{"locations":[{"code":"ETH","name":"Ethiopia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/ethiopia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.43 in 1950 → 3.99 in 2023 (−38%). Peak: 7.36 in 1984; the latest value is 46% lower. The trend broke around 1986 and 1999: +0.03 → −0.05 → −0.13 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.433,"last":3.989,"peak":{"year":1984,"value":7.356},"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":0.0309,"slope_after":-0.0455},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.0455,"slope_after":-0.127}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 799k in 1950 → 4.11M in 2023 (×5.1). The trend broke around 1982 and 1995: +34.4k → +77.2k → +40k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":799.1,"last":4106,"breaks":[{"year":1982,"slope_before":34.4,"slope_after":77.2},{"year":1995,"slope_before":77.2,"slope_after":40}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 21.9% in 2024 (+22 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2015. Fastest growth in 2011–2016: 1.1% → 15.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":21.9413,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2015,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2011,"to":2016,"start":1.1,"end":15.3669}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 7.1% in 1960 → 24.1% in 2025 (+17 pp). The trend broke around 2009: change sped up (+0.22 → +0.44 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":7.1088,"last":24.1097,"breaks":[{"year":2009,"slope_before":0.224,"slope_after":0.438}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 874 PPP dollars in 1990 → 3,095 PPP dollars in 2025 (×3.5). Low: 681 PPP dollars in 1992; ×4.5 since then. The trend broke around 2003: change sped up (+3.3 → +77 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":874.3469,"last":3094.8681,"trough":{"year":1992,"value":680.8348},"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":3.33,"slope_after":77}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2004–2014: 6.30 → 4.61. Over the same years: births 3.25M → 3.38M; internet 0.2% → 7.7%; urban share 15.8% → 19%; GDP per person (PPP) 877 PPP dollars → 1,821 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":6.301,"end":4.605,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":3249,"end":3378},{"id":"internet_users","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":0.1553,"end":7.7},{"id":"urban_population","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":15.7586,"end":19.0263},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2004,"to":2014,"start":877.1145,"end":1821.3916}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.71 → 3.99; births 3.31M → 4.11M; internet 4.6% → 20.3%; urban share 18.6% → 23.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 1,697 PPP dollars → 2,758 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.708,"end":3.989,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3312,"end":4106},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.6,"end":20.3375},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":18.6155,"end":23.0586},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1696.8652,"end":2757.9592}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.64); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.69). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.642,"r_changes":0.689,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.865,"r_changes":0.016,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.83); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.83,"r_changes":0.133,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.95); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.28). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.954,"r_changes":-0.282,"effective_pairs_changes":19,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (2,758 PPP dollars) typically have 3.86; here it is 3.99, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":2758,"yv":3.989,"expected":3.86,"pct":57,"lower":112,"higher":84,"z":0.12}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (2,892 PPP dollars) typically have 39.3%; here it is 21.9%, lower than in 94% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":2892,"yv":21.94,"expected":39.3,"pct":6,"lower":10,"higher":166,"z":-1.55}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 4 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +2.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.41,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":-0.26},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":5.59,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":-21.31},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.805,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":-8.46},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.417,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":-0.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.278,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":2.82},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.214,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":4.38},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.245,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":35.55},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.005,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":9.83},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.99,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":10.24},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.025,"actual":4.3987,"gap_pct":9.28},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.976,"actual":3.989,"gap_pct":0.33}],"actual_lower":4,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":2.82,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.99) already around 2021: reality is 2 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.989,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2021,"year_expected_by":null,"years":2,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (3.99) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.989,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"year_expected_by":null,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.55 (−36% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.88 (−53% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.38.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.989},"values":{"2050":2.554,"2100":1.879},"low_2100":1.379}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +6.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3498.686,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":6.08},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3596.683,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":3.19},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3619.219,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":2.54},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3477.903,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":6.71},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3536.375,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":4.95},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3346.383,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":10.9},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2627.199,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":41.26},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3233.402,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":14.78},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3242.779,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":14.45},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3295.322,"actual":3711.3,"gap_pct":12.62},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3964.806,"actual":4106,"gap_pct":3.56}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":6.71,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected today's level (4.11M, 2023) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 7 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4106,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":7,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (4.11M, 2023) only by 2029: reality is at least 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":4106,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2029,"year_expected_by":2029,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 4.79M (+17% vs 2023), 2100 — 4.63M (+13% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.23M.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":4106},"values":{"2050":4791,"2100":4633},"low_2100":2232}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1976–1991 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 79 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Benin, Mongolia, Malawi, Zambia, Eswatini and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −4.3%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.34. The war lasted more than 10 years: its first 10 years are compared, the years after it are not (the pre-war trend is too old).","data":{"episode":"ETH-1976","kind":"modern","from":1976,"to":1991,"battle_deaths":78782,"peers":["BEN","MNG","MWI","ZMB","SWZ","HND","BWA","NAM","CIV","ARE"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-4.26,"own":-3.56,"years":10}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.336,"own":-0.041,"years":10}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":1.1,"own":0,"years":10}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1999–2000 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 79 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Burkina Faso, South Sudan, Malawi, Benin, Zambia and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −3.2%, 1–5 years after it −7.4%, 6–10 years after −17%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.05, 1–5 years after it −0.19, 6–10 years after −0.74.","data":{"episode":"ETH-1999","kind":"modern","from":1999,"to":2000,"battle_deaths":78986,"peers":["BFA","SSD","MWI","BEN","ZMB","MDG","GNQ","MOZ","GMB","TZA"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-3.19,"own":-3.6,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-7.37,"own":-8,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-16.98,"own":-17.12,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.048,"own":-0.072,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.189,"own":-0.2,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.74,"own":-0.678,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.5,"own":-0.97,"years":2},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.81,"own":-2.04,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-4.56,"own":-4.63,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2020–2025 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 318 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Gambia, Zambia, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Madagascar and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +1.4%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.09.","data":{"episode":"ETH-2020","kind":"modern","from":2020,"to":2025,"battle_deaths":317621,"peers":["GMB","ZMB","GNQ","LBR","MDG","SLE","CIV","GNB","COM","GIN"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":1.36,"own":1.78,"years":4}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.091,"own":0.166,"years":4}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.05,"own":0.72,"years":4}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=ETH&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}