{"locations":[{"code":"ERI","name":"Eritrea","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/eritrea/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.52 in 1950 → 3.71 in 2023 (−43%). The trend broke around 1987: direction reversed (0 → −0.09 a year).","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":6.522,"last":3.713,"breaks":[{"year":1987,"slope_before":0.00364,"slope_after":-0.0906}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 36.2k in 1950 → 99.1k in 2023 (×2.7). The trend broke around 1986 and 2010: +1.27k → +0.71k → −0.08k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":36.21,"last":99.06,"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":1.27,"slope_after":0.708},{"year":2010,"slope_before":0.708,"slope_after":-0.0847}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 14.3% in 2020 (+14 pp). Threshold: above 10% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 1.1% → 14.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2020,"first":0,"last":14.3494,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":1.0837,"end":14.3494}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 10.4% in 1960 → 34.5% in 2025 (+24 pp). The trend broke around 1988 and 2000: +0.18 → +1.6 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":10.4015,"last":34.5405,"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.184,"slope_after":1.6},{"year":2000,"slope_before":1.6,"slope_after":0.00456}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1995–2005: 5.94 → 4.93. Over the same years: births 79.9k → 96.8k; internet 0% (1995); urban share 27.2% → 35.1%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":5.939,"end":4.934,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":79.93,"end":96.79},{"id":"internet_users","year":1995,"value":0},{"id":"urban_population","from":1995,"to":2005,"start":27.2435,"end":35.1022}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 4.34 → 3.71; births 97.5k → 99.1k; internet 0.9% (2013); urban share 35.7% → 34.7%.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":4.335,"end":3.713,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":97.46,"end":99.06},{"id":"internet_users","year":2013,"value":0.9},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":35.6713,"end":34.6964}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.75); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.754,"r_changes":0.095,"effective_pairs_changes":73,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2020, 25 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.55); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.05).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2020,"years":25,"r_levels":-0.553,"r_changes":0.051,"effective_pairs_changes":10,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = −0.68). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.917,"r_changes":-0.68,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +1.4%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.517,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":16.03},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.01,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":1.76},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.699,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":10.32},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.034,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":1.16},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.034,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":1.16},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.705,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":10.14},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.844,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":6.16},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.301,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":-5.12},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.025,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":1.38},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":4.027,"actual":4.0807,"gap_pct":1.33},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":3.713,"actual":3.713,"gap_pct":0}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":1.38,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (3.71) already around 2015: reality is 8 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.713,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2015,"year_expected_by":null,"years":8,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (3.71, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":3.713,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.60 (−30% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.95 (−47% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.45.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":3.713},"values":{"2050":2.601,"2100":1.95},"low_2100":1.45}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −51%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":170.188,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-44.81},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":194.606,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-51.73},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":193.419,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-51.44},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":200.409,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-53.13},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":202.912,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-53.71},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":186.323,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-49.59},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":196.851,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-52.28},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":241.157,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-61.05},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":176.332,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-46.73},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":160.735,"actual":93.93,"gap_pct":-41.56},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":106.263,"actual":99.06,"gap_pct":-6.78}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-51.44,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 117k (+18% vs 2023), 2100 — 105k (+6% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 47.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":99.06},"values":{"2050":116.9,"2100":104.8},"low_2100":47.44}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1975–1991 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 159 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Namibia, Botswana, Eswatini, Benin, United Arab Emirates and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −2.8%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.28. The war lasted more than 10 years: its first 10 years are compared, the years after it are not (the pre-war trend is too old).","data":{"episode":"ERI-1975","kind":"modern","from":1975,"to":1991,"battle_deaths":159047,"peers":["NAM","BWA","SWZ","BEN","ARE","HND","TKM","MWI","ZMB","MNG"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-2.77,"own":1.36,"years":10}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.276,"own":0.012,"years":10}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.85,"own":0.59,"years":10}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1998–2000 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 20 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Tanzania, Gambia, Mozambique, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +2.8%, 1–5 years after it +9%, 6–10 years after +16%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.10, 1–5 years after it −0.20, 6–10 years after −0.35.","data":{"episode":"ERI-1998","kind":"modern","from":1998,"to":2000,"battle_deaths":19788,"peers":["TZA","GMB","MOZ","GNQ","MDG","TGO","ZMB","KEN","BEN","MWI"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":2.83,"own":2.37,"years":3},"p1_5":{"gap":9.03,"own":8.76,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":16.25,"own":16.9,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.099,"own":-0.082,"years":3},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.201,"own":-0.144,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.351,"own":-0.14,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.96,"own":-1.36,"years":3},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.74,"own":-2.02,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-2.65,"own":-2,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=ERI&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}