{"locations":[{"code":"CYP","name":"Cyprus","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/cyprus/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.87 in 1950 → 1.39 in 2023 (−64%). Thresholds: below 2.1 since 1995, below 1.5 since 2007. The trend broke around 1968 and 1974: −0.01 → −0.14 → −0.03 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.871,"last":1.389,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1995,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2007,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1968,"slope_before":-0.0149,"slope_after":-0.14},{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.14,"slope_after":-0.0271}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 14.4k in 1950 → 14.5k in 2023 (+1%). Low: 11.1k in 1975; +31% since then. The trend broke around 1993 and 2000: +0.01k → −0.4k → +0.15k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":14.42,"last":14.52,"trough":{"year":1975,"value":11.06},"breaks":[{"year":1993,"slope_before":0.00512,"slope_after":-0.396},{"year":2000,"slope_before":-0.396,"slope_after":0.146}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.6% in 2024 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1999, above 50% since 2010. Fastest growth in 1997–2002: 4.4% → 28.3%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":89.601,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1999,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2010,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":1997,"to":2002,"start":4.38,"end":28.32}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 35.3% in 1960 → 66.7% in 2025 (+31 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1975. The trend broke around 1971 and 1983: +0.41 → +2.2 → +0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":35.3071,"last":66.695,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1975,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1971,"slope_before":0.406,"slope_after":2.22},{"year":1983,"slope_before":2.22,"slope_after":0.00718}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 27,667 PPP dollars in 1990 → 54,103 PPP dollars in 2025 (+96%). The trend broke around 2008 and 2014: +1,011 → −1,339 → +1,673 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":27666.5352,"last":54103.2617,"breaks":[{"year":2008,"slope_before":1010,"slope_after":-1340},{"year":2014,"slope_before":-1340,"slope_after":1670}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 3.47 → 2.11. Over the same years: births 15.5k → 11.1k; urban share 38.4% → 50.4%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":3.47,"end":2.107,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":15.45,"end":11.06},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":38.3631,"end":50.4137},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 1.30 → 1.39; births 13.1k → 14.5k; internet 65.5% → 91.2%; urban share 67.2% → 66.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 36,651 PPP dollars → 51,675 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":1.304,"end":1.389,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":13.05,"end":14.52},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":65.4548,"end":91.2211},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":67.2102,"end":66.6739},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":36650.5703,"end":51674.9023}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are noticeably related, in the same direction (r = 0.49); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.97). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.493,"r_changes":0.972,"effective_pairs_changes":36,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.07). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":-0.818,"r_changes":0.069,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.85); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.02). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.851,"r_changes":-0.017,"effective_pairs_changes":42,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.82); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.15). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.817,"r_changes":0.149,"effective_pairs_changes":33,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (51,670 PPP dollars) typically have 1.41; here it is 1.39, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":51670,"yv":1.389,"expected":1.41,"pct":48,"lower":94,"higher":102,"z":-0.05}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (52,860 PPP dollars) typically have 95.5%; here it is 89.6%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":52860,"yv":89.6,"expected":95.5,"pct":32,"lower":56,"higher":120,"z":-0.53}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: 1972; urban majority: 1975; fertility below 2.1: 1977; half the population online: 2010. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1972,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1975,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1977,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2010,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 10 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −16%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-29.79},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-29.79},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-27.89},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.637,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-18.51},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.682,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-20.69},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.595,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-16.36},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.444,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-7.62},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.466,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-9},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.42,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-6.06},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.337,"actual":1.334,"gap_pct":-0.22},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.311,"actual":1.389,"gap_pct":5.95}],"actual_lower":10,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-16.36,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2017 projection expected today's level (1.39, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2017","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.389,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.42 (+2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.51 (+9% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.01.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.389},"values":{"2050":1.423,"2100":1.512},"low_2100":1.012}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 2 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in 4; median gap +0.6%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2013 expected 1.47 for 2024; the outcome was 1.38.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.47,"actual":1.38,"gap":-6.122,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.3676,"actual":1.38,"gap":0.91,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.3567,"actual":1.38,"gap":1.718,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.3745,"actual":1.38,"gap":0.397,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.37,"actual":1.38,"gap":0.73,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.42,"actual":1.38,"gap":-2.817,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap":0.564,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 11; median gap +21%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.395,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":23.77},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.432,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":23.37},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.115,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":26.89},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.353,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":24.23},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.666,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":20.9},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":11.34,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":24.37},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.171,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":7.08},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.364,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":5.54},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.953,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":8.89},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.551,"actual":14.104,"gap_pct":12.37},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":12.348,"actual":14.52,"gap_pct":17.59}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":11,"median_gap_pct":20.9,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 12.4k (−15% vs 2023), 2100 — 9.91k (−32% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":14.52},"values":{"2050":12.36,"2100":9.913},"low_2100":3.996}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1974–1974 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 5,000 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Georgia, Japan, Romania, Greece, France and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −12%, 1–5 years after it −3%, 6–10 years after +39%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.35, 1–5 years after it −0.12, 6–10 years after +0.66.","data":{"episode":"CYP-1974","kind":"modern","from":1974,"to":1974,"battle_deaths":5000,"peers":["GEO","JPN","ROU","GRC","FRA","ITA","AUS","CZE","MNE","SGP"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-12.2,"own":-12.49,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-2.95,"own":-9.01,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":39.31,"own":19.02,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.351,"own":-0.372,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.116,"own":-0.23,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.659,"own":0.468,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-2.71,"own":-2.29,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.34,"own":-0.87,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":5.91,"own":4.67,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=CYP&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}