{"locations":[{"code":"EGY","name":"Egypt","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/egypt/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.06 in 1950 → 2.75 in 2023 (−61%). The trend broke around 1985 and 1996: −0.06 → −0.14 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.058,"last":2.75,"breaks":[{"year":1985,"slope_before":-0.0604,"slope_after":-0.14},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.14,"slope_after":-0.0265}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.16M in 1950 → 2.41M in 2023 (+108%). Peak: 2.81M in 2015; the latest value is 14% lower. The trend broke around 2006 and 2014: +18.8k → +74.3k → −53k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":1155,"last":2406,"peak":{"year":2015,"value":2807},"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":18.8,"slope_after":74.3},{"year":2014,"slope_before":74.3,"slope_after":-53}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 74.6% in 2024 (+75 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2004, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2015–2020: 37.8% → 71.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":74.6484,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2015,"to":2020,"start":37.8194,"end":71.9142}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 37.8% in 1960 → 42.9% in 2025 (+5.1 pp). The trend broke around 1966 and 1975: +0.58 → +0.28 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":37.8263,"last":42.9043,"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.583,"slope_after":0.28},{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.28,"slope_after":-0.0306}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 8,007 PPP dollars in 1990 → 17,265 PPP dollars in 2025 (+116%).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":8006.6214,"last":17265.1489}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1985–1995: 5.12 → 3.76. Over the same years: births 1.94M → 1.88M; internet 0% (1995); urban share 44% → 42.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 8,424 PPP dollars (1995).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":5.116,"end":3.764,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":1935,"end":1876},{"id":"internet_users","year":1995,"value":0.0313},{"id":"urban_population","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":43.9622,"end":42.7019},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1995,"value":8423.5782}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.49 → 2.75; births 2.73M → 2.41M; internet 29.4% → 74%; urban share 42.8% → 42.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 13,058 PPP dollars → 16,691 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":3.49,"end":2.75,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2726,"end":2406},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":29.4,"end":74.0119},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":42.7514,"end":42.7098},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13058.0748,"end":16691.3874}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.82). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.923,"r_changes":0.818,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.79); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.06). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.789,"r_changes":-0.065,"effective_pairs_changes":27,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.34); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.34,"r_changes":0.25,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.86); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.11). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.864,"r_changes":-0.108,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (16,690 PPP dollars) typically have 2.08; here it is 2.75, higher than in 85% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":16690,"yv":2.75,"expected":2.08,"pct":85,"lower":167,"higher":29,"z":1.06}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (16,800 PPP dollars) typically have 73.3%; here it is 74.7%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":16800,"yv":74.65,"expected":73.3,"pct":54,"lower":95,"higher":81,"z":0.12}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: half the population online: 2019; fertility below 3: 2019. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"internet50":{"year":2019,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":2019,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +25%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":49.76},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":49.76},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.504,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":25.6},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.568,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":22.47},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.507,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":25.45},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.507,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":25.45},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.46,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":27.85},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.623,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":19.9},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.162,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":-0.54},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":3.155,"actual":3.145,"gap_pct":-0.32},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.845,"actual":2.75,"gap_pct":-3.34}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":25.45,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection expected this level (2.75) already around 2012: reality is 11 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.75,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"year_expected_by":null,"years":11,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (2.75, 2023) only after 2035: reality is at least 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.75,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":12,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.21 (−20% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.84 (−33% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.34.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.75},"values":{"2050":2.212,"2100":1.839},"low_2100":1.339}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +35%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1587.924,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":62.63},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1581.98,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":63.24},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1919.149,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":34.56},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1907.303,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":35.4},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1837.627,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":40.53},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1989.89,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":29.78},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1851.482,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":39.48},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1881.519,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":37.25},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2412.571,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":7.04},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2461.24,"actual":2582.4,"gap_pct":4.92},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2449.346,"actual":2406,"gap_pct":-1.77}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":35.4,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.58M (+7% vs 2023), 2100 — 2.2M (−9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 943k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2406},"values":{"2050":2578,"2100":2198},"low_2100":943.1}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1956–1956 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 2,142 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Mali, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Senegal, Zambia and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −1.6%, 1–5 years after it −5.2%, 6–10 years after −9.4%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.07, 1–5 years after it −0.22, 6–10 years after −0.56.","data":{"episode":"EGY-1956","kind":"modern","from":1956,"to":1956,"battle_deaths":2142,"peers":["MLI","ZWE","MWI","SEN","ZMB","LBY","UGA","SDN","TGO","MDG"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-1.58,"own":-1.45,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-5.17,"own":-4.28,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-9.37,"own":-7.02,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.072,"own":-0.068,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.218,"own":-0.181,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.557,"own":-0.459,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-0.88,"own":-0.85,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-2.5,"own":-2.31,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-4.23,"own":-3.81,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1967–1967 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 3,337 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Sierra Leone, Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Namibia, Burkina Faso and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +0.9%, 1–5 years after it +4.1%, 6–10 years after +8.9%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.07, 1–5 years after it −0.01, 6–10 years after +0.13.","data":{"episode":"EGY-1967","kind":"modern","from":1967,"to":1967,"battle_deaths":3337,"peers":["SLE","COG","GIN","NAM","BFA","CAF","BWA","BEN","LBR","PNG"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":0.93,"own":1.12,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":4.12,"own":3.9,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":8.91,"own":9.48,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.07,"own":-0.064,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.009,"own":-0.062,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.125,"own":-0.038,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.67,"own":0.65,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":2.17,"own":2.2,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":6.13,"own":5.26,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1973–1973 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 6,450 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Central African Republic, Lesotho, Bolivia, Ecuador, Haiti and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +0.6%, 1–5 years after it +3.1%, 6–10 years after +5%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.07, 1–5 years after it +0.18, 6–10 years after +0.26.","data":{"episode":"EGY-1973","kind":"modern","from":1973,"to":1973,"battle_deaths":6450,"peers":["CAF","LSO","BOL","ECU","HTI","DOM","GIN","CMR","NPL","COG"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":0.56,"own":0.45,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":3.05,"own":2.65,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":4.98,"own":4.37,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.069,"own":0.02,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":0.178,"own":0.119,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.263,"own":0.201,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.66,"own":0.39,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":1.63,"own":1.47,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":2.02,"own":2.09,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=EGY&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}