{"locations":[{"code":"BGR","name":"Bulgaria","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/bulgaria/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.48 in 1950 → 1.63 in 2025 (−34%). Low: 1.11 in 1997; +46% since then. Threshold: below 2.1 since 1980. The trend broke around 1988 and 1996: −0.01 → −0.1 → +0.02 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.482,"last":1.63,"trough":{"year":1997,"value":1.113},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":1980,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":-0.0109,"slope_after":-0.0992},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-0.0992,"slope_after":0.0194}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 156k in 1950 → 50.2k in 2025 (−68%). The trend broke around 1986 and 1995: −0.66k → −5.61k → −0.53k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":156,"last":50.241,"breaks":[{"year":1986,"slope_before":-0.66,"slope_after":-5.61},{"year":1995,"slope_before":-5.61,"slope_after":-0.525}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 82.4% in 2024 (+82 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2003, above 50% since 2012. Fastest growth in 2003–2008: 12% → 39.7%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":82.439,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2003,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2012,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2003,"to":2008,"start":12.04,"end":39.67}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 37.1% in 1960 → 74.2% in 2025 (+37 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1969. The trend broke around 1972 and 1984: +1.6 → +0.82 → +0.23 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":37.1103,"last":74.1728,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1969,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1972,"slope_before":1.57,"slope_after":0.815},{"year":1984,"slope_before":0.815,"slope_after":0.231}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 14,954 PPP dollars in 1990 → 35,326 PPP dollars in 2025 (+136%). Low: 11,954 PPP dollars in 1999; ×3 since then. The trend broke around 1999: direction reversed (−171 → +794 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":14954.1347,"last":35325.5318,"trough":{"year":1999,"value":11953.5984},"breaks":[{"year":1999,"slope_before":-171,"slope_after":794}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1987–1997: 1.96 → 1.11. Over the same years: births 117k → 63.8k; internet 1.2% (1997); urban share 66% → 67.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 12,419 PPP dollars (1997).","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":1.961,"end":1.113,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":116.6,"end":63.82},{"id":"internet_users","year":1997,"value":1.22},{"id":"urban_population","from":1987,"to":1997,"start":66.0016,"end":67.6594},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","year":1997,"value":12419.3798}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.53 → 1.63; births 65.9k → 50.2k; internet 56.7% → 82.4%; urban share 73.1% → 74.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 24,563 PPP dollars → 35,326 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.528,"end":1.63,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":65.9,"end":50.241},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2024,"start":56.6563,"end":82.439},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":73.1031,"end":74.1728},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":24562.6489,"end":35325.5318}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.92); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.92). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.922,"r_changes":0.916,"effective_pairs_changes":50,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2024, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.76); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.53). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"years":33,"r_levels":0.758,"r_changes":0.529,"effective_pairs_changes":26,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.09). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.736,"r_changes":0.091,"effective_pairs_changes":47,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.71); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.29). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":0.713,"r_changes":0.292,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (33,070 PPP dollars) typically have 1.64; here it is 1.81, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":33070,"yv":1.81,"expected":1.64,"pct":66,"lower":130,"higher":66,"z":0.37}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (34,220 PPP dollars) typically have 87.1%; here it is 82.4%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":34220,"yv":82.44,"expected":87.1,"pct":35,"lower":62,"higher":114,"z":-0.42}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; fertility below 2.1: 1965; urban majority: 1969; half the population online: 2012. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1965,"censored":false},"urban50":{"year":1969,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2012,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 0 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 12; median gap +5.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.475,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":14.94},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.429,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":18.64},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.54,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":10.08},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.405,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":20.66},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.435,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":18.14},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.599,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":6.02},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.686,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":0.55},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.674,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":1.27},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.659,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":2.19},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.642,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":3.25},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.612,"actual":1.6953,"gap_pct":5.17},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.601,"actual":1.63,"gap_pct":1.81}],"actual_lower":0,"actual_higher":12,"median_gap_pct":5.59,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (1.63, 2025) only after 2035: reality is at least 10 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.63,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":10,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2010 projection expected this level (1.63) already around 2018: reality is 7 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp2010","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":1.63,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2018,"year_expected_by":null,"years":7,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.70 (+4% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.68 (+3% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.18.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.63},"values":{"2050":1.699,"2100":1.682},"low_2100":1.182}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 1 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in 5; median gap +5.9%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2023 expected 1.57 for 2024; the outcome was 1.72.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.63,"actual":1.72,"gap":5.521,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.6558,"actual":1.72,"gap":3.88,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.6183,"actual":1.72,"gap":6.283,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.5743,"actual":1.72,"gap":9.257,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.6,"actual":1.72,"gap":7.5,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.83,"actual":1.72,"gap":-6.011,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":1,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap":5.902,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 7 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 5; median gap −4.5%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":54.073,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":3.73},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":48.581,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":15.45},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":55.301,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":1.42},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":50.463,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":11.15},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":50.354,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":11.39},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.462,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":-4.06},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.582,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":-8.92},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.06,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":-5.03},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.476,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":-8.76},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":61.279,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":-8.47},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":58.995,"actual":56.0879,"gap_pct":-4.93},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":53.514,"actual":50.241,"gap_pct":-6.12}],"actual_lower":7,"actual_higher":5,"median_gap_pct":-4.49,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected today's level (50.2k, 2025) only after 2035: reality is at least 10 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":50.241,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":10,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (50.2k, 2025) only by 2030: reality is at least 5 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":50.241,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2030,"year_expected_by":2030,"years":5,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 50.2k, 17% below the UN 2024 medium variant (60.4k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":60.38,"actual_births_k":50.241,"gap_pct":-16.8,"un_lower95_births_k":54.13,"below_lower95":true,"source":"NSI, Population and demographic processes in 2025","source_url":"https://www.nsi.bg/file/35318/naselenie_i_demografski_procesi.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 47.8k (−5% vs 2025), 2100 — 28.9k (−42% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 9.23k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":50.241},"values":{"2050":47.77,"2100":28.93},"low_2100":9.233}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=BGR&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}