in 2025 (+23 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 2007. The trend broke around 1976: change slowed down (+0.81 → +0.18 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":55.8446,"last":79.2246,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1976,"slope_before":0.811,"slope_after":0.184}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 26,916 PPP dollars in 1990 → 38,219 PPP dollars in 2025 (+42%). The trend broke around 2008 and 2014: +918 → −1,842 → +731 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":26916.3125,"last":38218.7216,"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":918,"slope_after":-1840},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-1840,"slope_after":731}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1979–1989: 2.36 → 1.49. Over the same years: births 153k → 109k; internet 0% (1990); urban share 69.1% → 71.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 26,916 PPP dollars (1990).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":2.356,"end":1.485,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":153.2,"end":109},{"id":"internet_users","year":1990,"value":0},{"id":"urban_population","from":1979,"to":1989,"start":69.132,"end":71.3458},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1990,"value":26916.3125}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 1.30 → 1.24; births 92.4k → 68.3k; internet 63.2% → 86.3%; urban share 77.3% → 79%; GDP per person (PPP) 31,213 PPP dollars → 37,474 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1.298,"end":1.24,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":92.39,"end":68.309},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":63.2073,"end":86.2697},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":77.313,"end":78.9968},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":31213.3765,"end":37474.2798}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.94); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.40).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":0.939,"r_changes":0.396,"effective_pairs_changes":74,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.34); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.339,"r_changes":-0.082,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.53). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.83,"r_changes":0.528,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.03); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.17).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.031,"r_changes":0.174,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (36,700 PPP dollars) typically have 1.58; here it is 1.26, lower than in 83% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":36700,"yv":1.26,"expected":1.58,"pct":17,"lower":33,"higher":163,"z":-0.86}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (37,470 PPP dollars) typically have 88.9%; here it is 86.3%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":37470,"yv":86.27,"expected":88.9,"pct":45,"lower":80,"higher":96,"z":-0.23}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 2.1: 1982; half the population online: 2011. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1982,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2011,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −4.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.42,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-4.56},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.342,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":0.98},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.36,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-0.35},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.355,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":0.01},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.425,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-4.9},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.455,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-6.86},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.61,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-15.83},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.571,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":-13.74},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.303,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":4.01},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.302,"actual":1.3552,"gap_pct":4.09},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.38,"actual":1.24,"gap_pct":-10.14}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-4.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.41 (+14% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.50 (+21% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 1.00.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.24},"values":{"2050":1.413,"2100":1.496},"low_2100":0.996}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −8.8%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2023 expected 1.42 for 2024; the outcome was 1.24.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.41,"actual":1.24,"gap":-12.057,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.3594,"actual":1.24,"gap":-8.785,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.3596,"actual":1.24,"gap":-8.795,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.4151,"actual":1.24,"gap":-12.374,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.3,"actual":1.24,"gap":-4.615,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.26,"actual":1.24,"gap":-1.587,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-8.79,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":76.387,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-1.82},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.87,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-4.91},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":83.812,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-10.52},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":90.629,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-17.25},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":91.7,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-18.22},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":93.638,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-19.91},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":105.514,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-28.92},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":94.95,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-21.01},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":79.989,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-6.24},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":80.717,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":-7.09},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":71.307,"actual":74.9965,"gap_pct":5.17},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":74.942,"actual":65.439,"gap_pct":-12.68}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-11.6,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 65.4k, 4% below the UN 2024 medium variant (68.2k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":68.15,"actual_births_k":65.439,"gap_pct":-4,"un_lower95_births_k":57.61,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (provisional)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=EL"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 67.2k (+3% vs 2025), 2100 — 44k (−33% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 16.2k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":65.439},"values":{"2050":67.18,"2100":43.99},"low_2100":16.23}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=GRC&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}