{"locations":[{"code":"AUT","name":"Austria","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/austria/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 2.09 in 1950 → 1.30 in 2025 (−38%). Peak: 2.82 in 1963; the latest value is 54% lower. Threshold: below 1.5 since 2018. The trend broke around 1963 and 1978: +0.07 → −0.09 → 0 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":2.089,"last":1.3,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":2.817},"thresholds":[{"threshold":1.5,"year":2018,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1963,"slope_before":0.0743,"slope_after":-0.0922},{"year":1978,"slope_before":-0.0922,"slope_after":-0.00365}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 108k in 1950 → 76.1k in 2025 (−29%). Peak: 135k in 1963; the latest value is 44% lower. The trend broke around 1964 and 1976: +2.69k → −3.9k → −0.24k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"first":107.5,"last":76.067,"peak":{"year":1963,"value":134.8},"breaks":[{"year":1964,"slope_before":2.69,"slope_after":-3.9},{"year":1976,"slope_before":-3.9,"slope_after":-0.239}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0.1% in 1990 → 91.9% in 2025 (+92 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 1998, above 50% since 2004, above 90% since 2021. Fastest growth in 2002–2007: 36.6% → 69.4%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":0.13,"last":91.9257,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":1998,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2004,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":90,"year":2021,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2002,"to":2007,"start":36.56,"end":69.37}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 49.9% in 1960 → 69.7% in 2025 (+20 pp). Threshold: above 50% since 1961. The trend broke around 1980 and 1991: +0.22 → +1 → +0.11 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":49.9006,"last":69.7152,"thresholds":[{"threshold":50,"year":1961,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1980,"slope_before":0.224,"slope_after":1.02},{"year":1991,"slope_before":1.02,"slope_after":0.114}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 43,258 PPP dollars in 1990 → 63,970 PPP dollars in 2025 (+48%). The trend broke around 2007: change slowed down (+1,009 → +281 a year).","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":43258.1144,"last":63970.4009,"breaks":[{"year":2007,"slope_before":1010,"slope_after":281}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 1967–1977: 2.63 → 1.62. Over the same years: births 128k → 85k; urban share 51% → 53.5%; no data for the others in those years.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":2.629,"end":1.623,"others":[{"id":"births","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":127.7,"end":85.01},{"id":"internet_users","data":null},{"id":"urban_population","from":1967,"to":1977,"start":51.0003,"end":53.5194},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","data":null}]}},{"kind":"last_decade","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Over the last 10 years (2015–2025): fertility (TFR) 1.49 → 1.30; births 83.6k → 76.1k; internet 83.9% → 91.9%; urban share 67.6% → 69.7%; GDP per person (PPP) 60,952 PPP dollars → 63,970 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":1.492,"end":1.3,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":83.58,"end":76.067},{"id":"internet_users","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":83.9401,"end":91.9257},{"id":"urban_population","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":67.5576,"end":69.7152},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2015,"to":2025,"start":60951.6037,"end":63970.4009}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2025, 76 years): levels are strongly related, in the same direction (r = 0.98); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.94). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2025,"years":76,"r_levels":0.975,"r_changes":0.94,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.15); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.04).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.146,"r_changes":0.045,"effective_pairs_changes":34,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2025, 66 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.84); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.01). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"years":66,"r_levels":-0.835,"r_changes":-0.006,"effective_pairs_changes":25,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2025, 36 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.22); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.08).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"years":36,"r_levels":-0.222,"r_changes":0.077,"effective_pairs_changes":35,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (64,540 PPP dollars) typically have 1.30; here it is 1.32, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":64540,"yv":1.32,"expected":1.3,"pct":53,"lower":105,"higher":91,"z":0.05}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (63,790 PPP dollars) typically have 99.2%; here it is 94.9%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":63790,"yv":94.92,"expected":99.2,"pct":36,"lower":64,"higher":112,"z":-0.38}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: fertility below 3: already in 1950; fertility below 2.1: already in 1950; urban majority: 1961; half the population online: 2004. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"tfr3":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"tfr21":{"year":1950,"censored":true},"urban50":{"year":1961,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2004,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 1; median gap −12%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.65,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-16.62},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.352,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":1.75},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.45,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-5.12},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.58,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-12.93},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.545,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-10.96},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.505,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-8.59},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.433,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-4},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.574,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-12.6},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.578,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-12.82},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.561,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-11.87},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":1.571,"actual":1.3757,"gap_pct":-12.43},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":1.491,"actual":1.3,"gap_pct":-12.81}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":1,"median_gap_pct":-12.15,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.43 (+10% vs 2025), 2100 — 1.52 (+17% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 1.02.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":1.3},"values":{"2050":1.431,"2100":1.519},"low_2100":1.019}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"europop","text":"Fertility (TFR): Eurostat projections (EUROPOP). For the latest year with data the outcome was below the projection in 5 of 6 editions (2013–2025) and above in none; median gap −9.9%. The biggest miss: EUROPOP2015 expected 1.51 for 2024; the outcome was 1.31.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"europop2013","year":2024,"expected":1.5,"actual":1.31,"gap":-12.667,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2015","year":2024,"expected":1.5052,"actual":1.31,"gap":-12.967,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2019","year":2024,"expected":1.465,"actual":1.31,"gap":-10.58,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop2023","year":2024,"expected":1.4444,"actual":1.31,"gap":-9.306,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2024","year":2024,"expected":1.41,"actual":1.31,"gap":-7.092,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"},{"release":"europop_stp2025","year":2024,"expected":1.31,"actual":1.31,"gap":0,"unit":"pct","actual_source":"demo_find"}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap":-9.943,"unit":"pct","gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent","facts":"Eurostat (demo_find, demo_gind, demo_mlexpec; net migration: immigrants minus emigrants where published)"}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 5 of 12 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 7; median gap +2.1%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":75.345,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":6.72},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":59.527,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":35.08},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":67.948,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":18.34},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":74.318,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":8.19},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.938,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":1.86},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":78.533,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":2.39},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":74.758,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":7.56},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":86.051,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":-6.56},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":84.818,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":-5.2},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":85.62,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":-6.09},{"release":"wpp2019","year":2020,"period":5,"expected":90.049,"actual":80.4083,"gap_pct":-10.71},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2025,"period":1,"expected":83.176,"actual":76.067,"gap_pct":-8.55}],"actual_lower":5,"actual_higher":7,"median_gap_pct":2.13,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 1998 projection expected this level (76.1k) already around 2020: reality is 5 years behind it.","data":{"release":"wpp1998","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":76.067,"verdict":"reality_behind_projection","year_expected":2020,"year_expected_by":null,"years":5,"projection_end":null}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2022 projection expected today's level (76.1k, 2025) only after 2030: reality is at least 6 years ahead of it.","data":{"release":"wpp2022","latest_year":2025,"latest_value":76.067,"verdict":"reality_ahead_of_projection","year_expected":2031,"year_expected_by":2050,"years":6,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2025: 76.1k, 1% above the UN 2024 medium variant (75.4k).","data":{"year":2025,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":75.38,"actual_births_k":76.067,"gap_pct":0.9,"un_lower95_births_k":65.2,"below_lower95":false,"source":"Statistik Austria press release, 29 Jun 2026","source_url":"https://www.statistik.at/fileadmin/announcement/2026/06/20260629Demographie.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 69.9k (−8% vs 2025), 2100 — 58.2k (−24% vs 2025); low variant for 2100: 23.4k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2025,"value":76.067},"values":{"2050":69.94,"2100":58.17},"low_2100":23.39}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=AUT&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}