{"locations":[{"code":"ARG","name":"Argentina","page":"https://macroscope.is/en/country/argentina/"}],"indicators":[{"id":"tfr","title":"Total fertility rate","unit":"children per woman"},{"id":"births","title":"Births","unit":"thousand births per year"},{"id":"internet_users","title":"Internet users","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"urban_population","title":"Urban population","unit":"% of population"},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","title":"GDP per capita, PPP","unit":"constant 2021 international $"}],"from_year":1950,"to_year":2100,"sections":[{"id":"dyn","title":"How the indicators changed","items":[{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["tfr"],"text":"Fertility (TFR): 3.16 in 1950 → 1.50 in 2023 (−53%). Peak: 3.36 in 1977; the latest value is 55% lower. Threshold: below 2.1 since 2018. The trend broke around 1981 and 2017: 0 → −0.03 → −0.13 a year.","data":{"indicator":"tfr","from":1950,"to":2023,"first":3.164,"last":1.5,"peak":{"year":1977,"value":3.359},"thresholds":[{"threshold":2.1,"year":2018,"direction":"below"}],"breaks":[{"year":1981,"slope_before":0.0049,"slope_after":-0.0298},{"year":2017,"slope_before":-0.0298,"slope_after":-0.131}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["births"],"text":"Births: 443k in 1950 → 413k in 2024 (−7%). Peak: 775k in 2014; the latest value is 47% lower. The trend broke around 1984 and 2016: +8.4k → +1.62k → −43.3k a year.","data":{"indicator":"births","from":1950,"to":2024,"first":443.1,"last":413.135,"peak":{"year":2014,"value":775.3},"breaks":[{"year":1984,"slope_before":8.4,"slope_after":1.62},{"year":2016,"slope_before":1.62,"slope_after":-43.3}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["internet_users"],"text":"Internet: 0% in 1990 → 89.7% in 2024 (+90 pp). Thresholds: above 10% since 2002, above 50% since 2011. Fastest growth in 2008–2013: 28.1% → 59.9%.","data":{"indicator":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2024,"first":0,"last":89.6672,"thresholds":[{"threshold":10,"year":2002,"direction":"above"},{"threshold":50,"year":2011,"direction":"above"}],"fastest_growth":{"from":2008,"to":2013,"start":28.1126,"end":59.9}}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["urban_population"],"text":"Urban share: 71.7% in 1960 → 92.4% in 2025 (+21 pp). Threshold: above 75% since 1965. The trend broke around 1970 and 1994: +0.72 → +0.39 → +0.14 a year.","data":{"indicator":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2025,"first":71.7239,"last":92.3519,"thresholds":[{"threshold":75,"year":1965,"direction":"above"}],"breaks":[{"year":1970,"slope_before":0.722,"slope_after":0.393},{"year":1994,"slope_before":0.393,"slope_after":0.14}]}},{"kind":"dynamics","indicators":["gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"GDP per person (PPP): 17,007 PPP dollars in 1990 → 27,847 PPP dollars in 2025 (+64%). The trend broke around 2003 and 2011: +171 → +884 → −191 a year.","data":{"indicator":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2025,"first":17007.2844,"last":27846.5985,"breaks":[{"year":2003,"slope_before":171,"slope_after":884},{"year":2011,"slope_before":884,"slope_after":-191}]}}]},{"id":"together","title":"What changed at the same time","items":[{"kind":"episode","indicators":["tfr","births","internet_users","urban_population","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"The fastest decline of \"Fertility (TFR)\" was in 2013–2023: 2.34 → 1.50. Over the same years: births 753k → 461k; internet 59.9% → 89.2%; urban share 91.3% → 92.2%; GDP per person (PPP) 29,228 PPP dollars → 27,230 PPP dollars.","data":{"focus":"tfr","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":2.335,"end":1.5,"others":[{"id":"births","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":753,"end":460.902},{"id":"internet_users","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":59.9,"end":89.229},{"id":"urban_population","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":91.3015,"end":92.1945},{"id":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":2013,"to":2023,"start":29227.6602,"end":27230.3968}]}}]},{"id":"links","title":"How the indicators relate","items":[{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","births"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and births (1950–2023, 74 years): levels are barely related (r = −0.20); year-to-year changes are related too (r = 0.90). Changes line up from year to year too, which is more than a shared trend.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"births","from":1950,"to":2023,"years":74,"r_levels":-0.197,"r_changes":0.897,"effective_pairs_changes":37,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","internet_users"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and internet (1990–2023, 33 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.89); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = 0.13). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"internet_users","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":33,"r_levels":-0.889,"r_changes":0.132,"effective_pairs_changes":23,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","urban_population"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and urban share (1960–2023, 64 years): levels are strongly related, in opposite directions (r = −0.74); year-to-year changes show no reliable link (r = −0.24). This looks like a shared trend: both change over time, but not in step from year to year.","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"urban_population","from":1960,"to":2023,"years":64,"r_levels":-0.736,"r_changes":-0.238,"effective_pairs_changes":21,"changes_significant":false,"lag":null}},{"kind":"relationship","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR) and GDP per person (PPP) (1990–2023, 34 years): levels are noticeably related, in opposite directions (r = −0.63); year-to-year changes are weakly related (r = 0.39).","data":{"a":"tfr","b":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","from":1990,"to":2023,"years":34,"r_levels":-0.626,"r_changes":0.39,"effective_pairs_changes":31,"changes_significant":true,"lag":null}}]},{"id":"context","title":"Against other countries","items":[{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["tfr","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Fertility (TFR), adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (27,230 PPP dollars) typically have 1.75; here it is 1.50, about the same as most countries at this income (2023, 197 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"tfr","year":2023,"n":197,"xv":27230,"yv":1.5,"expected":1.75,"pct":26,"lower":52,"higher":144,"z":-0.59}},{"kind":"cross_position","indicators":["internet_users","gdp_per_capita_ppp"],"text":"Internet, adjusted for income: countries with the same GDP per person (26,770 PPP dollars) typically have 82.4%; here it is 89.7%, about the same as most countries at this income (2024, 177 countries).","data":{"x":"gdp_per_capita_ppp","y":"internet_users","year":2024,"n":177,"xv":26770,"yv":89.67,"expected":82.4,"pct":74,"lower":131,"higher":45,"z":0.65}},{"kind":"event_order","indicators":["tfr","urban_population","internet_users"],"text":"Order of events: urban majority: already in 1960; fertility below 3: 1966; half the population online: 2011; fertility below 2.1: 2018. Fertility fell below 3 after the urban share passed 50% in 69% of 111 countries where the order is known; median gap 9 years. Fertility fell below 2.1 before half the population went online in 88% of 112 countries where the order is known.","data":{"events":{"urban50":{"year":1960,"censored":true},"tfr3":{"year":1966,"censored":false},"internet50":{"year":2011,"censored":false},"tfr21":{"year":2018,"censored":false}},"orders":[{"a":"urban50","b":"tfr3","n":111,"a_first":77,"b_first":31,"same":3,"median_lag":9,"observed":65},{"a":"internet50","b":"tfr21","n":112,"a_first":12,"b_first":98,"same":2,"median_lag":-20,"observed":109}]}}]},{"id":"fc","title":"Forecasts vs actual","items":[{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 11 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in none; median gap −1.6%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-1.6},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-1.6},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.1,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-1.6},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.078,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-0.55},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.078,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-0.55},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.078,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-0.55},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.096,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-1.41},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.119,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-2.48},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.269,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-8.92},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":2.268,"actual":2.0665,"gap_pct":-8.88},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2023,"period":1,"expected":1.862,"actual":1.5,"gap_pct":-19.44}],"actual_lower":11,"actual_higher":0,"median_gap_pct":-1.6,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2002 projection did not expect today's level (1.50, 2023) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2002","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.5,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2019 projection did not expect today's level (1.50, 2023) before its horizon ended (2100).","data":{"release":"wpp2019","latest_year":2023,"latest_value":1.5,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2100}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["tfr"],"source":"wpp","text":"Fertility (TFR): UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 1.54 (+2% vs 2023), 2100 — 1.58 (+5% vs 2023); low variant for 2100: 1.08.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2023,"value":1.5},"values":{"2050":1.537,"2100":1.578},"low_2100":1.078}},{"kind":"forecast_errors","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: past UN projections. The outcome was below the projection in 9 of 11 revisions (1998–2022) and above in 2; median gap −2.7%.","data":{"releases":[{"release":"wpp1998","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":704.195,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":-3.07},{"release":"wpp2000","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":704.195,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":-3.07},{"release":"wpp2002","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":701.153,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":-2.65},{"release":"wpp2004","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":686.854,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":-0.62},{"release":"wpp2006","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":686.854,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":-0.62},{"release":"wpp2008","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":679.426,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":0.47},{"release":"wpp2010","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":679.235,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":0.5},{"release":"wpp2012","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":686.005,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":-0.5},{"release":"wpp2015","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":749.501,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":-8.93},{"release":"wpp2017","year":2015,"period":5,"expected":749.92,"actual":682.6,"gap_pct":-8.98},{"release":"wpp2022","year":2024,"period":1,"expected":623.547,"actual":413.135,"gap_pct":-33.74}],"actual_lower":9,"actual_higher":2,"median_gap_pct":-2.65,"gap":"actual / expected − 1, percent; the latest checked period of each revision"}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2004 projection did not expect today's level (413k, 2024) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2004","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":413.135,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"forecast_hit","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"The UN 2008 projection did not expect today's level (413k, 2024) before its horizon ended (2050).","data":{"release":"wpp2008","latest_year":2024,"latest_value":413.135,"verdict":"level_not_expected_within_projection","year_expected":null,"year_expected_by":null,"projection_end":2050}},{"kind":"un2024_vs_actual","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"National statistics for 2024: 413k, 18% below the UN 2024 medium variant (507k) and below its 95% interval.","data":{"year":2024,"status":"final","un_medium_births_k":506.6,"actual_births_k":413.135,"gap_pct":-18.4,"un_lower95_births_k":446,"below_lower95":true,"source":"DEIS Estadisticas Vitales 2024 (Serie 5 No 68)","source_url":"https://www.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/serie_5_nro_68_anuario_vitales_v4_revisada_ok.pdf"}},{"kind":"outlook","indicators":["births"],"source":"wpp","text":"Births: UN 2024 projection (medium): 2050 — 457k (+11% vs 2024), 2100 — 291k (−30% vs 2024); low variant for 2100: 95.6k.","data":{"release":"wpp2024","variant":"medium","base":{"year":2024,"value":413.135},"values":{"2050":457.2,"2100":291.1},"low_2100":95.64}}]}],"caveat":"Moving together in time does not prove a cause: incomes, cities, education and the era itself act on many indicators at once. These observations suggest where to look, not what causes what.","view_url":"https://macroscope.is/en/chart/?c=ARG&i=tfr,births,internet_users,urban_population,gdp_per_capita_ppp&from=1950&to=2100&past=1","how_to_read":"text: a ready sentence with numbers; data: the same numbers for calculations. The first indicator is the focus the others are compared with. Relationships are checked in levels (r) and in year-to-year changes (r_changes: the changes have their own linear trend removed; significance corrected for autocorrelation); lag is the shift at which changes line up best. UN errors: actual / projected − 1 for population, births and fertility, actual − projected for migration, life expectancy and mothers' age; IMF: actual − forecast. view_url opens the same view on the site."}