{"locations":[{"code":"DNK","name":"Denmark","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/denmark/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.57 in 1950 → 1.51 in 2023 (−41%). Peak: 2.66 in 1963; the latest value is 43% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1969. The trend broke around 1964 and 1978: 0 → −0.07 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":2.572,"last":1.511,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":2.655},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1969,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":0.000972,"slope_after":-0.0713},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.0713,"slope_after":0.00492}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 79.5k in 1950 → 57.8k in 2023 (−27%). Peak: 88.1k in 1966; the latest value is 34% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1980: +0.38k → −1.54k → +0.07k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":79.45,"last":57.81,"peak":{"year":1966,"value":88.06},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.382,"slope_after":-1.54},{"year":1980,"slope_before":-1.54,"slope_after":0.0722}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.1% in 1990 → 99.8% in 2024 (+100 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1997, above 50% since 2002, above 90% since 2012. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 22.7% → 76.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.0973,"last":99.7692,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1997,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":22.7,"end":76.26}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 74% in 1960 → 88.8% in 2025 (+15 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1962. The trend broke around 1978: change slowed down (+0.54 → +0.07 a year).","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":73.9614,"last":88.8458,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1962,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.539,"slope_after":0.0687}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 45,944 PPP dollars in 1990 → 72,723 PPP dollars in 2025 (+58%). The trend broke around 2006 and 2012: +1,077 → −498 → +956 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":45943.8875,"last":72723.2748,"breaks":[{"year":2006,"slope_before":1080,"slope_after":-498},{"year":2012,"slope_before":-498,"slope_after":956}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1966–1976: 2.61 → 1.75. Over the same years: births 88.1k → 65.3k; urban share 77.5% → 82.6%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":2.607,"end":1.75,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":88.06,"end":65.34},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1966,"to":1976,"start":77.4626,"end":82.6123},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.67 → 1.51; births 55.7k → 57.8k; internet 94.6% → 98.8%; urban share 87.5% → 88.6%; GDP per person (PPP) 60,746 PPP dollars → 68,994 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.67,"end":1.511,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":55.72,"end":57.81},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":94.6297,"end":98.7756},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":87.5437,"end":88.5526},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":60745.7785,"end":68993.9031}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.916,"r_changes":0.938,"effective_pairs_changes":56,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.09); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.089,"r_changes":-0.022,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.81); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = −0.36).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.806,"r_changes":-0.364,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.20); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.39).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.2,"r_changes":0.393,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (68,990 PPP dollars) typically have 1.27; here it is 1.51, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":68990,"yv":1.511,"expected":1.27,"pct":74,"lower":146,"higher":50,"z":0.64}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (71,030 PPP dollars) typically have 101%; here it is 99.8%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":71030,"yv":99.77,"expected":101,"pct":47,"lower":83,"higher":93,"z":-0.13}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 2.1: 1969; half the population online: 2002. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1969,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2002,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −6.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.87,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":-7.56},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.664,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":3.88},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.787,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":-3.27},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.847,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":-6.41},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":-6.56},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":-6.56},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.915,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":-9.73},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.892,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":-8.64},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.761,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":-1.84},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.762,"actual":1.7286,"gap_pct":-1.9},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.718,"actual":1.511,"gap_pct":-12.05}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-6.56,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.57 (+4% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.61 (+7% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.11.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.511},"values":{"2050":1.574,"2100":1.614},"low_2100":1.114}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −13%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 1.79 for 2024; the outcome was 1.47.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.79,"actual":1.47,"gap":-17.877,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.7153,"actual":1.47,"gap":-14.302,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.7277,"actual":1.47,"gap":-14.917,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.6832,"actual":1.47,"gap":-12.667,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.54,"actual":1.47,"gap":-4.545,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.5,"actual":1.47,"gap":-2,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-13.485,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −0.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":57.024,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":6.5},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":51.58,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":17.74},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":55.427,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":9.56},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.165,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":-0.71},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":59.364,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":2.3},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":59.332,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":2.35},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":65.25,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":-6.93},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":65.532,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":-7.33},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.116,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":-0.63},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":61.283,"actual":60.728,"gap_pct":-0.91},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":65.003,"actual":57.81,"gap_pct":-11.07}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-0.63,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (57.8k, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":57.81,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 56.3k (−3% vs 2023), 2100 — 51.4k (−11% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 21.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":57.81},"values":{"2050":56.29,"2100":51.39},"low_2100":21.44}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=DNK&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}