{"locations":[{"code":"DEU","name":"Germany","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/germany/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.19 in 1950 → 1.32 in 2025 (−40%). Peak: 2.53 in 1964; the latest value is 48% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1970, below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 1966 and 1975: +0.03 → −0.13 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.194,"last":1.32,"peak":{"year":1964,"value":2.525},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1970,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":0.029,"slope_after":-0.127},{"year":1975,"slope_before":-0.127,"slope_after":0.000321}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 1.21M in 1950 → 654k in 2025 (−46%). Peak: 1.36M in 1963; the latest value is 52% lower. The trend broke around 1966 and 1973: +15.6k → −71.4k → −2.84k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":1206,"last":654.241,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":1357},"breaks":[{"year":1966,"slope_before":15.6,"slope_after":-71.4},{"year":1973,"slope_before":-71.4,"slope_after":-2.84}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.1% in 1990 → 93.5% in 2024 (+93 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2003, above 90% since 2021. Fastest growth in 1998–2003: 9.9% → 55.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0.126,"last":93.5,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1998,"to":2003,"start":9.88,"end":55.9}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 75.7% in 1960 → 82.1% in 2025 (+6.4 pp). The trend broke around 1968 and 2012: +0.5 → +0.01 → +0.14 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":75.6992,"last":82.1382,"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":0.497,"slope_after":0.0141},{"year":2012,"slope_before":0.0141,"slope_after":0.143}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 42,355 PPP dollars in 1990 → 62,824 PPP dollars in 2025 (+48%). The trend broke around 2018: change slowed down (+697 → +209 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":42355.2861,"last":62823.7737,"breaks":[{"year":2018,"slope_before":697,"slope_after":209}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 2.49 → 1.48. Over the same years: births 1.31M → 781k; urban share 78.3% → 79.8%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":2.487,"end":1.477,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":1314,"end":780.7},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":78.2575,"end":79.8177},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.50 → 1.32; births 733k → 654k; internet 87.6% → 93.5%; urban share 80.7% → 82.1%; GDP per person (PPP) 59,669 PPP dollars → 62,824 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.501,"end":1.32,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":732.5,"end":654.241},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":87.5898,"end":93.5},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":80.6974,"end":82.1382},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":59668.989,"end":62823.7737}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.96); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.962,"r_changes":0.944,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 35 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.62); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.11).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":35,"r_levels":0.62,"r_changes":0.106,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.18). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.739,"r_changes":0.178,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.67); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.10).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.667,"r_changes":0.098,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (63,140 PPP dollars) typically have 1.31; here it is 1.39, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":63140,"yv":1.39,"expected":1.31,"pct":60,"lower":119,"higher":77,"z":0.21}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (62,650 PPP dollars) typically have 98.8%; here it is 93.5%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":62650,"yv":93.5,"expected":98.8,"pct":33,"lower":59,"higher":117,"z":-0.48}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 2.1: 1970; half the population online: 2003. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1970,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2003,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.575,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":-8.41},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.399,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":3.12},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.53,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":-5.71},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.55,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":-6.93},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.485,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":-2.86},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.439,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":0.25},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.621,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":-11.01},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.502,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":-3.95},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.475,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":-2.2},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.507,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":-4.27},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.612,"actual":1.4426,"gap_pct":-10.51},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.541,"actual":1.32,"gap_pct":-14.34}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-4.99,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.54 (+17% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.60 (+21% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.10.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.32},"values":{"2050":1.538,"2100":1.597},"low_2100":1.097}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −9.1%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2019 expected 1.54 for 2024; the outcome was 1.36.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.48,"actual":1.36,"gap":-8.108,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.513,"actual":1.36,"gap":-10.113,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.5414,"actual":1.36,"gap":-11.771,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.5387,"actual":1.36,"gap":-11.611,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.43,"actual":1.36,"gap":-4.895,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.38,"actual":1.36,"gap":-1.449,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-9.111,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 6 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":697.671,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":3.52},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":630.717,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":14.51},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":738.07,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":-2.15},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":745.42,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":-3.11},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":691.083,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":4.51},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":647.201,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":11.59},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":730.127,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":-1.08},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":690.964,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":4.52},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":697.12,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":3.6},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":744.222,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":-2.96},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":784.053,"actual":722.2253,"gap_pct":-7.89},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":743.827,"actual":654.241,"gap_pct":-12.04}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":1.22,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (654k, 2025) only by 2030–2035: reality is at least 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":654.241,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2035,"years":5,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (654k, 2025) only after 2050: reality is at least 26 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":654.241,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2051,"year_expected_by":2100,"years":26,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 654k, 8% below the UN 2024 medium variant (708k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":708,"actual_births_k":654.241,"gap_pct":-7.6,"un_lower95_births_k":612.2,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Destatis press release No. 230 of 1 July 2026","source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2026/07/PD26_230_12.html"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 691k (+6% vs 2025), 2100 — 610k (−7% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 258k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":654.241},"values":{"2050":690.6,"2100":609.7},"low_2100":257.6}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=DEU&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}