{"locations":[{"code":"GNQ","name":"Equatorial Guinea","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/equatorial-guinea/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.68 in 1950 → 4.08 in 2023 (−28%). Peak: 5.99 in 1990; the latest value is 32% lower. The trend broke around 1996 and 2006: +0.01 → −0.05 → −0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.676,"last":4.081,"peak":{"year":1990,"value":5.987},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":0.00863,"slope_after":-0.0474},{"year":2006,"slope_before":-0.0474,"slope_after":-0.0846}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 9.64k in 1950 → 54.7k in 2023 (×5.7). The trend broke around 1981: change sped up (+0.12k → +0.87k a year).","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":9.638,"last":54.69,"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":0.117,"slope_after":0.868}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 63.3% in 2024 (+63 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2011, above 50% since 2020. Fastest growth in 2017–2022: 26.2% → 63.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":63.2993,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2017,"to":2022,"start":26.24,"end":63.6595}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 26% in 1960 → 71.6% in 2025 (+46 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 2009. The trend broke around 2005 and 2015: +0.4 → +2.8 → +0.36 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":26.0318,"last":71.5761,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":2009,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":2005,"slope_before":0.397,"slope_after":2.84},{"year":2015,"slope_before":2.84,"slope_after":0.363}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 1,123 PPP dollars in 1990 → 13,786 PPP dollars in 2025 (×12). Peak: 39,995 PPP dollars in 2008; the latest value is 66% lower. The trend broke around 1996 and 2008: +212 → +3,074 → −1,634 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":1122.8177,"last":13786.3933,"peak":{"year":2008,"value":39994.616},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":212,"slope_after":3070},{"year":2008,"slope_before":3070,"slope_after":-1630}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2013–2023: 4.95 → 4.08. Over the same years: births 48.5k → 54.7k; internet 16.4% → 63.5%; urban share 62.2% → 71.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 32,894 PPP dollars → 15,302 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.952,"end":4.081,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":48.51,"end":54.69},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":16.4,"end":63.5195},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":62.212,"end":71.1291},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":32894.3693,"end":15302.1518}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.81,"r_changes":0.108,"effective_pairs_changes":5,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 28 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":28,"r_levels":-0.924,"r_changes":0.062,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.16). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.903,"r_changes":-0.16,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.42); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.422,"r_changes":-0.206,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (15,300 PPP dollars) typically have 2.14; here it is 4.08, higher than in 99% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":15300,"yv":4.081,"expected":2.14,"pct":98,"lower":194,"higher":2,"z":2.43}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (15,000 PPP dollars) typically have 71.1%; here it is 63.3%, lower than in 78% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":15000,"yv":63.3,"expected":71.1,"pct":22,"lower":39,"higher":137,"z":-0.7}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 2009; half the population online: 2020. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":2009,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2020,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +0.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.942,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":15.61},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.71,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":-3.24},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.425,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":2.99},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.199,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":-12.34},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.682,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":-2.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.682,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":-2.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.51,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":1.05},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.405,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":3.46},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.52,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":0.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.554,"actual":4.5574,"gap_pct":0.07},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":4.081,"actual":4.081,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":0.07,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (4.08) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.081,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"year_expected_by":null,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (4.08, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4.081,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.69 (−34% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.91 (−53% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.41.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4.081},"values":{"2050":2.688,"2100":1.91},"low_2100":1.41}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +84%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":22.133,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":135.03},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":26.966,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":92.91},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":24.361,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":113.53},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":26.162,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":98.83},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":23.315,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":123.11},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":29.367,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":77.13},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":28.685,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":81.35},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":28.279,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":83.95},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":30.475,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":70.69},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":43.054,"actual":52.019,"gap_pct":20.82},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":50.317,"actual":54.69,"gap_pct":8.69}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":83.95,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection did not expect today's level (54.7k, 2023) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":54.69,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (54.7k, 2023) only after 2030: reality is at least 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":54.69,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":8,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 69.6k (+27% vs 2023), 2100 — 66.1k (+21% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 31.3k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":54.69},"values":{"2050":69.62,"2100":66.1},"low_2100":31.33}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=GNQ&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}