{"locations":[{"code":"DZA","name":"Algeria","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/algeria/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.32 in 1950 → 2.77 in 2023 (−62%). Peak: 7.71 in 1967; the latest value is 64% lower. The trend broke around 1977 and 1999: +0.01 → −0.23 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.324,"last":2.766,"peak":{"year":1967,"value":7.712},"breaks":[{"year":1977,"slope_before":0.0124,"slope_after":-0.234},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-0.234,"slope_after":0.0218}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 456k in 1950 → 906k in 2023 (+99%). Peak: 1.04M in 2017; the latest value is 13% lower. The trend broke around 1986 and 1999: +11k → −17.1k → +19.5k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":456.4,"last":906,"peak":{"year":2017,"value":1043},"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":11,"slope_after":-17.1},{"year":1999,"slope_before":-17.1,"slope_after":19.5}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 77.4% in 2024 (+77 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2008, above 50% since 2019. Fastest growth in 2012–2017: 18.2% → 47.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":77.4178,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2019,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2012,"to":2017,"start":18.2,"end":47.6911}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 31.3% in 1960 → 75.8% in 2025 (+44 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1988, above 75% since 2024. The trend broke around 1979: change sped up (+0.43 → +0.83 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":31.3413,"last":75.8187,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1988,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1979,"slope_before":0.425,"slope_after":0.83}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 11,729 PPP dollars in 1990 → 15,883 PPP dollars in 2025 (+35%). Low: 10,414 PPP dollars in 1994; +53% since then. The trend broke around 1996 and 2008: −202 → +345 → +54 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":11728.5457,"last":15882.7139,"trough":{"year":1994,"value":10414.0348},"breaks":[{"year":1996,"slope_before":-202,"slope_after":345},{"year":2008,"slope_before":345,"slope_after":53.8}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1985–1995: 6.04 → 3.49. Over the same years: births 840k → 699k; internet 0% (1995); urban share 47.9% → 56%; GDP per person (PPP) 10,588 PPP dollars (1995).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":6.035,"end":3.487,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":839.5,"end":699.2},{"id":"internet_users","year":1995,"value":0.0018},{"id":"urban_population","from":1985,"to":1995,"start":47.9115,"end":56.0131},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1995,"value":10588.4434}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 3.00 → 2.77; births 981k → 906k; internet 22.5% → 76.2%; urban share 68.9% → 74.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 14,778 PPP dollars → 15,159 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.997,"end":2.766,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":980.5,"end":906},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":22.5,"end":76.1976},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":68.9464,"end":74.7328},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":14778.1914,"end":15159.3242}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.56); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.71). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.557,"r_changes":0.711,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 31 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.01); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.03).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":31,"r_levels":-0.006,"r_changes":-0.027,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.935,"r_changes":-0.133,"effective_pairs_changes":7,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.37); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.22).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.372,"r_changes":0.217,"effective_pairs_changes":18,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (15,160 PPP dollars) typically have 2.15; here it is 2.77, higher than in 82% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":15160,"yv":2.766,"expected":2.15,"pct":82,"lower":161,"higher":35,"z":0.95}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (15,500 PPP dollars) typically have 71.8%; here it is 77.4%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":15500,"yv":77.42,"expected":71.8,"pct":70,"lower":124,"higher":52,"z":0.5}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1988; fertility below 3: 1997; half the population online: 2019. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1988,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1997,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2019,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 1 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 10; median gap +41%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":44.88},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":44.88},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.08,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":46.27},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.166,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":40.47},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.163,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":40.66},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.163,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":40.66},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.962,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":55.07},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.545,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":19.55},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.618,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":16.21},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.65,"actual":3.0425,"gap_pct":14.81},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":2.767,"actual":2.766,"gap_pct":-0.04}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":10,"median_gap_pct":40.66,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (2.77) already around 2013: reality is 10 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.766,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2013,"year_expected_by":null,"years":10,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (2.77, 2023) only by 2024: reality is at least 1 year ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":2.766,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2024,"year_expected_by":2024,"years":1,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 2.00 (−28% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.78 (−36% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.28.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":2.766},"values":{"2050":1.999,"2100":1.776},"low_2100":1.276}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +40%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":746.366,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":37.4},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":697.563,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":47.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":690.695,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":48.47},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":732.792,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":39.94},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":731.377,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":40.21},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":731.309,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":40.23},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":665.727,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":54.04},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":900.33,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":13.9},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":887.943,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":15.49},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":900.002,"actual":1025.49,"gap_pct":13.94},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":895.418,"actual":906,"gap_pct":1.18}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":39.94,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection expected this level (906k) already around 2016: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":906,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"year_expected_by":null,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected this level (906k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":906,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"year_expected_by":null,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 859k (−5% vs 2023), 2100 — 598k (−34% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 242k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":906},"values":{"2050":859.2,"2100":598},"low_2100":241.9}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1955–1961 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 142 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Libya, Niger, Côte d'Ivoire, Afghanistan, Mali and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −0.9%, 1–5 years after it −7.3%, 6–10 years after −14%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.13, 1–5 years after it +0.30, 6–10 years after +0.33.","data":{"episode":"DZA-1955","kind":"modern","from":1955,"to":1961,"battle_deaths":141965,"peers":["LBY","NER","CIV","AFG","MLI","SEN","MWI","ZMB","SAU","TGO"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-0.89,"own":-0.37,"years":7},"p1_5":{"gap":-7.34,"own":-4.56,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-13.5,"own":-8.13,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.134,"own":0.155,"years":7},"p1_5":{"gap":0.303,"own":0.416,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.328,"own":0.468,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.74,"own":0.71,"years":7},"p1_5":{"gap":1.56,"own":1.09,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.99,"own":0.78,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1994–1999 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 11 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Botswana, Libya, Zimbabwe, United Arab Emirates, Turkmenistan and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +0.3%, 1–5 years after it +2.2%, 6–10 years after +27%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.17, 1–5 years after it +0.66, 6–10 years after +1.58.","data":{"episode":"DZA-1994","kind":"modern","from":1994,"to":1999,"battle_deaths":11483,"peers":["BWA","LBY","ZWE","ARE","TKM","SWZ","BOL","NAM","BHR","KGZ"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":0.33,"own":-10.89,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":2.23,"own":-9.2,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":27,"own":19.95,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.171,"own":0.094,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":0.663,"own":0.843,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":1.575,"own":2.295,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":0.82,"own":-0.39,"years":6},"p1_5":{"gap":3.64,"own":3.82,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":9.84,"own":13.31,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=DZA&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}