{"locations":[{"code":"EST","name":"Estonia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/estonia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.27 in 1950 → 1.35 in 2023 (−41%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1990, below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 1989 and 1995: 0 → −0.13 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.273,"last":1.35,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1990,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.00209,"slope_after":-0.127},{"year":1995,"slope_before":-0.127,"slope_after":0.0107}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 20.1k in 1950 → 11k in 2023 (−45%). Peak: 24.9k in 1987; the latest value is 56% lower. The trend broke around 1989 and 1995: +0.12k → −1.66k → +0.01k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":20.14,"last":11.04,"peak":{"year":1987,"value":24.87},"breaks":[{"year":1989,"slope_before":0.115,"slope_after":-1.66},{"year":1995,"slope_before":-1.66,"slope_after":0.0123}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 92.2% in 2024 (+92 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2004, above 90% since 2021. Fastest growth in 1999–2004: 14.5% → 53.2%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":92.238,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1998,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":14.5,"end":53.2}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 57.6% in 1960 → 70.7% in 2025 (+13 pp). The trend broke around 1984 and 2003: +0.54 → −0.28 → +0.17 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":57.5906,"last":70.7209,"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.537,"slope_after":-0.285},{"year":2003,"slope_before":-0.285,"slope_after":0.173}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 19,161 PPP dollars in 1990 → 41,604 PPP dollars in 2025 (+117%). Low: 13,757 PPP dollars in 1993; ×3 since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2006: −482 → +1,677 → +663 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":19161.4452,"last":41604.3227,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":13757.0156},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-482,"slope_after":1680},{"year":2006,"slope_before":1680,"slope_after":663}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1988–1998: 2.27 → 1.27. Over the same years: births 24.9k → 12.2k; internet 10.8% (1998); urban share 71.4% → 67.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 18,872 PPP dollars (1998).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":2.266,"end":1.272,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":24.86,"end":12.2},{"id":"internet_users","year":1998,"value":10.8},{"id":"urban_population","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":71.405,"end":67.6522},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1998,"value":18871.6197}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.52 → 1.35; births 13.6k → 11k; internet 80% → 93.2%; urban share 68.1% → 70.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 34,481 PPP dollars → 41,285 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.524,"end":1.35,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13.59,"end":11.04},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":80.0043,"end":93.1834},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":68.0923,"end":70.677},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":34481.0149,"end":41284.7747}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.95); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.97). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.949,"r_changes":0.968,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.30); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.49).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":0.303,"r_changes":0.495,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.08); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.084,"r_changes":0.252,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.26); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.47).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":0.257,"r_changes":0.469,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (41,280 PPP dollars) typically have 1.52; here it is 1.35, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":41280,"yv":1.35,"expected":1.52,"pct":34,"lower":67,"higher":129,"z":-0.45}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (41,190 PPP dollars) typically have 90.7%; here it is 92.2%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":41190,"yv":92.24,"expected":90.7,"pct":54,"lower":96,"higher":80,"z":0.14}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; fertility below 2.1: 1956; urban majority: already in 1960; half the population online: 2004. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1956,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"internet50":{"year":2004,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.425,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":13.89},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.4,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":15.92},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.38,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":17.6},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.573,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":3.17},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.586,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":2.33},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.835,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":-11.56},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.756,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":-7.58},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.659,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":-2.18},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.656,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":-2},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.659,"actual":1.6229,"gap_pct":-2.18},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.676,"actual":1.35,"gap_pct":-19.45}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-2,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (1.35) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.35,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"year_expected_by":null,"years":11,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (1.35) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.35,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"year_expected_by":null,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.51 (+12% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.57 (+17% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.07.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.35},"values":{"2050":1.508,"2100":1.574},"low_2100":1.074}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −24%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2015 expected 1.72 for 2024; the outcome was 1.18.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.71,"actual":1.18,"gap":-30.994,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.7178,"actual":1.18,"gap":-31.306,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.5244,"actual":1.18,"gap":-22.595,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.5923,"actual":1.18,"gap":-25.896,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.36,"actual":1.18,"gap":-13.235,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.31,"actual":1.18,"gap":-9.924,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-24.245,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +1.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":10.103,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":38.07},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":10.64,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":31.1},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":10.283,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":35.65},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.461,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":3.63},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.789,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":1.16},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":16.452,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":-15.21},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":15.723,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":-11.28},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.798,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":1.09},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.034,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":-0.61},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.956,"actual":13.949,"gap_pct":-0.05},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":13.102,"actual":11.04,"gap_pct":-15.74}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":1.09,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2000 projection expected this level (11k) already around 2014: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2000","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":11.04,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2014,"year_expected_by":null,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (11k, 2023) only after 2030: reality is at least 8 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":11.04,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":8,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 9.78k (−11% vs 2023), 2100 — 6.1k (−45% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 2.07k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":11.04},"values":{"2050":9.775,"2100":6.095},"low_2100":2.072}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=EST&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}