{"locations":[{"code":"FIN","name":"Finland","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/finland/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.15 in 1950 → 1.30 in 2025 (−59%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1969, below 1.5 since 2017. The trend broke around 1975 and 2010: −0.07 → +0.01 → −0.04 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":3.153,"last":1.3,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1969,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2017,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":-0.0657,"slope_after":0.00591},{"year":2010,"slope_before":0.00591,"slope_after":-0.0424}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 98.4k in 1950 → 45.8k in 2025 (−53%). The trend broke around 1972 and 2012: −1.45k → −0.18k → −1.22k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":98.37,"last":45.832,"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":-1.45,"slope_after":-0.183},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-0.183,"slope_after":-1.22}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.4% in 1990 → 93.7% in 2024 (+93 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1995, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2020. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 25.5% → 69.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.401,"last":93.7241,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1995,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2020,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":25.5,"end":69.22}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 55.6% in 1960 → 74.5% in 2025 (+19 pp). The trend broke around 1975 and 1992: +0.44 → +0.1 → +0.32 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":55.577,"last":74.5248,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.439,"slope_after":0.0987},{"year":1992,"slope_before":0.0987,"slope_after":0.316}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 38,807 PPP dollars in 1990 → 55,735 PPP dollars in 2025 (+44%). Low: 34,487 PPP dollars in 1993; +62% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2005: +381 → +1,776 → +97 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":38807.1185,"last":55735.2175,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":34486.7523},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":381,"slope_after":1780},{"year":2005,"slope_before":1780,"slope_after":97.2}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1963–1973: 2.68 → 1.50. Over the same years: births 82k → 57k; urban share 57.4% → 61.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":2.675,"end":1.501,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":82.03,"end":57.04},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1963,"to":1973,"start":57.3763,"end":61.5516},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.65 → 1.30; births 55.2k → 45.8k; internet 86.4% → 93.7%; urban share 71.3% → 74.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 52,782 PPP dollars → 55,735 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.645,"end":1.3,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":55.2,"end":45.832},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":86.4221,"end":93.7241},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":71.3055,"end":74.5248},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":52782.4874,"end":55735.2175}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.958,"r_changes":0.939,"effective_pairs_changes":52,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.48); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":-0.475,"r_changes":0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":30,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.73); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.34). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.727,"r_changes":-0.338,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.49); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.10).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.493,"r_changes":-0.103,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (56,050 PPP dollars) typically have 1.37; here it is 1.26, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":56050,"yv":1.26,"expected":1.37,"pct":40,"lower":79,"higher":117,"z":-0.31}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (55,900 PPP dollars) typically have 96.6%; here it is 93.7%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":55900,"yv":93.72,"expected":96.6,"pct":42,"lower":75,"higher":101,"z":-0.26}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1953; urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 2.1: 1969; half the population online: 2002. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1953,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1969,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2002,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −27%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-30.25},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.657,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-20.02},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.773,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-25.26},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-28.37},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-28.37},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-28.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.932,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-31.41},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.865,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-28.94},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.78,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-25.55},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.791,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-26.01},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.419,"actual":1.3252,"gap_pct":-6.61},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.418,"actual":1.3,"gap_pct":-8.32}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-27.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.41 (+9% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.51 (+16% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.01.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.3},"values":{"2050":1.414,"2100":1.509},"low_2100":1.009}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 5 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in 1; median gap −9.2%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 1.82 for 2024; the outcome was 1.25.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.82,"actual":1.25,"gap":-31.319,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.711,"actual":1.25,"gap":-26.944,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.354,"actual":1.25,"gap":-7.68,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.3991,"actual":1.25,"gap":-10.657,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.24,"actual":1.25,"gap":0.806,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.27,"actual":1.25,"gap":-1.575,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap":-9.168,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −23%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":57.659,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-21.11},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":51.156,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-11.08},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":55.267,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-17.69},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.81,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-22.65},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.457,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-23.49},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.012,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-24.2},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":62.523,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-27.25},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.94,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-25.36},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.06,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-22.98},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":60.061,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-24.26},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":47.672,"actual":45.4878,"gap_pct":-4.58},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":47.507,"actual":45.832,"gap_pct":-3.53}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-22.81,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection did not expect today's level (45.8k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":45.832,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (45.8k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":45.832,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 45.8k, 4% above the UN 2024 medium variant (43.9k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":43.93,"actual_births_k":45.832,"gap_pct":4.3,"un_lower95_births_k":37.65,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Statistics Finland StatFin tables 12dj (births) and 12dt (TFR), updated 1 Jul 2026","source_url":"https://pxdata.stat.fi/PxWeb/api/v1/en/StatFin/synt/12dj.px"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 42.7k (−7% vs 2025), 2100 — 35.1k (−23% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 13.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":45.832},"values":{"2050":42.66,"2100":35.1},"low_2100":13.7}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=FIN&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}