{"locations":[{"code":"FRA","name":"France","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/france/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.97 in 1950 → 1.56 in 2025 (−47%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 1975. The trend broke around 1966 and 1977: 0 → −0.09 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.965,"last":1.56,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1975,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.00309,"slope_after":-0.0872},{"year":1977,"slope_before":-0.0872,"slope_after":-0.000312}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 866k in 1950 → 639k in 2023 (−26%). The trend broke around 1996 and 2011: −2.54k → +4.03k → −12.1k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":866.4,"last":638.9,"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-2.54,"slope_after":4.03},{"year":2011,"slope_before":4.03,"slope_after":-12.1}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.1% in 1990 → 88.7% in 2024 (+89 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2007. Fastest growth in 2002–2007: 30.2% → 66.1%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0528,"last":88.6538,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2002,"to":2007,"start":30.18,"end":66.09}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 61.7% in 1960 → 78.8% in 2025 (+17 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1995. The trend broke around 1969: change slowed down (+1.1 → +0.15 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":61.6814,"last":78.845,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1995,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1969,"slope_before":1.11,"slope_after":0.152}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 38,656 PPP dollars in 1990 → 55,125 PPP dollars in 2025 (+43%). The trend broke around 2004: change slowed down (+738 → +301 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":38655.8857,"last":55124.5393,"breaks":[{"year":2004,"slope_before":738,"slope_after":301}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 2.78 → 1.83. Over the same years: births 858k → 721k; urban share 68.4% → 73.1%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":2.781,"end":1.832,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":857.5,"end":720.5},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":68.4229,"end":73.082},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.93 → 1.56; births 760k (2015); internet 78% → 88.7%; urban share 77.8% → 78.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 50,683 PPP dollars → 55,125 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.927,"end":1.56,"others":[{"id":"births","year":2015,"value":760.2},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":78.006,"end":88.6538},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":77.7611,"end":78.845},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":50682.8954,"end":55124.5393}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.84); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.92). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.838,"r_changes":0.922,"effective_pairs_changes":46,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.43); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.21).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.428,"r_changes":0.209,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.824,"r_changes":0.009,"effective_pairs_changes":28,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.23); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.225,"r_changes":0.287,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (54,300 PPP dollars) typically have 1.38; here it is 1.66, higher than in 75% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":54300,"yv":1.66,"expected":1.38,"pct":75,"lower":147,"higher":49,"z":0.69}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (54,800 PPP dollars) typically have 96.2%; here it is 88.7%, lower than in 74% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":54800,"yv":88.65,"expected":96.2,"pct":25,"lower":45,"higher":131,"z":-0.68}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 2.1: 1975; half the population online: 2007. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1975,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2007,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −11%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.96,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-13.25},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.861,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-8.64},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.876,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-9.37},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-8.09},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-8.09},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-8.09},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.016,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-15.66},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.984,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-14.3},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.981,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-14.17},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.966,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-13.51},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.848,"actual":1.7003,"gap_pct":-7.99},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.785,"actual":1.56,"gap_pct":-12.61}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-10.99,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.65 (+6% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.65 (+6% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.15.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.56},"values":{"2050":1.647,"2100":1.646},"low_2100":1.146}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −12%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2015 expected 2.00 for 2024; the outcome was 1.61.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":2,"actual":1.61,"gap":-19.5,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":2.0034,"actual":1.61,"gap":-19.637,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.8429,"actual":1.61,"gap":-12.639,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.8176,"actual":1.61,"gap":-11.422,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.78,"actual":1.61,"gap":-9.551,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.63,"actual":1.61,"gap":-1.227,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-12.03,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +0.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":719.216,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":0.84},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":691.367,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":4.9},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":710.131,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":2.13},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":694.367,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":4.44},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":722.711,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":0.35},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":706.594,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":2.64},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":792.447,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":-8.48},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":797.666,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":-9.08},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":776.139,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":-6.56},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":760.039,"actual":725.23,"gap_pct":-4.58},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":671.363,"actual":638.9,"gap_pct":-4.84}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":0.35,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 669k (+5% vs 2023), 2100 — 628k (−2% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 273k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":638.9},"values":{"2050":669.1,"2100":628.3},"low_2100":272.7}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1961–1962 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 2,360 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Finland, Belarus, Austria, Spain, Norway and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +3.7%, 1–5 years after it +10%, 6–10 years after +22%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.19, 1–5 years after it +0.31, 6–10 years after +0.37.","data":{"episode":"FRA-1961","kind":"modern","from":1961,"to":1962,"battle_deaths":2360,"peers":["FIN","BLR","AUT","ESP","NOR","LTU","DNK","BEL","POL","SVK"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":3.74,"own":1.47,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":10.4,"own":2.19,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":21.91,"own":1.76,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.188,"own":0.119,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":0.312,"own":0.134,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.374,"own":-0.135,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.53,"own":0.3,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":2.03,"own":0.5,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":2.53,"own":0.66,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=FRA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}