{"locations":[{"code":"CZE","name":"Czechia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/czechia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.82 in 1950 → 1.28 in 2025 (−55%). Low: 1.14 in 1999; +13% since then. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1980, below 1.5 since 2023. The trend broke around 1991 and 1997: −0.02 → −0.12 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.818,"last":1.28,"trough":{"year":1999,"value":1.136},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1980,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2023,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1991,"slope_before":-0.0168,"slope_after":-0.117},{"year":1997,"slope_before":-0.117,"slope_after":0.02}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 189k in 1950 → 77.6k in 2025 (−59%). Peak: 195k in 1974; the latest value is 60% lower. The trend broke around 1978 and 1996: +0.29k → −3.53k → +0.23k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":189.1,"last":77.636,"peak":{"year":1974,"value":195.3},"breaks":[{"year":1978,"slope_before":0.292,"slope_after":-3.53},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-3.53,"slope_after":0.225}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 87.7% in 2024 (+88 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2007. Fastest growth in 2005–2010: 35.3% → 68.8%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":87.6878,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2007,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2005,"to":2010,"start":35.27,"end":68.82}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 59.6% in 1960 → 72.9% in 2025 (+13 pp). The trend broke around 1975 and 1982: +0.53 → +1.2 → −0.08 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":59.5591,"last":72.8754,"breaks":[{"year":1975,"slope_before":0.532,"slope_after":1.19},{"year":1982,"slope_before":1.19,"slope_after":-0.0776}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 27,918 PPP dollars in 1990 → 49,292 PPP dollars in 2025 (+77%). Low: 24,574 PPP dollars in 1993; +101% since then. The trend broke around 2000 and 2006: +346 → +1,399 → +656 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":27918.1375,"last":49292.4879,"trough":{"year":1993,"value":24573.9915},"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":346,"slope_after":1400},{"year":2006,"slope_before":1400,"slope_after":656}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1988–1998: 1.93 → 1.16. Over the same years: births 131k → 90k; internet 3.9% (1998); urban share 75.3% → 74.3%; GDP per person (PPP) 27,801 PPP dollars (1998).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":1.928,"end":1.156,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":130.9,"end":89.96},{"id":"internet_users","year":1998,"value":3.9},{"id":"urban_population","from":1988,"to":1998,"start":75.3103,"end":74.2547},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1998,"value":27801.4388}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.59 → 1.28; births 111k → 77.6k; internet 75.7% → 87.7%; urban share 73% → 72.9%; GDP per person (PPP) 42,067 PPP dollars → 49,292 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.589,"end":1.28,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":110.9,"end":77.636},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":75.6688,"end":87.6878},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":73.037,"end":72.8754},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":42066.576,"end":49292.4879}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.93); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.928,"r_changes":0.938,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 33 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.56); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":33,"r_levels":0.562,"r_changes":0.291,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.56); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.20).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.556,"r_changes":-0.198,"effective_pairs_changes":53,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.34); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.24).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.338,"r_changes":0.244,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (47,560 PPP dollars) typically have 1.45; here it is 1.46, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":47560,"yv":1.46,"expected":1.45,"pct":51,"lower":101,"higher":95,"z":0.03}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (47,970 PPP dollars) typically have 93.6%; here it is 87.7%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":47970,"yv":87.69,"expected":93.6,"pct":31,"lower":55,"higher":121,"z":-0.53}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; fertility below 2.1: 1959; urban majority: already in 1960; half the population online: 2007. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1959,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"internet50":{"year":2007,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −3.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.425,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":9.24},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.449,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":7.43},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.51,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":3.09},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.425,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":9.24},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.396,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":11.5},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.624,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":-4.15},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.653,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":-5.83},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.712,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":-9.08},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.602,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":-2.83},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.631,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":-4.56},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.682,"actual":1.5566,"gap_pct":-7.46},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.701,"actual":1.28,"gap_pct":-24.75}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-3.49,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (1.28) already around 2012: reality is 13 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.28,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"year_expected_by":null,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection expected this level (1.28) already around 2012: reality is 13 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.28,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2012,"year_expected_by":null,"years":13,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.57 (+22% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.62 (+26% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.12.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.28},"values":{"2050":1.566,"2100":1.616},"low_2100":1.116}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 6 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −19%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2019 expected 1.73 for 2024; the outcome was 1.36.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.67,"actual":1.36,"gap":-18.563,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.7076,"actual":1.36,"gap":-20.354,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.7303,"actual":1.36,"gap":-21.4,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.721,"actual":1.36,"gap":-20.975,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.54,"actual":1.36,"gap":-11.688,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.41,"actual":1.36,"gap":-3.546,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":6,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-19.459,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −3.9%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":70.856,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":34.95},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":75.756,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":26.23},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":79.121,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":20.86},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.408,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":21.96},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.658,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":21.57},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":99.276,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":-3.68},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":107.753,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":-11.26},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":108.95,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":-12.23},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":99.749,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":-4.14},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":101.113,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":-5.43},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":104.167,"actual":95.6236,"gap_pct":-8.2},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":96.896,"actual":77.636,"gap_pct":-19.88}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-3.91,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (77.6k) already around 2016: reality is 9 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":77.636,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2016,"year_expected_by":null,"years":9,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection did not expect today's level (77.6k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":77.636,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 77.6k, 11% below the UN 2024 medium variant (86.9k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"provisional","un_medium_births_k":86.93,"actual_births_k":77.636,"gap_pct":-10.7,"un_lower95_births_k":76.01,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Eurostat demo_gind (births); CZSO (TFR)","source_url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/demo_gind?format=JSON&lang=EN&indic_de=LBIRTH&sinceTimePeriod=2015&geo=CZ"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 89.1k (+15% vs 2025), 2100 — 69.9k (−10% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 27.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":77.636},"values":{"2050":89.06,"2100":69.91},"low_2100":27.71}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=CZE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}