{"locations":[{"code":"COL","name":"Colombia","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/colombia/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 6.41 in 1950 → 1.0 in 2025 (−84%). Peak: 6.74 in 1959; the latest value is 85% lower. Thresholds: below 2.1 since 2009, below 1.5 since 2022. The trend broke around 1962 and 1979: +0.03 → −0.18 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":6.41,"last":1,"peak":{"year":1959,"value":6.737},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2009,"direction":"below"},{"threshold":1.5,"year":2022,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1962,"slope_before":0.0286,"slope_after":-0.182},{"year":1979,"slope_before":-0.182,"slope_after":-0.0543}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 546k in 1950 → 442k in 2025 (−19%). Peak: 913k in 1994; the latest value is 52% lower. The trend broke around 1960 and 2000: +17.8k → +4.68k → −15.7k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":546.4,"last":441.537,"peak":{"year":1994,"value":912.6},"breaks":[{"year":1960,"slope_before":17.8,"slope_after":4.68},{"year":2000,"slope_before":4.68,"slope_after":-15.7}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 79.3% in 2024 (+79 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2005, above 50% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 21.8% → 49%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":79.3454,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2005,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":21.8,"end":48.98}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 48.1% in 1960 → 78.8% in 2025 (+31 pp). Thresholds: above 50% since 1962, above 75% since 2002. The trend broke around 1974 and 2003: +0.98 → +0.48 → +0.12 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":48.142,"last":78.7828,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1962,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":75,"year":2002,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":0.975,"slope_after":0.48},{"year":2003,"slope_before":0.48,"slope_after":0.123}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 9,999 PPP dollars in 1990 → 18,779 PPP dollars in 2025 (+88%). The trend broke around 2003 and 2014: +64 → +457 → +210 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":9998.8107,"last":18778.6483,"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":64.2,"slope_after":457},{"year":2014,"slope_before":457,"slope_after":210}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1964–1974: 6.48 → 4.53. Over the same years: births 766k → 756k; urban share 52% → 61.5%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":6.475,"end":4.527,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":765.6,"end":756},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1964,"to":1974,"start":51.9659,"end":61.4612},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.77 → 1.0; births 694k → 442k; internet 55.9% → 79.3%; urban share 77.2% → 78.8%; GDP per person (PPP) 16,821 PPP dollars → 18,779 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.771,"end":1,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":693.5,"end":441.537},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":55.905,"end":79.3454},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":77.1636,"end":78.7828},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":16821.3801,"end":18778.6483}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.12); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.51). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":-0.12,"r_changes":0.509,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 32 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.97); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":32,"r_levels":-0.971,"r_changes":0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.99); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.42). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.99,"r_changes":-0.417,"effective_pairs_changes":13,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.96); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.963,"r_changes":0.294,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (18,410 PPP dollars) typically have 2.01; here it is 1.2, lower than in 96% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":18410,"yv":1.2,"expected":2.01,"pct":4,"lower":7,"higher":189,"z":-1.94}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (18,480 PPP dollars) typically have 75.2%; here it is 79.4%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":18480,"yv":79.35,"expected":75.2,"pct":63,"lower":112,"higher":64,"z":0.37}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1962; fertility below 3: 1990; fertility below 2.1: 2009; half the population online: 2013. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1962,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1990,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2009,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2013,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −38%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.21,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-41.63},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.21,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-41.63},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.21,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-41.63},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.123,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-39.24},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.94,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-33.51},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.102,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-38.63},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.044,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-36.89},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":2.06,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-37.38},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.743,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-25.99},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.742,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-25.95},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.727,"actual":1.29,"gap_pct":-25.3},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.677,"actual":1,"gap_pct":-40.37}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-38.01,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.0, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2012 projection did not expect today's level (1.0, 2025) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2012","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.58 (+58% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.60 (+60% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.10.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1},"values":{"2050":1.578,"2100":1.601},"low_2100":1.101}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 12 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −37%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":993.8,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-45.75},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":985.817,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-45.32},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":964.427,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-44.1},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":925.901,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-41.78},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":828.198,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-34.91},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":876.123,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-38.47},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":851.445,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-36.69},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":861.679,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-37.44},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":691.076,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-21.99},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":691.102,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-22},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":708.514,"actual":539.0917,"gap_pct":-23.91},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":692.906,"actual":441.537,"gap_pct":-36.28}],"actual_lower":12,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-37.06,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (442k, 2025) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":441.537,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (442k, 2025) only after 2050: reality is at least 26 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":441.537,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2051,"year_expected_by":2100,"years":26,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 442k, 36% below the UN 2024 medium variant (693k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":692.8,"actual_births_k":441.537,"gap_pct":-36.3,"un_lower95_births_k":534.8,"below_lower95":true,"source":"DANE, Boletin tecnico EEVV, cifras definitivas 2025 y ano corrido 2026pr (24 Sep 2026)","source_url":"https://www.dane.gov.co/files/operaciones/EEVV/2026/24-sep-2026/bol-EEVV-Isem2026pr.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 545k (+23% vs 2025), 2100 — 359k (−19% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 118k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":441.537},"values":{"2050":544.9,"2100":359},"low_2100":118.3}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1985–1985 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Jamaica, Costa Rica, Guyana, Brazil, Albania and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −2.6%, 1–5 years after it +1.2%, 6–10 years after +3%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.14, 1–5 years after it −0.08, 6–10 years after +0.06.","data":{"episode":"COL-1985","kind":"modern","from":1985,"to":1985,"battle_deaths":500,"peers":["JAM","CRI","GUY","BRA","ALB","KAZ","DOM","FJI","CHL","URY"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-2.6,"own":-2.88,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":1.15,"own":-3.28,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":2.95,"own":-2.65,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.136,"own":-0.025,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.081,"own":0.145,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.059,"own":0.599,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.01,"own":-0.79,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.31,"own":-0.6,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":0.02,"own":0.19,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1992–2005 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 20 thousand battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Jamaica, Argentina, Costa Rica, Brazil, Guyana and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war +5.3%; fertility (children per woman) during the war +0.39. The war lasted more than 10 years: its first 10 years are compared, the years after it are not (the pre-war trend is too old).","data":{"episode":"COL-1992","kind":"modern","from":1992,"to":2005,"battle_deaths":20499,"peers":["JAM","ARG","CRI","BRA","GUY","ALB","DOM","CHL","URY","KAZ"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":5.28,"own":-1.5,"years":10}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":0.387,"own":0.277,"years":10}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":1.31,"own":0.32,"years":10}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=COL&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}