{"locations":[{"code":"AZE","name":"Azerbaijan","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/azerbaijan/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 5.08 in 1950 → 1.67 in 2023 (−67%). Peak: 5.96 in 1962; the latest value is 72% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2015. The trend broke around 1961 and 1998: +0.09 → −0.11 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":5.075,"last":1.671,"peak":{"year":1962,"value":5.961},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2015,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1961,"slope_before":0.0852,"slope_after":-0.111},{"year":1998,"slope_before":-0.111,"slope_after":0.00257}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 118k in 1950 → 125k in 2023 (+6%). Peak: 214k in 1988; the latest value is 41% lower. The trend broke around 1990 and 1996: +1.44k → −11.1k → +0.91k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":117.6,"last":125.1,"peak":{"year":1988,"value":213.6},"breaks":[{"year":1990,"slope_before":1.44,"slope_after":-11.1},{"year":1996,"slope_before":-11.1,"slope_after":0.911}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 90.8% in 2025 (+91 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2006, above 50% since 2011, above 90% since 2024. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 17.1% → 73%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0,"last":90.8,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2006,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2024,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2008,"to":2013,"start":17.08,"end":73}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 48.1% in 1960 → 58.6% in 2025 (+11 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1970. The trend broke around 1988 and 2001: +0.2 → −0.27 → +0.35 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":48.096,"last":58.6371,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1970,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1988,"slope_before":0.199,"slope_after":-0.268},{"year":2001,"slope_before":-0.268,"slope_after":0.353}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 10,776 PPP dollars in 1990 → 22,314 PPP dollars in 2025 (+107%). Low: 4,212 PPP dollars in 1995; ×5.3 since then. The trend broke around 2000 and 2009: −615 → +1,779 → +148 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":10776.0677,"last":22314.2169,"trough":{"year":1995,"value":4211.7211},"breaks":[{"year":2000,"slope_before":-615,"slope_after":1780},{"year":2009,"slope_before":1780,"slope_after":148}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1965–1975: 5.79 → 4.22. Over the same years: births 195k → 158k; urban share 49.6% → 52%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":5.792,"end":4.215,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":194.9,"end":158.4},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1965,"to":1975,"start":49.6463,"end":51.9819},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2013–2023): fertility (TFR) 2.15 → 1.67; births 192k → 125k; internet 73% → 89%; urban share 54.2% → 58.5%; GDP per person (PPP) 20,399 PPP dollars → 21,311 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.147,"end":1.671,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":191.8,"end":125.1},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":73,"end":89},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":54.1821,"end":58.5075},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":20398.6462,"end":21310.7387}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = 0.28); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.82). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":0.282,"r_changes":0.819,"effective_pairs_changes":22,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 29 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.18); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.42).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":29,"r_levels":-0.179,"r_changes":0.418,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.68); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.27).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.68,"r_changes":0.267,"effective_pairs_changes":38,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.18); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.25).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.181,"r_changes":0.252,"effective_pairs_changes":20,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (21,310 PPP dollars) typically have 1.91; here it is 1.67, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":21310,"yv":1.671,"expected":1.91,"pct":32,"lower":64,"higher":132,"z":-0.5}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (22,090 PPP dollars) typically have 78.6%; here it is 90.4%, higher than in 88% of countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":22090,"yv":90.44,"expected":78.6,"pct":88,"lower":155,"higher":21,"z":1.06}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: 1968; fertility below 3: 1990; fertility below 2.1: 1996; half the population online: 2011. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1968,"censored":false},"tfr3":{"year":1990,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":1996,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2011,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 6; median gap +1.2%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.9,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":1.8},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.507,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":28.35},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.96,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":-1.32},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":4.55},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.85,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":4.55},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.033,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":-4.86},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.142,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":-9.7},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":1.858,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":4.1},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.222,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":-12.95},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.036,"actual":1.9342,"gap_pct":-5},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.652,"actual":1.671,"gap_pct":1.15}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":6,"median_gap_pct":1.15,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection did not expect today's level (1.67, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.671,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.67, 2023) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.671,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.63 (−2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.62 (−3% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.12.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.671},"values":{"2050":1.633,"2100":1.617},"low_2100":1.117}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 3 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 8; median gap +3.8%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":135.462,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":20.46},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":112.529,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":45.01},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":161.092,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":1.3},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":146.646,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":11.27},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":146.203,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":11.61},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":160.804,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":1.48},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":171.321,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":-4.75},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":154.437,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":5.66},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":180.183,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":-9.44},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":164.897,"actual":163.18,"gap_pct":-1.04},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":120.485,"actual":125.1,"gap_pct":3.83}],"actual_lower":3,"actual_higher":8,"median_gap_pct":3.83,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (125k) already around 2022: reality is 1 year behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":125.1,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2022,"year_expected_by":null,"years":1,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection expected today's level (125k, 2023) only after 2035: reality is at least 12 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":125.1,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2035,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":12,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 116k (−7% vs 2023), 2100 — 91.3k (−27% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 35.7k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":125.1},"values":{"2050":115.8,"2100":91.26},"low_2100":35.66}}]},{"id":"wars","title":"Wars and births","items":[{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 1992–1994 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 4,765 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Albania, Kazakhstan, Jamaica, Armenia, Argentina and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −17%, 1–5 years after it −34%, 6–10 years after −33%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.15, 1–5 years after it −0.65, 6–10 years after −0.62.","data":{"episode":"AZE-1992","kind":"modern","from":1992,"to":1994,"battle_deaths":4765,"peers":["ALB","KAZ","JAM","ARM","ARG","CRI","MYS","BRA","GUY","PRK"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-16.59,"own":-16.54,"years":3},"p1_5":{"gap":-34.37,"own":-37.9,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-33.45,"own":-44.1,"years":5}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.147,"own":-0.129,"years":3},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.649,"own":-0.666,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-0.624,"own":-0.685,"years":5}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-4.69,"own":-4.53,"years":3},"p1_5":{"gap":-9.5,"own":-10.33,"years":5},"p6_10":{"gap":-9.06,"own":-11.27,"years":5}}}}},{"kind":"war_births","indicators":["births","tfr"],"source":"wars","text":"War of 2020–2020 on the country's territory (UCDP/PRIO; about 7,528 battle deaths). Against peace-time countries whose fertility was close the year before the war (Bahrain, North Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, Qatar and 5 more), net of each country's pre-war trend: births during the war −5.1%, 1–5 years after it −8.6%; fertility (children per woman) during the war −0.14, 1–5 years after it −0.17.","data":{"episode":"AZE-2020","kind":"modern","from":2020,"to":2020,"battle_deaths":7528,"peers":["BHR","PRK","MYS","VNM","QAT","GEO","LKA","MDV","NPL","KWT"],"results":{"births":{"war":{"gap":-5.07,"own":-10.89,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-8.62,"own":-16.47,"years":3}},"tfr":{"war":{"gap":-0.143,"own":-0.168,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-0.174,"own":-0.212,"years":3}},"cbr":{"war":{"gap":-1.16,"own":-1.52,"years":1},"p1_5":{"gap":-1.64,"own":-1.97,"years":3}}}}},{"kind":"war_births_all","indicators":["births"],"source":"wars","text":"All wars together: of 101 wars on countries' territory since 1955, births 1–5 years after the end were above comparable peace-time countries in 42% of cases (median −1.6%). No significant post-war rise shows up.","data":{"episodes":101,"median_gap_pct":-1.56,"share_above":0.416,"sign_test_p":0.1109}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=AZE&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}