{"locations":[{"code":"BHR","name":"Bahrain","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/bahrain/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 7.29 in 1950 → 1.82 in 2023 (−75%). Threshold: below 2.1 since 2016. The trend broke around 1963 and 1996: −0.01 → −0.13 → −0.05 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":7.29,"last":1.823,"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2016,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":-0.00681,"slope_after":-0.13},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.13,"slope_after":-0.0459}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 5.77k in 1950 → 19.6k in 2023 (×3.4). The trend broke around 2000 and 2015: +0.17k → +0.44k → −0.19k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.766,"last":19.56,"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":0.167,"slope_after":0.441},{"year":2015,"slope_before":0.441,"slope_after":-0.193}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 100% in 2024 (+100 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2001, above 50% since 2008, above 90% since 2013. Fastest growth in 2007–2012: 32.9% → 88%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":100,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2001,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2008,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2013,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2007,"to":2012,"start":32.91,"end":88}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 82.3% in 1960 → 100% in 2025 (+18 pp). Low: 78.1% in 1971; +22 pp since then. The trend broke around 1974 and 2017: −0.4 → +0.52 → −0.01 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":82.2948,"last":100,"trough":{"year":1971,"value":78.1319},"breaks":[{"year":1974,"slope_before":-0.399,"slope_after":0.521},{"year":2017,"slope_before":0.521,"slope_after":-0.00898}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 41,857 PPP dollars in 1990 → 60,670 PPP dollars in 2025 (+45%). The trend broke around 1998 and 2009: +1,472 → −545 → +444 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":41856.5445,"last":60669.6308,"breaks":[{"year":1998,"slope_before":1470,"slope_after":-545},{"year":2009,"slope_before":-545,"slope_after":444}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1971–1981: 6.28 → 4.60. Over the same years: births 8.2k → 10.4k; urban share 78.1% → 80.8%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":6.284,"end":4.602,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":8.201,"end":10.41},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1971,"to":1981,"start":78.1319,"end":80.8267},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.17 → 1.82; births 19.6k → 19.6k; internet 90% → 100%; urban share 100% → 100%; GDP per person (PPP) 55,376 PPP dollars → 57,820 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.166,"end":1.823,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":19.59,"end":19.56},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":90,"end":100},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":100,"end":100},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":55376.4005,"end":57819.9052}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.94); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.39).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.937,"r_changes":0.391,"effective_pairs_changes":32,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 30 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.90); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":30,"r_levels":-0.897,"r_changes":0.003,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.87); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.24). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.865,"r_changes":-0.244,"effective_pairs_changes":17,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.48); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.00).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.484,"r_changes":-0.001,"effective_pairs_changes":29,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (57,820 PPP dollars) typically have 1.35; here it is 1.82, higher than in 87% of countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":57820,"yv":1.823,"expected":1.35,"pct":86,"lower":170,"higher":26,"z":1.12}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (59,060 PPP dollars) typically have 97.7%; here it is 100%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":59060,"yv":100,"expected":97.7,"pct":56,"lower":100,"higher":76,"z":0.21}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 3: 1996; half the population online: 2008; fertility below 2.1: 2009. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr3":{"year":1996,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2008,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2009,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 4; median gap −1.3%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":-6.99},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":-6.99},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.996,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":-2.14},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.927,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":1.36},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.951,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":0.12},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.951,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":0.12},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.268,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":-13.88},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.976,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":-1.15},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.979,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":-1.3},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.998,"actual":1.9533,"gap_pct":-2.24},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.785,"actual":1.823,"gap_pct":2.13}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":4,"median_gap_pct":-1.3,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected today's level (1.82, 2023) only after 2035: reality is at least 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.823,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":12,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (1.82, 2023) only by 2025–2030: reality is at least 2 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.823,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2025,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":2,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.66 (−9% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.63 (−11% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.13.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.823},"values":{"2050":1.664,"2100":1.629},"low_2100":1.129}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 2 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 9; median gap +45%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.355,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":65.12},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.409,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":64.4},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":14.049,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":45.21},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.267,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":66.3},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":12.494,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":63.28},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":13.922,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":46.53},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":21.321,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":-4.32},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.884,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":8.03},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":18.722,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":8.96},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":21.846,"actual":20.4,"gap_pct":-6.62},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":16.644,"actual":19.56,"gap_pct":17.52}],"actual_lower":2,"actual_higher":9,"median_gap_pct":45.21,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 24.1k (+23% vs 2023), 2100 — 34.6k (+77% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 17.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":19.56},"values":{"2050":24.07,"2100":34.61},"low_2100":17.38}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=BHR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}