{"locations":[{"code":"ESP","name":"Spain","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/spain/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.47 in 1950 → 1.10 in 2024 (−55%). Peak: 3.00 in 1964; the latest value is 63% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1981, below 1.5 since 1987. The trend broke around 1972 and 1989: +0.03 → −0.1 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":2.47,"last":1.1,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.998},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1981,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":1987,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":0.0264,"slope_after":-0.104},{"year":1989,"slope_before":-0.104,"slope_after":-0.000812}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 563k in 1950 → 321k in 2025 (−43%). Peak: 692k in 1964; the latest value is 54% lower. The trend broke around 1975 and 1986: +4.26k → −24.5k → −1.19k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":563,"last":321.442,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":692},"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":4.26,"slope_after":-24.5},{"year":1986,"slope_before":-24.5,"slope_after":-1.19}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 95.8% in 2024 (+96 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2000, above 50% since 2006, above 90% since 2019. Fastest growth in 1999–2004: 7.1% → 44%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0129,"last":95.7575,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2000,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1999,"to":2004,"start":7.09,"end":44.01}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 56.5% in 1960 → 80.5% in 2025 (+24 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1991. The trend broke around 1971 and 1985: +1 → +0.48 → +0.17 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":56.4544,"last":80.5149,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1991,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.997,"slope_after":0.478},{"year":1985,"slope_before":0.478,"slope_after":0.173}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 31,773 PPP dollars in 1990 → 49,318 PPP dollars in 2025 (+55%). The trend broke around 2007 and 2013: +876 → −675 → +625 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":31773.2267,"last":49318.1056,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":876,"slope_after":-675},{"year":2013,"slope_before":-675,"slope_after":625}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1976–1986: 2.76 → 1.55. Over the same years: births 678k → 442k; urban share 69.6% → 73.8%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":2.764,"end":1.554,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":678,"end":442.4},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1976,"to":1986,"start":69.6163,"end":73.804},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2014–2024): fertility (TFR) 1.32 → 1.10; births 425k → 317k; internet 76.2% → 95.8%; urban share 79.1% → 80.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 41,339 PPP dollars → 48,460 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":1.315,"end":1.1,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":424.7,"end":317.255},{"id":"internet_users","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":76.1867,"end":95.7575},{"id":"urban_population","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":79.1197,"end":80.3152},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2014,"to":2024,"start":41339.4111,"end":48460.2914}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2024, 75 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.97); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.92). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"years":75,"r_levels":0.973,"r_changes":0.922,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.11); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.53). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.111,"r_changes":0.531,"effective_pairs_changes":24,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2024, 65 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.33). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2024,"years":65,"r_levels":-0.903,"r_changes":0.33,"effective_pairs_changes":14,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.12); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.35).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.12,"r_changes":0.353,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (47,320 PPP dollars) typically have 1.45; here it is 1.12, lower than in 85% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":47320,"yv":1.12,"expected":1.45,"pct":15,"lower":29,"higher":167,"z":-0.97}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (48,460 PPP dollars) typically have 93.8%; here it is 95.8%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":48460,"yv":95.76,"expected":93.8,"pct":55,"lower":98,"higher":78,"z":0.17}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 2.1: 1981; half the population online: 2006. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1981,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2006,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −14%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.31,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-2.53},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.216,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":5.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.3,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-1.78},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.488,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-14.19},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.546,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-17.41},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.649,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-22.57},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.585,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-19.44},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.568,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-18.57},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.382,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-7.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.391,"actual":1.2769,"gap_pct":-8.2},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":1.303,"actual":1.1,"gap_pct":-15.58}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-14.19,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.36 (+24% vs 2024), 2100 — 1.48 (+35% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 0.98.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":1.1},"values":{"2050":1.362,"2100":1.483},"low_2100":0.983}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −12%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2015 expected 1.69 for 2024; the outcome was 1.10.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.39,"actual":1.1,"gap":-20.863,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.6891,"actual":1.1,"gap":-34.875,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.2978,"actual":1.1,"gap":-15.243,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.1987,"actual":1.1,"gap":-8.233,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.16,"actual":1.1,"gap":-5.172,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.11,"actual":1.1,"gap":-0.901,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-11.738,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 3; median gap −10%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":260.859,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":25.62},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":257.681,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":27.17},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":306.005,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":7.09},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":356.486,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":-8.07},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":390.232,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":-16.02},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":448.006,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":-26.85},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":432.29,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":-24.19},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":405.524,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":-19.19},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":364.114,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":-10},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":364.378,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":-10.07},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":368.148,"actual":327.702,"gap_pct":-10.99},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":344.431,"actual":321.442,"gap_pct":-6.67}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":3,"median_gap_pct":-10.04,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 321k, 3% below the UN 2024 medium variant (330k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":330,"actual_births_k":321.442,"gap_pct":-2.6,"un_lower95_births_k":276.6,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (provisional)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=ES"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 318k (−1% vs 2025), 2100 — 245k (−24% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 93.1k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":321.442},"values":{"2050":317.7,"2100":244.7},"low_2100":93.09}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=ESP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}